Renegades Team

Renegades Team

The Renegades Writers combine passion for the game, with a lack of editorial oversight. When they aren't next to the water cooler bitching about that try assist the stats guys missed, they are churning out sports articles that have been widely touted as "readable".

Tuesday, 01 March 2016 11:00

Why don’t they just play through it?

The game’s gone soft. Back in the day, Sattler played 79 minutes with a broken jaw and made that final cover tackle to win the game...... or something? Perhaps those were different times? Or even different games? But it’s gone soft I tell ya! Just like BJH’s soft tip rod. Great for sensitivity but just no grunt these days.

Added to that this year, we have an extraordinary number of first 17 players on the injured list to start the season. In fact, it equates to about 11 percent of all first grade players, not counting up to eight to still face fitness tests! This leads us in to a massive potential hole for us as fantasy coaches. These players will all be coming back at some point. When and whose place they take is the big question. The last thing you want is for your painfully researched, golden secret cash cow to lose his spot before he’s ripe.

So which cows are most at risk of this happening? And which players are going to leave us begging for one more night of action just like a moist bridesmaid on a hen’s night? First case in point is Jamie Buhrer, or more commonly known as “JK’s special man”. A fractured jaw in the 9s saw a good number of us reaching for the clipboard again in frustration with his glass jaw, knees, hip, and any other bone this poor young bugger has broken. All recovery planning points to him coming back around round 4. That awkward round where no cows are ready to milk but some become plainly obvious to see that they are completely milk free. Great for my lactose intolerance, but bad for my team. Do you have him up your sleeve as a sneaky trade in for an injured gun from early in the season? Or do you ignore him for the whole year despite his handy dpp status and reasonable price? My call is to ignore him for the year. Purely on risk factor alone.

Maranta’s mysterious wrist injury is another problem. Is Eden going to make enough cash to justify his selection in your team? After all, how long will this wrist keep young Lachlan out of Bennett’s promised land? My take on this one is that Eden is a great proposition but we know that Maranta is almost as favoured by old flint face as much as Boyd, so will be back sooner rather than later.

The Tigers throw up another conundrum. Cherrington has a chance to make decent cash with no other hooking options healthy. Halatau is back round 2, but in my opinion, is hardly even able to crack hooking duties at the The Bankstown Garden Villa, let alone first grade. Let me put it bluntly, if either of these two end up in your side, please exit the building now, and head over to those two nice men in the rubber jackets. Both Farah and Ballin should have this spot locked up as soon as they are back.

The Roosters have another set of variables as well. JWH and Cordner injuries will be great news for Evans, Napa and Aubo owners. But 3 doesn’t necessarily go into 2 that well. The best thing about this situation for us is that these injuries have quite lengthy recovery times, so the replacements have a good shot at scoring well for a long period. It would still be a big risk to pick all 3 players in your side though. I am hoping for a big return from Evans. He’s the cheapest, with probably the same upside.

This brings us to the back injuries. Moylan has stress fractures in his back and is meant to only be out for a couple of more weeks. Some dedicated H2H players have been toying with picking him now to save a trade down the track. Serious overallers should not even contemplate this idea. The trouble with these types of injuries is that there is not a great degree of confidence in predicting recovery times. For any fracture, 6-8 weeks is accepted as average recovery. Back stress fractures are notorious for slow healing, very difficult to get accurate medical imaging and can recur with very little warning. For me, this makes owning Moylan very risky and would suggest holding off to see if he recovers.

I hope TLT was good for you. It was for me. But be sure to consider the injury and suspension return dates of missing players before you lock your cows in. Happy milking.

ROUND ONE — So many injuries already Eels v Broncos, Thursday 8pm Missing: Lachlan Maranta (wrist), Jack Reed (shoulder); Anthony Watmough (knee, shoulder)

Sea Eagles v Bulldogs, Friday 8pm Missing: Jamie Buhrer (jaw); Brett Morris (knee), David Klemmer (suspended)

Raiders v Panthers, Saturday 3pm Missing: Adam Clydsdale (shoulder); George Jennings (shoulder), Matt Moylan (back)

Tigers v Warriors, Saturday 5.30pm Missing: Luke Brooks (suspension), Dene Halatau (suspension), Matt Ballin (knee), Robbie Farah (knee), Justin Hunt (back); Thomas Leuluai (knee), Ligi Sao (shoulder)

Cowboys v Sharks, Saturday 7.30pm Missing: Ray Thompson (ankle)

Roosters v Rabbitohs, Sunday 4pm Missing: Mitchell Pearce (disciplinary), Boyd Cordner (pectoral), Jared Waerea-Hargreaves (knee); Luke Keary (suspended), George Burgess (suspended), Tom Burgess (ankle)

Titans v Knights, Sunday 6.30pm Missing: Kane Elgey (knee), Luke Douglas (suspended), Nene Macdonald (knee); Tariq Sims (suspended), Sione Mata’utia (suspended), James McManus (concussion)

Storm v Dragons, Monday 7pm Missing: Tyson Frizell (back), Dylan Farrell (back), Mose Masoe (knee)

RACING THE CLOCK Cameron Munster (knee), Billy Slater (shoulder), James Graham (ribs/concussion), Danny Wicks (shoulder), Dean Whare (calf), Reagan Campbell-Gillard (shoulder), Blake Austin (shoulder), Adam Reynolds (foot), Kieran Foran (hamstring)

Dr. Renegade

Sunday, 28 February 2016 11:00

Late Mail Busters

You love your NRL. You’re either involved with a Fantasy team, submitting your tips religiously, having a small (or not so small) wager on a game or eight, or some combination of the three.

You’ve watched the games religiously. You’ve seen Johnathan Thurston limp off after 60 minutes. Then, come Tuesday, the team lists are released. You scan the Cowboys line up, and you see Thurston is named. You’re still a bit edgy so you wait for the Late Mail sites. You read:

“Despite coming off early last weekend, Johnathan Thurston is a definite starter on Sunday against the Bulldogs.”

You let out a sigh of relief. You set him as your starting half, you tip the Cowboys, you place your bets. Then the game rolls around, the team lists update an hour before kick-off…and NO THURSTON!!! The Bulldogs win, you end up with 11 points from an auto emergency, you lose your head to head matchup, your perfect tipping round is in tatters, your multibet is in the toilet, and the world is a terrible place.

It’s frustrating, on a “bang your head on the table” level. No doubt the Late Mail sites mean well, but that’s not much consolation when bad information leads to these dark places. You want them held accountable for the bum steer they’ve given you.

Well, I wanted to do something. I needed inspiration, and I found it outside the NRL. I’m a WWE fan, and there is no shortage of websites out there that speculate on future matches, storylines, and potential injuries. These are called “dirtsheets” amongst wrestling fans, and for years they’ve been feeding “facts” that claim to be “sourced”. But they get it wrong so often. So the guys from a podcast called Ring Rust Radio took a stand. They started a segment, “Dirtsheet Busters”, where they summarise a week’s worth of dirtsheets, and expose them.

In the same spirit, I bring you Late Mail Busters. Every week, this article will look back at the sites that publish Late Mail, and report on what they got right and not so right. Each Late Mail site will have a success rate. Hopefully, as the season progresses, Fantasy coaches, tipsters, and gamblers will see a pattern emerge, where they will know how much faith they can place in each site.

The Late Mail sources that will be included are the NRL Late Mail, News Limited Late Mail (Telegraph/Courier Mail/Foxsports Supercoach), and Wacko’s Whispers. If you know any other sites, let me know, and I’ll include them. The nitty gritty of how it all works is listed below if you’re interested in the nuts and bolts and how it will all be calculated. But the main purpose of this is to figure out just who to believe. The truth is out there…

Late Mail Busters: How It All Works

  • Every Friday at 6 p.m. (Australian Eastern Standard time) reported team changes from NRL Late Mail, Supercoach Late Mail, Wacko’s Whispers, and any other Late Mail sites will be recorded. They do update over the weekend, but not all Fantasy coaches are in a position to take advantage of later information.
  • Sources must be available to the general public. It’s all well and good if you’ve got a mate that knows a guy, and all due respect to well-connected people in the Renegades group, but Renegades isn’t available to everyone. However, if they run a website or a blog where their info is available to the public, they’re fair game.
  • Likewise, any tweets will not be included. Normally the tweeted information ends up in Late Mail anyway. The exception to the rule is Wacko’s Whispers, as the site doesn’t update. Any tweets from Wacko before the Friday 6 p.m. cut-off will be included.
  • Reported changes will be categorised as
    • They’re Out Of Here - Players listed as definitely out
    • There’s A Feeling - Players listed as 50% chance or more of being out. Sites may use language like “under a cloud”, “battling an injury”, “in doubt”, etc.
    • Plans May Change - Players listed as more than 50% chance of playing. Language used includes “likely to play”, “should be okay”, etc.
    • Nothing To See Here - Players listed as definitely in, despite injury speculation.
    • Musical Chairs - Positional switches within the 17, including bench players swapping with listed starters.
    • The Replacements - Players listed as replacements for late injury withdrawals. It’s all well and good to say the Tigers’ winger may be out, but if it’s suggested Josh Addo-Carr will come in, and Jason Taylor decides to play Kyle Lovett there, that doesn’t really help anyone.
  •      Scoring will be as follows:
    • Success rates will be reported for all categories, as well as overall.
    • If a site lists 8 potential changes, and scores 4 correct, the score is 4/8 or 50%
    • If a site lists multiple potential replacements the score is proportional. If a site lists a player as out, but lists two potential replacements, they will score 0.5 for their correct selection.
    • Scores are assigned according to player designation. If a player is under a cloud, the Late Mail says he is out, and he misses the game, they are marked correct. If they say he is more likely to play and he misses the game, they are marked incorrect.
  • Common sense will be applied. For example, Jamie Lyon may be a late withdrawal, and Matt Parcell is brought in. The NRL Team List page shows Parcell as Lyon’s replacement in the centres. But the game starts, Parcell plays dummy half, Koroisau stands at five-eighth, and Dylan Walker is in the centres. That line up will be marked as correct.

So join me each week as we bust the late mail and find out who you should put your faith in and who you should ignore.

Gio Puglisi

 

Sunday, 28 February 2016 11:00

Don't get caught without Surgess

To Surgess or not to Surgess. That is not the question.

It seems that just like assholes, everyone has an opinion on whether picking Sam Burgess is all it’s cracked up to be this season. Everyone wants him, but a few are tipping him for a slow start and are taking the punt on another player to score more, at least for the first few weeks.

It doesn’t really matter if you think he will be slow to adjust to this NRL season or not after his year of grabbing more cash than the Thai hooker JG found overseas in a ditch. Union is a different game for sure, and those of us who have played it are all GREAT experts on how it will affect big Sammy (is the sarcasm font working?). I for one don’t think he will have any problems adjusting to the pace of this season; he played (albeit very badly) in a Rugby World Cup. It wasn’t tiddlywinks. The ultra-high stakes of a RWC is not going to be less pressure than the first 3 rounds of an NRL season. And for that reason, I don’t think his fitness or pace will be any concern at all.

But the other and even more compelling reason to have him locked into your side is not about him being slightly under-priced. It’s not about him being the only Burgess left standing and the only real option for an engine room player at the Rabbits. It is the plain and simple fact that every single serious Fantasy coach will have him.

What this really means is that IF it is an error to pick him, and IF he is off the pace for the first few weeks, the error is a small one. This is because the largest part of the field that will be challenging you for the title of all round Grand Poobah champ this year will still be level with you. But if he comes out and really brains it, scoring his 60 plus points each week, the error of not picking him is magnified to a massive extent. Sure, Wade Graham is an awesome player, sexy as sin, and on the way up, but picking him as a POD instead of Surgess is a sure-fireway to be 30 points behind the leaders after 3 weeks.

Then, if Sammy plays as well as we all think he still can, he’s also out of your price range almost for good. Or at the very least, until you cash out a cow or two in 6-8 weeks. The better option is to have a really good read of the Fantasy Prospectus to have a look at other value players that are going to score better than their price indicates due to increased minutes, a change of role, or change of club. This allows you the luxury of making a trade if it doesn’t quite work out without being out of contention for anything other than a box of tissues. A low ownership player that doesn’t quite gun it is not going to damage your overall ranking as much as a higher ownership player that does gun it that you don’t own.

We all love saying how “I picked the POD of the year”, and “Aubo this year will move to gun status”, but unless you are sure of the points increase (or decrease) reasons, there is no reason to grab that player because of his lack of ownership. Lack of high ownership in itself is an indicator of past and likely future performance. The selection of PODs becomes really important for your lower priced and/or rookie players. We all love a middy or two, and perhaps the most satisfying (apart from finishing in the top 16,000) event in my Fantasy life was picking the rise and rise of Seggy from middy to keeper status over the last couple of years.

But Sam Burgess is not a middy, he’s more of a cut price keeper, so the risk of not owning him from the start is huge. And the risk of actually owning him from kick off is negligible. And as Packy Man so eloquently stated about Sam Burgess, “He’s a fkn cyborg dude! He’s going to be immense straight up!” I fully agree with this sentiment. He won the Churchill Medal with a depressed fracture of his cheekbone the last time he played in the NRL. He’s good. Damn good. So unless you’re damned sure of your magical POD, best to chuck him in now.

Dr. Renegade

Friday, 05 February 2016 11:00

An open letter as the season approaches

This is an open letter about happiness, sorrow, excitement and guilt. The season is upon us and with it come all of the emotions of a pimply faced teenager getting his first alone time with a Farmers lingerie catalogue.

Team list posts are starting to overtake show me your best meme posts. Rivalries that have heated up over multiple years provide everyone else entertainment while we wait for the best day of the year- the first TLT.

To the sorrow, its not actually sorrow for me but sorrow for the partners who realise that yet again they are going to have to pretend to enjoy league. Is sorrow even the right word? Probably not but it looked good in the first line. Fantasy rules in our house through the NRL season. I don't know what was worse, getting heat for being on renegades all weekend or having to drag her off it now.

I know when I am getting excited for league because skate videos get replaced by NRL ones. I watched a Shaun Johnson highlight clip today, my heart fluttered, I sat up in my seat and yet again was taken to a place that was uncomfortably happy. Don't lie you have all felt it too.

I will happily pretend to be a super dad and offer to get up early on a Saturday morning with our son, but really it's so I can watch the replay of the late game from the night before. I'll happily be good guy Glenn and watch league. Its educational for him after all. The 9's weekend is the perfect way to kick start the season. Its short party style league that has all the things I love the most, big hits, bigger sidesteps and a ridiculous amount of tries.

#BBB #rippa

Renegade Boss Glenn O'Callahan

Wednesday, 30 September 2015 10:00

SFP Grand Final Position Preview

BY Joey this is why we play fantasy footy!!!!

It can be tough to hide the excitement – the biggest game of the fantasy season, the first ever all-Queensland Grand Final  this Sunday with accompanying ‘fairy tale / heartbreak’ stories for two of the game’s greatest fantasy players, and last but not nearly least there is the prospect of sharing in $10,000 cash in Sports Fantasy Pro’s 2015 NRL Championship Challenge.

What a game it will be! What a build-up!

Now, for those coaches out there who like selecting a team based off who is better looking, who high-fives the kids when running out of the race or whose mascot might win in a hypothetical fisticuffs, let me just say wally-speed to you on your quest to claim the ultimate fantasy prize.

But for those coaches who like to look at some real exposed form and get down into the statistical nitty gritty well, you better get all your work done before you read on because once you start perusing the Grand Final Form Guide it’s all you’ll be able to think about all week!!

2015 Sports Fantasy Pro Championship – Grand Final

 

Fullback

Lachlan Coote (Cowboys)

Price: $334,950            Last Start:  12.60          3 Game Av:  17.4                 5 Game Av: 23.26

Analysis: Very quiet game from Coote down in Melbourne has seen his price tag plummet. Interestingly Coote is one of the few fullbacks that doesn’t seem to cash in big when his side is on top. When the Cows are on song Thurston runs the left, Morgan gets the offensive stats on the right and invariably is the one backing up down the middle given his speed. Coote fulfils his role in this side perfectly but unfortunately that role is not conducive to high fantasy output. 11 Runs last week not nearly enough for a fullback. Can bump his score up around 30 with a few last-pass try assists on the sweeping right to left plays but given the near success the Cows had going down Milford’s edge three weeks ago I just cant see Coote going big here.

Predicted Score: 18.5pts

 

Darius Boyd (Broncos) 

Price:  $287,700           Last Start: 38.60              3 Game Av: 27.3               5 Game Av: 18.4

Analysis: Darius was on the verge of drifting into fantasy obscurity before returning 38.60pts last week against the Roosters. Despite the decent high 30’s score his five game average is at a woeful 18.4pts. The intercept was a gift, no arguments there, but his 21 carries against was what caught my eye. He was involved. Doubtless coach Bennett will have him fired up for this game and ask for plenty more of what he saw last week. Links in left and right and in big games will not drop off to a winger on kick returns but set the standard with a hard carry back.

Predicted Score: 26pts

 

Centre/ Wing

Kane Linnett (Cowboys)

Price: $470,400            Last Start:  14.20          3 Game Av:  22.83                 5 Game Av: 27.74

Analysis: Had a shocker in Melbourne. Just 8 tackles and 14 runs from a centre that coaches can usually bank on returning high 20’s. Will Chambers did a good job on him defensively but the Cows scoring all their points on the right or through the middle was also a factor. Has the big job of containing Hodges this Sunday which always leads to a missed tackle or two, but certainly his work rate will be up on last Saturday. In the form Thurston and Cooper are in it will be hard for coaches to not take Linnett in this one given the space and opportunities he will likely get. Back the 5 game average which would be over 30 had he not failed last week.

Predicted Score: 28pts

 

Justin O’Neill (Cowboys)

Price: $456,750            Last Start:  46.70          3 Game Av:  31.30            5 Game Av: 26.36

Analysis: O’Neill’s form over the last three weeks has been very solid. Surprised plenty of coaches last week with a huge 46.70 return. A lot of the pre-game thought last week was that O’Neill would be the man missed by either Morgan showing then going, or hitting Feldt on the outside after going around O’Neill’s man. Was clear when these two teams met three weeks ago that had Morgan not been returning from injury and lacking confidence that O’Neill could have gone large and I see no reason why that has changed here. The Cowboys targeted Milford and Reed three weeks ago and Blake Ferguson showed the Cows exactly how well Jack reed can defend his line last weekend If O’Neill gets good ball he will do similar with his speed and agility, but it all comes down to the decisions that Morgan makes close to the line, fancy he will be given a directive to run hard and use O’Neill as a decoy to hold Reed in place. Price tag reflects last week’s score but still well worth taking.

Predicted Score: 27pts

 

Corey Oates (Broncos) 

Price:  $427,350           Last Start: 28.30               3 Game Av: 20.80               5 Game Av: 26.18

Analysis: Great work rate coming out of trouble in his own half and runs like a 7th forward. Great finisher. His base stats say you can bank on 18-20 points from Oates before he breaks a line or scores a try which will tempt plenty of coaches here given there are some backs in this Challenge who can go missing for a game and return a low teens points score. Also an appealing option for coaches looking to spread the offensive points potential but not wanting to put Jack Reed into their side (ever).

Predicted Score: 21pts

 

Jordan Kahu (Broncos) 

Price:  $407,400         Last Start: 18.20               3 Game Av: 22.33               5 Game Av: 23.35

Analysis: For an unheralded fantasy back Kahu has been ticking the scoreboard over nicely during the finals series. Being outside Hodges is a double-edged sword given the Origin star’s habit of stepping back on the inside and his reluctance to feed a winger unless he is clear. But Kahu is cheap as chups and will take the conversions for those 20mins that parker is off the field. Managed just 11.8 points last time these teams met and his 8 runs last week highlights his main problem of work rate.

Predicted Score: 17.5pts

 

Kyle Feldt (Cowboys)

Price: $364,350            Last Start:  14.70           3 Game Av:  17.60                5 Game Av: 17.16

Analysis: Expecting a sharp improvement here from Feldt on exposed form. Possibility that he will take the conversions is slim but still worth considering an extra 2-6 points from kicks could be vital. Can see Thurston sitting a few balls up on Reeds head and given Feldt’s leaping ability there is a good chance one will stick. Add that to the fact he is on the right wing of the most destructive edge in the final series and you can see he has plenty of upside. 9 runs (3 busts) is the big problem with Feldt if he can boost that up to 12 or 13 on Sunday his size and speed will take care of the rest. Just needs his hands on the footy more, but his price and upside should appeal strongly to coaches here.

 Predicted Score: 23pts

 

Justin Hodges (Broncos) 

Price:  $363,300           Last Start: 21.00               3 Game Av: 18.76            5 Game Av: 24.20

Analysis: Whether he should be playing or not is no longer the debate – just what are we going to get from him in what will be his last ever game that is the big question. Backing the Test and Origin centre to have a big game here, one based around offensive work rate. Will be in everything. Expect his run count to climb up around 20 and if that happens, the half dozen tackle busts and a couple of offloads will have him past 30pts before he breaks a line.

Predicted Score: 35pts

 

Jack Reed (Broncos) 

Price:  $360,150           Last Start: 25.50               3 Game Av: 23.33               5 Game Av: 21.82

Analysis: Rocks or diamonds has seldom been so perfectly personified in one footballer as it is in Jack Reed. Before Boyd gave him that inside ball Reed was on single digits. If you take out his try and linebreak Reed’s stats of 5 runs and 14 tackles (2 missed) made for very poor reading indeed. Really get the feeling that the GF will be decided by the kind of game Reed has. Given the offensive form of Morgan and O’Neill and the exceptional cover defence of Lowe and Morgan I cant see Reed not stinking this Challenge up. 15.7 three weeks ago when they last played is a good indication for coaches.

Predicted Score: 14pts

 

Antonio Winterstein (Cowboys)

Price: $339,150            Last Start:  11.40          3 Game Av:  20.96                 5 Game Av: 25.28

Analysis: Pretty clear from the above stats that Winty has been getting progressively more disappointing as the finals series has worn on. Fortunately for coaches that only makes him cheaper and therefore more appealing. 11 runs, 4 tackles and one error was all he recorded in Melbourne but coaches shouldn’t read too much into his form slump as it is more a result of the Cowboys success on the right side. Like Linnett on his inside, Winterstein has just got to sit back and enjoy the right side attack take up some of the offensive slack in recent weeks, but both Winty and the Cows will like his chances against the youngster in Jordan Kahu especially close to the line. Hodges does have a bad habit of trying to overcompensate for lesser defenders close to his line. If that happens on Sunday Thurston will see it immediately and Winterstein will reap the rewards via a bullet, chip kick or out the back to Coote then onto Winterstein.

Predicted Score: 32pts

 

Five Eighth

Anthony Milford (Broncos) 

Price:  $718,200           Last Start: 39.50               3 Game Av: 30.93               5 Game Av: 35.02

Analysis: If your looking on pure numbers Milford will seem a very appealing partner to Thurston in your teams’ halves. Returned a handy 27 points when last these two sides met, and last week he carried the ball a very mouth-watering 14 times for three busts, four offloads, a line break and a try. There is nothing at all wrong with his form…but something just tells me the kid may need this experience before finding his feet on the big stage. This game has ‘learnt a lot of valuable lessons as I went on to dominate the NRL for a decade’ written all over it for Milf and I expect the Cowboys to target him heavily with both speed and size.

Predicted Score: 17pts

 

Michael Morgan (Cowboys)

Price: $525,000            Last Start:  41.00           3 Game Av:  34.23                 5 Game Av: 29.12

Analysis: Probably the toughest call for coaches in this Challenge is whether to take Morgan or Milford. Morgan has scored back to back double’s so coaches should be aware that his score will plummet should he not find the line. Given Thurston will be in majority of teams Morgan looks an even bigger ‘all or nothing’ selection. On the other hand he is in amazing form,  is the Cowboys go-to man and if the game three weeks ago is anything to go by he will absolutely destroy the Broncos left edge defence. Will be too strong for Milford and to quick for Reed. Churchill Medal looms. 

Predicted Score: 37pts

 

Halfback

Johnathan Thurston (Cowboys)

Price: $571,200            Last Start:  55.60           3 Game Av:  47.66                 5 Game Av: 39.00

Analysis: Ok so three things to do for coaches here. First look at his five game average. Ok now his three game. And lastly look what he did last week. If that doesn’t talk you into Thurston nothing will. First man picked.

Predicted Score: 51pts

 

Ben Hunt (Broncos)

Price:  $500,850           Last Start: 40.00               3 Game Av: 39.46               5 Game Av: 33.42

Analysis: Ben ‘Stuart McGill’ Hunt has done everything asked of him and more this season yet it will be hard for coaches to give him the #7 jersey ahead of four-time Dally M Medallist and fantasy god Johnathan Thurston. Scored just 22 points against the Cowboys in Week 1 of the finals and that looks pretty close to the mark here in this one.  Just 70k cheaper than Thurston which will not be enough to convince majority of coaches to take the risk.  

Predicted Score: 22pts

 

Lock Forward

Corey Parker (Broncos)

Price:  $535,500          Last Start: 37.80               3 Game Av: 37.10               5 Game Av: 38.22

Analysis: Might not look like too much in this lock battle to coaches selecting on last-start form only, but when you take a closer look at Parker’s extended five-round average it becomes pretty clear that he is very nearly a must-have man. Any player who can guarantee you 36-40 points no matter what happens in the game is pure gold. Expect the silver fox to be on his A game in this one in terms of work rate.

Predicted Score: 44pts

 

Jason Taumalolo (Cowboys)

Price: $363,300            Last Start:  33.10           3 Game Av:  27.26                 5 Game Av: 25.40

Analysis: If there is a player in this Challenge that can absolutely smash his recent form out of the park it is the Lolo-comotive. His five game average of just over 25 points is a fair indication of what he can produce with the limited minutes he is getting under coach Green. Last weekend’s 17 hitups and 20 tackles is absolute premium work rate considering he is only playing 50 minutes of game time. That 33 points against the Storm could have rocketed to mid 40’s had he broken the line or crossed for a try. Undoubtedly a risk to take him given Parker is the alternative, but sometimes coaches must take a risk or three to achieve victory – and the 170k saving will appeal to coaches who have stacked their side full of talent everywhere else. If Lolo can replicate his 17 carries against Brisbane expect him to climb up close to 40 points.

Predicted Score: 35pts

 

Backrow

Gavin Cooper (Cowboys)

Price: $585,900            Last Start:  51.10           3 Game Av:  37.33                 5 Game Av: 37.96

Analysis: Almost priced out of the game here? Very interesting debate with Cooper this week given he is 210k dearer than the next most expensive back rower in Gillett. Last week against the Storm Cooper scored twice, gave one try assist and had two line breaks. That is 29 of his 51 points in three plays. So the big question has to be asked – is he worth it if the Grand Final is a low-scoring game and he doesn’t score? On last weekend’s 7 runs and 32 tackles you’d have to say no. The problem is the Cows have harnessed their middle power game now which comprises of runs fro Scott, Taumalolo, Tamou then Scott again. Then they shift either left or right to Lowe or Cooper – so while his tackling stats remain high, he is not getting his hands on the ball as much which always makes coaches nervous especially when paying out big money. Just can’t see him getting near his score last week and while he may out-point his back row rivals, I don’t see it being by enough to justify the 210k.

Predicted Score: 36pts

 

Matt Gillett (Broncos)

Price:  $372,750           Last Start: 27.80               3 Game Av: 29.56               5 Game Av: 31.02

Analysis: Really consistent performer who is one of the few backrowers that can shift from ultra attacking forward carrying the ball over 15 times, to defensive forward who can make 35+ tackles in a game. Is always good to break a line or bob up for a try as well. Play’s 80 minutes and appeals strongly on price. The Cowboys marker defence cost the big time against the Broncos three weeks ago so expect that Hunt will look in but play out to the likes of Gillett much more in this game.

Predicted Score:32pts

Ethan Lowe (Cowboys)

Price: $357,000          Last Start:  32.50           3 Game Av:  27.23                5 Game Av: 26.10

Analysis: Another back rower who started the year on fire but has plateaued I the last few months. Lowe is in the prime channel to reap some offensive points here floating around Morgan and Thurston and getting to run at Milford all game. Absolutely bombed a try against Brisbane last time they played which would have seen his score in the mid 30’s instead of just 20. Had 16 carries for 180m and 30 tackles against the Storm last week which is very solid. Looks ready for a big game.

Predicted Score: 34pts

 

Alex Glenn (Broncos)

Price:  $342,300           Last Start: 25.60               3 Game Av: 25.03               5 Game Av: 26.50

Analysis: Just don’t know what has happened to Glenn in recent months. He seems to have settled into a groove where busts, breaks and tries aren’t his job anymore, preferring to concentrate simply on defence and carrying the ball safely. Had 13 carries for 150m last weekend but was down on defence with just the 19. But it is the complete lack of danger he presents to a defensive line these days that is the concern. Price is certainly in his favour but it is very hard to look at his 5 game average and expect anything more.

Predicted Score:27pts

 

Hooker

Andrew McCullough (Broncos) 

Price:  $309,750         Last Start: 27.60               3 Game Av: 29.13              5 Game Av: 29.16

Analysis: Ultra consistent performer who coaches can bank on for 35+ tackles a game. That’s 17 points before he touches the footy. Add his 4 or 5 runs a game and coaches can see that even though he is not playing 80 minutes anymore, he is still the safe selection at hooker for coaches looking to bank a mid 20’s score but still hope for a high 30’s one.

Predicted Score: 28pts

Jake Granville (Cowboys)

Price: $258,300            Last Start:  13.70           3 Game Av:  16.06                 5 Game Av: 22.86

Analysis: This is the hail mary player of the Challenge right here. Nothing about his stats is appealing (apart from the price tag) right now, but two months ago this kid was worth over 500k and dominating games. His last three weeks have been pathetic really, but that is in part due to him losing yet more minutes to Kostjaysn / Thompson. Will have learnt plenty from playing the Broncos three weeks ago about when to scoot and in the form his front row are in it is hard to see Granville not getting 2 or 3 great chances to go through the line. But stats don’t lie. 20 tackles and 3 runs is not going to get the Championship cheque here. Capable of a big 40+ score but this one looks beyond him especially given the speed and intensity at which it will be played. If Morgan or Thurston do succumb to injury Granville’s minutes will skyrocket.

Predicted Score: 18pts

 

Front Row

James Tamou (Cowboys)

Price: $368,550            Last Start:  21.90           3 Game Av:  25.80                 5 Game Av: 24.40

Analysis: Started the game last weekend on fire but his work rate dropped off in the second half. Made just 9 tackles but it was his 15 carries that helped his score into the low 20’s. Don’t expect him to be minding the pine for anywhere near as long this time around. 5 game average has been hit hard by a 5.4pt game a month ago. Will have his sights set on a monster 200m+ game and if Green gives him the minutes he may just get there.   

Predicted Score: 28pts

 

Matt Scott (Cowboys)

Price: $367,500            Last Start:  29.90          3 Game Av:  26.63                5 Game Av: 26.74

Analysis:  Unbelievably consistent prop who plays big minutes and always lifts for the big games. Scott will treat this like an origin game and should play 55-60mins. Lock in a 30+ fantasy points score here.  

Predicted Score: 32pts

 

Adam Blair (Broncos) 

Price:  $348,600           Last Start: 32.10               3 Game Av: 25.20               5 Game Av: 29.38

Analysis: Will be plenty of coaches wondering which Blair will turn up to the GF this Sunday – the ultimate tackling, work rate machine Blair or the ‘do what I need to do and nothing more’ Blair. Amazing 5 game average especially given the 20k saving. 14 hit-ups at 150m with 28 tackles – a coach can ask no more from a prop.

Predicted Score:25pts

 

Sam Thaiday (Broncos)

Price:  $325,500           Last Start: 26.30               3 Game Av: 28.00              5 Game Av: 25.66

Analysis:  Coaches know what they will get with Sammy. Always the first hand up for a carry and his 18 against the Roosters shows coaches he doesn’t need to do much more to get into the mid 20’s and beyond. Can pop a pass and bust a tackle with the best of them. Loves the big stage and could be a great point of difference.

Predicted Score: 28pts

 

Interchange

Ben Hannant (Cowboys)

Price: $360,150            Last Start:  26.50           3 Game Av:  24.23                 5 Game Av: 24.74

Analysis:  It is pretty amazing that the big polar bear can return these scores from just 25-30mins of footy. His work rate is second to none and the upseide with Hannant is the massive minutes he can play should injury strike a front line prop or Taumalolo. Must be picked on the bench here given the inconsistent alternatives.

Predicted Score: 25pts

 

Scott Bolton (Cowboys)

Price: $327,600            Last Start:  20.10          3 Game Av:  25.90                 5 Game Av: 25.76

Analysis: A big 39pt game against the Sharks has slightly inflated Bolton’s averages here. His 20.10 (22 tackles, ten hit-ups) against the Storm is a far more accurate reflection of what coaches can expect. But still, anything over 20pts fro your bench is solid. Like Hannant can play on an edge or in the middle should injury strike. Slightly ‘overs’ but if you can afford him take him.

Predicted Score: 18pts

 

John Asiata (Cowboys)

Price: $321,300            Last Start:  17.70           3 Game Av:  16.23                 5 Game Av: 19.32

Analysis: Speaking of overs. Asiata will one day be a fantasy weapon but that is not this day and not this Challenge. Got through a power of work early in the second half against Melbourne when the Cows were on the back foot with 9 hit-ups and 19 tackles from limited minutes. Expect the stars to play longer minutes in the big GF so Asiata will likely be reduced to 20 minutes tops.

Predicted Score: 15pts

 

Jarrod Wallace (Broncos)

Price:  $318,150           Last Start: 17.50               3 Game Av: 23.43               5 Game Av: 24.54

Analysis: Interchange bargain in this Challenge. 9 runs and 20 tackles saw Wallace return a lower fantasy points score than coaches were used too, but one need only look at his 5 game average to know he is capable of better. Should push up into that 20pt mark in this one given the expected pace of the game and again, can play big minutes should injury to a top-liner strike. 

Predicted Score: 21pts

 

Kodi Nikorima (Broncos)

Price:  $234,150           Last Start: 7.70               3 Game Av: 13.36             5 Game Av: 12.36

Analysis: 5 runs, 4 tackles. 2 busts. That is what 7.70pts looks like and coaches will not want to be going anywhere near it in this one. Only case for Nikorima here would be a coach banking on an injury to McCullough, Hunt or Milford early in the game. Big risk to take a player who will return single digits should everything go to plan. Wayne Bennett’s history of giving the rookie’s very few minutes in big games must be factored in also.

Predicted Score: 6pts

 

Mitchell Dodds (Broncos) 

Price:  $194,250           Last Start: 16.90               3 Game Av: 12.70               5 Game Av: 13.70

Analysis: 9 runs and 15 tackles is promising work rate for such a rookie-priced benchy. If he can replicate it against the Cowboys who he scored just 9.3 fantasy points against three weeks ago, then his owners will be extremely happy.

Predicted Score:13pts

 

Joe Ofahengaue (Broncos)

Price:  $183,750           Last Start: 16.7               3 Game Av: 12.50               5 Game Av: 12.22

Analysis: Rookie forward who doesn’t play big minutes going into a game under a coach who doesn’t like giving rookie forwards many minutes – doesn’t bode well for young Joe. Think the wily old coach gave him his GF mins last weekend in just time against the Roosters. 10 carries and 17 tackles was season-high work rate from the youngster.

Predicted Score: 12 pts

 

Roro Kostjaysn (Cowboys)

Price: $175,350            Last Start:  9.70           3 Game Av:  13.26                 5 Game Av: 11.80

Analysis: Like Nikorima Rory will only score well if injury to a key playmaker strikes. Unlike Nikorima, the Cows utility can bank you 10-12 points from his 30-35mins of hooker. Plenty of coaches will simply pick him without thinking too much and just enjoy the guns they can afford with the money saved.  

Predicted Score: 14pts

 

The Wizard

The Wizard comes courtesy of Sports Fantasy Pro

www.sportsfantasypro.com

Fantasy finals feast!
Join in on the $10,000 up for grabs in our 2015 Championship Challenge
Select your team and track your progress on our LIVE Leaderboard

 CHAMPS FB

Tuesday, 29 September 2015 10:00

SFP 2015 NRL Championships – Grand Final!

THIS time next week one lucky (or just really talented) fantasy coach will be enjoying a well-earned sleep in, lovingly spooning their novelty-sized $5,000 winners cheque while they wrestle with the all-important decision of just how many shirts to get ‘2015 SFP NRL Champion’ embroidered on.

….and that coach could be you!

10,000 reasons to play

It might be an all-Queensland grand final but that doesn’t mean that Queenslander’s are the only ones who can claim glory and win big this weekend.

Fantasy footy coaches will have ten thousand reasons to assemble their strongest line-up for the Grand Final on Sunday night as they vie for a share in the $10,000 prize pool on offer in Sports Fantasy Pro’s  inaugural 2015 NRL Championships Grand Final Challenge.

CHALLENGES OPEN WEDNESDAY 12PM

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Anyone can Win

Didn’t make the cut last weekend? Been on holidays sunning the torso on a beach in Bali for three weeks?

If your team didn’t qualify don’t worry, you can still buy-in to the 2015 Championship Grand Final and give yourself a chance to win a share of the massive $10,000 prize pool ($5,000 1st, $3,000 2nd, $2,000 3rd).

Buy-in is $25.

Road to 2015 Championships

Congratulations to the 26 coaches below that made it through the grueling three-week Championships qualification.

rnd 3 champs qualifiers

Most coaches know exactly how well (or poorly) the players in their teams performed over the weekend…but what about the players that you didn’t pick?

Find out where your team could have improved and start that all-important fantasy research early with a look at Sports Fantasy Pro’s Overall Player Fantasy Points Finals (Week Three) album.

Broncos v Roosters

Despite being soundly beaten the top three fantasy points scorers were all Roosters!

RTS, Maloney and Ferguson all scored well in a beaten side.

Storm v Cowboys

Thurston, Cooper, and Morgan were all popular selections but centre Justin O’Neill was the player that helped coaches to the top of the table.

Finals - MEL v NQL

 

Thursday, 24 September 2015 10:00

Sports Fantasy Pro: Prelim Finals Invite

The Prelim’s are finally here! The best weekend of the season is made even better with Sports Fantasy Pro. Whether you are a rookie coach about to embark on your first game of fantasy footy, or a seasoned grey-beard of the fantasy coaching fraternity, Sports Fantasy Pro has got your covered with a host of FREE and Pay-to-Play Challenges all with huge minimum guaranteed prize pool’s.

It’s time to get your coach on!

It all starts on Friday night with the Broncos hosting the Roosters in Brisbane, then we head south to AAMI Park where the Cowboys take on the Storm Saturday night footy. Whether your a Weekly Challenge coach or you enjoy the Single Challenges more, you can find what you need by visiting www.sportsfantasypro.com or by clicking the Challenge links below to go straight into the team selection pages.

 $10,000 SFP CHAMPIONSHIP: WEEK 3 QUALIFIER

Friday night Challenges

Free

Pay-to-Play

Saturday night Challenges

Free

Pay-to-Play

Weekly Challenges

  • WEEKLY: $25   (Time to put your cash where your clipboard is!)

 

FINALS WK 3

Enjoy your Prelim-finals fantasy footy!!

Put your fantasy coaching skills to the ultimate test and track your progress on our LIVE Leaderboard

Good luck coach!

The Wizard

Thursday, 24 September 2015 10:00

SFP NRL Finals Preview – Week Three

THE Grand Final may be the big spectacle that majority of fans are looking forward too, but for footy purists this weekend is as good as it gets – unfortunately for fantasy footy coaches it is also the toughest weekend of the entire season!

SFP CHAMPIONSHIP QUALIFIER WEEK THREE

Spine-tingling dilemmas

Frightening continuity for coaches here with Roosters halfback Mitchell Pearce the only named inclusion from otherwise unchanged line-ups across the four sides.

Majority of coaches will take one look at the teams named and opt for a RTS, Maloney, JT, Smith spine with Parker the likely fifth selection at lock.

It will be a very popular build for Weekly coaches in particular given it covers all four nominated kickers as well as ensuring a really effective spread of offensive points and work rate across the four sides.

But cap restrictions will kick in very quickly from that point.

Given the premium price tag’s attached to Cooper, Guerra and Harris, the backrow looks to be somewhere coaches will have to make a compromise or two, but tough decisions will also need to be made in the outside backs, front row and bench with selections all highly affected by price over preference.

And to make matters worse for coaches, there is no Jackson Hastings priced at $163k sitting on the bench that will play 80mins of halfback.

So where do you make your compromise?

Boyd Cordner is an interesting player this weekend. Named at lock but will shift back to the left edge when the likes of Taukeiaho comes on for Aubusson midway through the first half.

Cordner is an 80 minute player priced $77k cheaper than Parker who plays just 60mins.

In the front row coaches will find selecting Bromwich very difficult given his price and the cheaper alternatives that are all capable of out-scoring him.

Expect Blair to be a popular choice at just $315k after a few poor weeks of 20 and 21 points.

Don’t even get me started on the outside backs.

When fantasy finals roll around my policy on centres and wingers is very similar to that of Wayne Bennet’s philosophy on front rowers – they are handy to have, but you should never pay big dollars for them.

Cheap wingers have just as much chance to score as expensive wingers, and are a great way to ease cap pressure.

Getting a cheap winger with a solid work rate is absolutely ideal.

With two regular starting lock forwards available on the interchange in Finucane and Taukeiaho coaches will have plenty of headaches fitting in the likes of Evans and Hannant.

At some point a bench numpty will have to be chosen to ease cap pressure.

Dodds, Kostjaysn and even big Jordan McLean could find their way into plenty of sides this week given their price tags.

Fantasy finals feast!
Join in on the $40,000 up for grabs in our FREE and Pay-to-Play Finals Series Fantasy Challenges.
Select your team and track your progress on our LIVE Leaderboard
Good Luck!

The Wizard

The Wizard comes to RFS courtesy of Sports Fantasy Pro

www.sportsfantasypro.com

fchamps

Thursday, 24 September 2015 10:00

SFP Fantasy Footy Shorts – Finals Week 3

ARE annoying distractions such as work and family impacting on your comprehensive fantasy research time?  With Fantasy Footy Shorts coaches can get the short, sharp and simple fantasy form while still keeping the ‘board and sponsors’ happy.

First Picked

Cameron Smith ($407,000): The only 80 minute hooker this weekend. Oh yeh, and he kicks goals! We will be in everything the Storm do offensively but it is his defensive work rate that ensures he will clear 30 points. No other hooker offers those guarantees this week. Pay the cash.

Must have

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck ($549,000): Get used to the name – he is a fantasy god in the making and we will be (hopefully) waxing lyrical about his awesomeness for the best part of a decade to come. 272.5 points in six games at 45.4pts per game. Not even Gallen gets to those numbers at his best. Only knock is this week he comes up against the best defence in the land. But still, he is my must-have man this week for sure.

Man Most Likely

Johnathan Thurston ($495,000): Had a quiet night last Saturday against Cronulla and still scored 48.5 fantasy points. Expect the champ to have a monster game here in Melbourne with so much at stake. Half century looms.

Bargain

Cooper Cronk ($253,000): May seem like a funny selection given JT’s section above, but Cronk is literally less than half his price thanks to a 9.6pts against the Roosters. Before that he was averaging a steady 21pts and is more than capable of a 30+ score especially if his combination with Proctor is on.

False Economy

Shaun Kenny-Dowall ($477,000): Was ticking along nicely with scores of 28.6 and 29.5 before last week’s three-try 56 point effort. Do not expect anything near that in this game against the best defence in the comp.

One to Watch

Cameron Munster ($558,000): IF (big ‘if’) the Cowboys show up in Mlebourne thinking they have it won the Storm are more than capable of putting 20 points on them in a heartbeat, and this kid will be the one delivering the final passes and/or scoring them himself. Knows he needs a big game to prove to people that he belongs in the Storm spine in 2016 and his work rate is second to none. Like Milford his price makes him an excellent (albeit ridiculously expensive) Point of Difference selection this week.

Approach with caution

Marika Koroibete ($340,000): Bringing a foot (cut ankle) into the game – given how well Tohu Harris plays at left centre, if the flying Fijian starts to drop his intensity he could get the hook early. Bellamy will like Harris’ chances against former Stormer Justin O’Neill on that edge too so while Koroibete is a legitimate fantasy gun in his own right, there are a few factors that say ‘take on trust’ in this one.

Best of the Bench

Dale Finucane ($384,000): Can’t see Craig Bellamy not starting Finucane given the firepower the Cows have got and the need for Melbourne to bank some points early. Expect him to get 50-55mins. Great work rate. Should clear 30 comfortably. Forget his 21.5pts against the roosters off the bench two weeks ago. That was his back from injury game. Capable of high 30’s / low 40’s with those minutes.

Fantasy finals feast!

Join in on the $40,000 up for grabs in our FREE and Pay-to-Play Finals Series Fantasy Challenges.

Select your team and track your progress on our LIVE Leaderboard

Good Luck!

The Wizard

The Wizard comes to RFS courtesy of Sports Fantasy Pro

www.sportsfantasypro.com

fchamps

 

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