This is a question that crops up a lot and one that a few years ago was fairly easily answered. Now days though it is a little murkier although we can have big picture idea of how it works based on a few key factors. The value of NRL Fantasy players fluctuates based on their performances; score at a rate above their price tag and they go up and score worse and they go down.
The first key idea is how does a player’s fantasy scores get converted into a dollar value? At the start of the season NRL Fantasy uses a magic number that they can multiply by a player’s previous year average to get their starting price tag. Based on the salary cap increasing in line with the NRL’s real salary cap the magic number for 2017 will start off at something like 9,200. So, 9,200 multiplied by 2016 average gives the starting price tag. For example, here’s Cam Smith who averaged 66.61 last season:
66.61 x 9,200 = $612,000
Every player then has a Break Even (BE) which represents the score they need to get in order to maintain their price level. Fail to meet the break even and the player’s value goes down, exceed it and the player’s value goes up.
Calculating a break even after round 1 can be a messy business because it isn’t clear how many weeks’ scores are used and how they are weighted. It probably involves some magic and alchemy but loosely the BE is probably a function of the player’s price divided by the magic number multiplied by five less their last four scores. This gives you a number that is probably somewhere in the ball park of what the BE is.
Thankfully this information is really a bit superfluous and the break-even numbers are readily available through NRL Fantasy Coach or published on our website.
As we’ve mentioned, once a player has played a game their price will change based on their performance. The price change formula is pretty straight forward. Take the player’s round score, subtract their break even and multiply by 700 and you’ll have a number +/- $1k of the actual price change. So, let’s say Cam Smith has a BE of 67 and he scores 80.
(80 – 67) x 700 = $9,000
You can expect Smith’s price to rise by $9,000.
Overall it is useful to have a sense for how price changes work but it isn’t something that you need to worry too much about. Take note of a player’s break even and when it gets close to the player’s average you probably know that their price increases are pretty much done.