Renegades Team

Renegades Team

The Renegades Writers combine passion for the game, with a lack of editorial oversight. When they aren't next to the water cooler bitching about that try assist the stats guys missed, they are churning out sports articles that have been widely touted as "readable".

Thursday, 17 September 2015 10:00

SFP NRL Finals Week Two: Which rake do you take?

Michael Ennis ($333,000)        Jake Friend ($313,000)

Jake Granville ($244,000)       Damien Cook ($449,000)

We start with the most expensive option in young Damien Cook and while many coaches will be turned off by his price tag, they would do well to note that his 31.1 against the Dragons last Saturday afternoon didn’t include any line breaks or offensive assist stats whatsoever.

Pretty solid points base to work from, if he can find a lazy Rosters forward and go for a scoot or two and find a support runner, that 31 turns into mid 40’s very quickly.

Going down in price we come to the in-form, ultra-experienced Michael Ennis who has almost single-handedly carried the Sharks attack over the last two months.

There are a few worries though for coaches, despite his decent return of 32.5pts against the Bunnies, his base stats were poor.

Just 30 tackles along with four missed with two penalties (stock standard for Ennis) are not stats that jump off the page.

He only ran three times in 80 minutes last Sunday, and frankly his two try assists helped pad what would have otherwise been a very poor score considering the Sharks dominated the Rabbitohs.

Coaches taking Ennis are effectively backing him to bank at least two try assists which in Townsville against a desperate Cowboys side is a gutsy (silly) call at best.

Jake Friend comes in just under Ennis in price. He has been very consistent and has the advantage of being able to be relied on for high work rate (39 tackles against the Storm in 65mins) as well as offensive cream such as line break and try assists.

The deterrent for Friend fanciers though is the return of Pearce and the likelihood that Hastings and/or Aubusson will take 15-20 of Friend’s minutes.

Last but certainly not least we come to the youngster Jake Granville.

A lowly 17.1pts against the Broncos has seen a dramatic price drop (plunge).

The speed of the game really hurt Granville last week, and it was all he could do to keep pace let alone scoot and break the line with his prodigious speed.

But he will be better for the run and absolutely burning for redemption as it was his defensive lapse that gave Hunt his try last week.

29 tackles and six runs (51m) is solid but no offensive stats whatsoever shows coaches what happens when a 50-minute hooker is contained defensively.

Granville is easily the biggest risk/reward prospect here, but at home against an big, old (albeit experienced) Sharks pack coaches may just be in for a sublime 50 minutes of fantasy footy from the young kid.

Score Predictions

Cook: 32pts

Ennis: 22pts

Friend: 27pts

Granville: 39pts

Verdict

If coaches can afford the price tag Cook has shown over the last month that he can clear 30 before breaking a line which in finals is very hard to turn down.

But at $244k Granville not only looks worth the risk but will free up valuable cap for other premium selections.

The Wizard

The Wizard comes to RFS courtesy of Sports Fantasy Pro

 

Thursday, 17 September 2015 10:00

SFP NRL Finals Preview - Week Two

FOUR teams, two games, one monster fantasy headache! From fullback to front row and everywhere in between, Week Two of the 2015 fantasy footy finals presents a plethora of coaching conundrums in each and every position…

If Week One of the fantasy finals reinforced anything it is that in the cauldron of high-intensity finals it is the players with the high work rates that invariably score highest.

This may sound like common sense but during the regular season it is seldom the case.

So why is finals footy strategy so different?

Well it is simple – finals are all about defence.

Offensive stats like line breaks, tries and to a lesser extent tackle busts and offloads dry up around finals because defences get tighter, stick tackles more often and in general concede less points.

For fantasy coaches this means two things.

Firstly, the three quarter line selections are far more of a luck box than during regular season games when certain teams can be relied on to flog certain other teams.

Selecting backline players on try-scoring or offensive potential is folly at this time of year.

A far better strategy is to make selections based on pure hit up and tackle work rate.

Price is a massive factor here.

Before sticking with a backline selection ask yourself what that player is likely to post on a bad day when all they do is come close to their average hitup/tackle stats.

The second big factor in fantasy finals is realising that for the forwards almost the exact opposite is true.

Minutes and work rate matter big time come finals. Selecting a pack that works hard and play big minutes is half the battle this time of year, no matter the cost.

The Wizard

The Wizard comes to RFS courtesy of Sports Fantasy Pro

Tuesday, 15 September 2015 10:00

SFP NRL Fantasy Championships

AN absolutely brutal first weekend of fantasy finals has seen a plethora of 2015 SFP NRL Championships title favourites miss the Week 1 cut line (93) after several proven fantasy superstars failed to deliver decent points for coaches.

Alive or kicking-in?

Did you make the cut? Are you still alive in the champs? Or do you need to dip into the team’s off-season beer fund to get yourself back into the running for the title of inaugural NRL Fantasy Champion?
Whatever position you find yourself in worry not, when the Champs re-open on Wednesday at midday coaches who did not make the cut will be able to buy back in for $5.
To find out more about how the Championships work and how to join in CLICK HERE.

 

 Week One Qualifiers

A big congratulations to the Top 10 finishers from Week 1.

LEADERBOARD 1

LEADERBOARD 2

Come on renegades, only one representative in the top10! lets show them who the true fantasy bosses are. If you haven't already add the RNGD tag to your name so they know that we ARE fantasy kings.

Full list (in order 1-93) of successful Week 1 coaches;

  1. Pestyhunter
  2. kennybirdman
  3. Cosmic Penguins
  4. RNGD Ross
  5. NHC crusader
  6. Dv091
  7. BunchofMaroons
  8. jpotts91
  9. nippa81
  10. Radius1977
  11. SenSei
  12. Kahuna
  13. fiiish
  14. dj_rath
  15. RNGD T5 Triads
  16. NHC Dizmo
  17. abruzzi804
  18. Bilko007
  19. Keyser Soze
  20. Geerthy
  21. Dlew05
  22. Lachstar5
  23. Hoopdreamz
  24. Johnnysox
  25. fincho
  26. dean.kerrison
  27. RNGD Tim
  28. Maestro
  29. pipes
  30. Dieharder
  31. artvandelay123
  32. Dwayn0
  33. tOp Of ThE tAbLe
  34. Halestorm
  35. kiwicanuck177
  36. PetesPunishers
  37. Alphens88
  38. Titans07
  39. Benhepburn
  40. RNGD Barking Ghecko
  41. darilyn
  42. Plonkers
  43. Obit11
  44. nick hart
  45. lucasd151
  46. AnetaC
  47. DragonBill
  48. RNGD Ryan-Kampf
  49. NHC Mrs What
  50. Riley93thomas
  51. barty1961
  52. RNGD Cbiscuit
  53. thacres104
  54. tingster1
  55. Loga2201
  56. Johnr2d2
  57. lozzag
  58. t_seeto
  59. Swampduck
  60. Hunter
  61. Winner
  62. Theraceison
  63. kenno76
  64. nadanator
  65. RP21
  66. RNGD Katamelie
  67. Uncle Benny
  68. Hungrimatt
  69. cavalier666
  70. zebbie
  71. NHC Slippery
  72. jongid
  73. Alexis
  74. RNGD-PHILL94
  75. Underdogs
  76. Sharkies
  77. Qldian
  78. Brendo
  79. RNGD Mully
  80. rorters
  81. RNGD Kient
  82. NHC Franny
  83. RNGD Gorillaz
  84. Rumpid Raiders
  85. brunoc64
  86. RNGD Phoenician
  87. Selvaggio
  88. nads78a
  89. mooy33
  90. bevan
  91. Black Magic
  92. Prancer
  93. professorPeteSpace

According to the Chinese calendar, 2015 is the Year of the Sheep.

If you believe in superstition, coincidence or even fate, the Chinese calendar might explain why the Kiwis won the only Rugby League test to be played this year. Ironically, at the same venue the 2006 test was played. The losing sides in both 2006 and 2015 only scored 12 points.

Enough of that though, let me explain why any Bronco fan would be getting a bit excited if they believe in coincidence. Let us take a trip through memory lane all the way back to the NRL season of 2006.

In 2006 the Broncos started the season with an absolute smashing handed to them by the boys up north, the Cowboys. 36-4 was the score line on a Sunday afternoon at Suncorp Stadium. The only try coming to the Broncos that afternoon was through the hands of a younger Justin Hodges, as he ran towards the try line with ball out in front. He straightened up and delivered a pass that found a very young Darius Boyd on the chest, scoring in the 63rd Minute.

With a smashing in the first round I’m sure everyone thought (me included) “well here comes a long season for the Broncos faithful”.

Round 13 of 2006 comes around the Broncos sit top of the table. In this same year, a few other important things happened.

Darren Lockyer scoops up a wayward pass to score a try in the State of Origin decider that takes the State of Origin shield off the holders in NSW.  Lockyer also received the Wally Lewis medal for the player of the series.

Broncos in 2006 managed to go all the way to win the NRL Grand Final. They sent out a much loved club champion in Shane Webcke as a retiring Premiership winner.

So, fast forward 9 Years to 2015. Make sure you are sitting down.

2015; Round 1 Suncorp Stadium, the Broncos start the season with an absolute smashing. Rabbitohs piled on, you guessed it, 36 points. The Broncos only managed 1 try, and amazingly, it came from the hands of a much older Justin Hodges as he lined up the defence and drew them in for a final pass to go to Gillett who scored in the corner in the 53rd minute. Who else thought we would be in for a long season?

Rd 13 comes along of the 2015 season the Broncos have found form and are sitting on the top of the table.

Have you got my drift yet?

State of Origin comes around and after the Maroons had lost the series the year before, the Blues were current holders of the shield. In the decider the Maroons smash the Blues in game 3 to win the Series and get the shield back. But wait, another Bronco in Corey Parker takes home the Wally Lewis Medal.

We now sit at the business end of the season. Broncos atop the Ladder, as Justin Hodges’ future lays balanced in the air with rumours becoming thicker that he will retire at years end.

Can the Broncos replay history in an eerie way and send out another much loved player into retirement with a Premiership?

Only time will tell.

Written by Scott Rub (MAD BRONCOS SUPPORTER)

Thursday, 23 April 2015 10:00

Round Five Tips – Stan is back for Easter

Game 1: Bulldogs vs Tigers

Odds: 1.70 v 2.15

Why Bulldogs: Well they are settling down now, Mbye is now back on the bench with Jmoz coming back, and big boppers, Sam Kasiano and Timmy Browne are back. The halves stepped up last week after copping a bash in the media and they beat the helpless Sea Eagles.

Why Tigers: Well they played a decent 40 minutes last week and didn’t look too far off, a mentally weak team that seem to lose the concentration needed to be ruthless. The line bending prop Galloway is out injured so starting comes Ava Seeyoumynewfunguy

Prediction: Tigers will bounce back under 12. 

Game 2: Warriors vs Titans

Odds: 1.34 v 3.25

Why Warriors: I like the make up of this team this week with Fusitu’a coming back from injury and into the centres, expect him to score, another leaping target and powerful ball carrier. Sam Rapira, will add some experience to the squad to ensure no repeat from last week

Why Titans: If Nate doesn’t play I don’t expect much from a team that played well against the Panthers who’ve hit a slump, and the odds reflect this. They have some quality individuals, though they need to get their combinations working.

Prediction: Warriors under 12

Game 3: Knights vs Cowboys

Odds: 2.35 v 1.60

Why Knights: Well, 3 loss slump at the moment, maybe the home game will be the trump card coming up against the in-form Cowboys. I guess that’s what the bookies see. Last week I saw a better game from Mullen who needs to lead this side. I see them performing well.

Why Cowboys: Have form.

Prediction: Cowboys have their interchange going like clockwork, under 12 

Game 4: Rooster v Dragons

Odds: 1.45 v 2.75

Why Roosters: An up and down start to the season this game will be an arm wrestle, if Roosters want to perform well, they will need to muscle up. Their halves have been outstanding, let’s see if they can keep it going, match ups all over the park.

Why Dragons: Their defence is not getting caught out, only way you can score is off kicks, so the Roosters better put ball to boot. Mike Cooper, how good is he? The next Merrin.

Prediction: Dragons by under 12, play of the week in my opinion.

Game 5: Storm v Sea Eagles

Odds: 1.22 v 4.30

Why Storm: Rutheless, know how to win, I put money on them H2H live last week and they did the business.

Why Sea Eagles: Well they have to win at some stage, don’t they?

Prediction: Not this week though, Storm by over 13. 

Game 6: Broncos v Eels

Odds: 1.36 v 3.15

Why Broncos: Looked good against the Dragons, but the odds are too low to bet on them. Look out, Blair is back at prop giving up penalties. Weak in the backs, the forwards will have to front.

Why Eels: Underrated. John Folau, man he looks good, team is solid and ever improving.

Prediction: Eels under 12, my roughie. 

Game 7: Panthers v Sharks

Odds: 2.20 v 1.65

Why Panthers: Segey is out, which means they will lose.

Why Sharks: Gallen’s back (maybe) and they won without him last week, so that can only be good news. Barba was used as a sub and went onto wing last week, his injection helps the tiring forwards later in the game.

Prediction: Sharks win, maybe even over 13

Game 8: Rabbits v Raiders

Odds: 1.30 v 3.55

Why Rabbits: A little bit of a mess at the moment, with halves troubles. In my opinion, Inglis needs to move to halves and AJ to Fullback, but what do I know.

Why Raiders: The Fence back, and guys, how good did Kurt Baptise look last week? Needs to keep control of the game.

Prediction: Rabbits, but under 12. 

Thursday, 09 April 2015 10:00

What to do about Adam?

The Rabbitohs’ playmaker went down in dramatic circumstances seven days ok. Since this time reports have varied wildly from he’s out five months to he could be back at the end of this month. We might know more today with Reynolds due to visit a specialist this morning.

In Fluke or for real fashion we decided to pull some of the writers into the board room to offer their thoughts: trade or hold AReyn and if trade who to?

Here is what they came up with.

Renegade Analytics Department

I'm guessing that we don't get a very reliable answer on how long he will be out for by lockout this week and even the best case scenario of 3 or 4 weeks is going to feel like a long time to hold a player worth that much for. Considering I ran out of trades with three weeks to go last year I use that as my cut-off for whether I want to hold or dump a gun player and I'm trading. In my view the alternatives are DCE, Hunt or SJ. DCE will miss one extra game during Origin but even when Manly are rubbish (expect that to happen a lot this season) he still scores pretty well. Hunt has bottomed out in price and probably won't be involved in Origin. My main concern on Hunt is whether he can get his attacking game back on track - he's only had one try, try assist, line break and line break assist (all in round 3) after making a habit of them in 2014. That does mean he is scoring pretty well in base stats although his kick metres have been as high as 700mpg and as low as 311mpg. SJ is the wildcard. He is near to bottoming out and watching him in the weekend it was only some poor execution that prevented him from scoring 60 rather than 40. The Warriors also have an appealing schedule with the Tigers, Titans and Sharks all on the schedule in the next month. Getting SJ now for him to get back into 2014 form could save your fantasy season. I have three red dots in my halves so I am trading in someone and right now that someone is Ben Hunt. Now tell me what the hell should I do with the other five red dots in my side?

Lachie

This one’s tricky. If Reynolds is out for anything between 3-4 weeks I'm thinking he's a definite hold. He's unlikely to play Origin, and he's perfect for bye rounds, if you're overall. Anything over a month he might be a sell.

TV

If he's out for less than a month he's a hold, but if he won't be back until after round 11 then definitely sell. It all depends on your back up as well with many having Cornish/Moses/Nikorima on the bench who aren't good enough to fill in for him

JWarrior

Keeping Aren could cause major headaches with being named early and not playing, then not being named and turning up. Do you really need that drama? I suggest trading in Hunt (Overall) or DCE (H2H) if he returns you squeeze him back in upgrading through Cornish if he hasn’t got his job back. Hunt has a good start to the tough first bye week and is starting to run the ball again and looking likely to average just below Aren anyways.

DK

Depending on how long Reynolds faces on the side lines is the answer to if you trade him out or not. If you do plan on trading him out, both Ben Hunt and Jarrod Mullen are the two main options. Though Mullen has been rather inconsistent of late he is the Knights main playmaker and when they fire he will generally also score well. 2014 Cash Cow of the year Ben Hunt attacks the line and scores a lot of tries compared to other halves and has averaged well since the Broncos have recovered from their shaky start to the season. Both viable options.

Hotshot

Reynolds is a HOLD for now. But if he looks like missing more than four weeks he is a trade. Don't forget that the international break in four weeks gives him an extra week to recover so he could potentially only miss three games. If you must absolutely trade him out I'd be aiming for Thurston, DCE, Hunt, Mullen or (if you're really really brave) SJ. If you have the ability to bring Lolohea or Moses (ewwwww) back into your halves to purchase a WFB or CTR, Bird is obviously the number 1 option here and would give you plenty of extra cash to upgrade elsewhere. Other good options at the back include James Tedesco who is on a good run of form and fits in really well for the bye rounds. I should probably disclose that I have DCE and Sezer to start for me this week and Graham and Guerra to trade out so holding Reynolds for one week won't hurt me as much as it will others.

The general consensus is that if AReyn is out for about 3 to 4 weeks you might consider holding him but any longer he is a trade. It seems very possible that we won’t have any fixed timeframe by lockout and with Ben Hunt involved tonight getting the news over the weekend could be too late for getting a popular option.

JWarrior highlighted the frustration that comes with waiting for a player to come back from injury – if you decide to hold you’ll find yourself monitoring and over analysing every little bit of information and that can be a maddening distraction. However, AReyn has a history of overcoming what seems to be significant injuries (his 2014 owners can attest to that).

Here's a summary of options:

  1. Hold AReyn and revisit next week when more news might be available – this is a conservative route and will only really cost you one week of gun HLF scoring. You’ll have the same dilemma next week but hopefully with better information. AND remember if you do decide to stay the course and hold him until he is back you might have to be patient, the worst possible thing is to hold him for three weeks and get frustrated he wasn’t named and then trade him!
  2. Trade AReyn now to the likes of Hunt, JT, DCE, Mullen or *gulp* SJ. All of the gun HLFs have shown flaws this season so there is no “safe” choice. Roll the dice.
  3. Hold AReyn while trading one of your other red dot or under-performing HLF (Morts, Cornish etc). This helps buy another week while you wait for news on Reynolds but it could also cost you an extra trade next week if Reynolds is out long term and Morts or Cornish return to the fray.

Good luck with your decision and let’s be honest this is a situation with a lot of variables so luck will have a heavy hand.

Monday, 06 April 2015 10:00

Fluke or For Real: Jack Bird

On the third day he rose and he scored a bucket load of fantasy points and carried the Sharks over the line against the Roosters. This week we look at two-game rookie, Jack Bird. He is averaging in the 50s after two games and has a breathtakingly low BE. But, can he keep it up? For the sake of argument, we define "for real" for Bird as averaging over 40.

PW – After the performances of every single player in the backline this season, Flanagan would have rocks in his head to drop Bird. I'd say he has a spot on the roster at least until Origin, off just one performance. Forget about base stats, he has the ability to make the first man miss, time after time, and will do so in the centres or at 6. The kid is for real ladies and gents. If you haven't already, jump on board.

The Fantasy Menace – Yes the bird bird bird, yes, the bird is the word! Jack Bird is for real! If he was anymore real you could use him to go fishing. He looks sharp on his feet and defends like a second rower. The Sharks have been searching for someone to spark their attack since Adam Dykes retired, and I think they've found their man. Already forging a dangerous combination with Luke Lewis on the right edge, expect these two to cause plenty of headaches for defenses. He will chip in with some kick metres, get involved in tackling, rack up a few tackle breaks, with a few tries and assists in between. Sounds for real to me and with a MotM performance against competition heavyweights, you would think he would hold his place for now. I'd love to say fluke because I've already got him and even played him, but I don't think I'll be able to keep this little birdy as a secret. A bird in the hand is worth two in my team so trade him in early before you miss the worm!

Dan Kelly – Bird is for real that is for sure. Regardless of if he stays in the halves or goes to centre, he will still be a great option. Whether he can average 40 points week in week out could be interesting. But Bird (like Aitken) can be a great trade in option simply cause he will make cash leading up to Origin. It could also be interesting to see where Barba will play when he returns after Bird’s performance.

POD King – He's for real. A lot of talk was about this kid preseason and he has handled the pressure from the get go. He’s a natural footballer, who plays with instinct. He reminds me of a young Brad Fittler in his days at the Penrith Panthers, and there are big things ahead for this future star of the great game we follow. If you haven't got him already like the POD King has, then make way and get him in. He will make you plenty of cash and solid points in a centre position where it's hard to find a partner with Soliola.

P.S. Young Bird and the other young guns are injecting enthusiasm in a team that just had their first win, like forever

The Garbage Man – He is for real. With the Sharks having little in terms of a decent 5/8, I’d say Bird is likely to take that spot permanently. Let’s face it, Barba has nothing to offer. I’ve had Bird from the start, so I am a very happy coach.

The Burglar – Bird is unquestionably FOR REAL! This guy is a gun and will be for years to come. He slotted into a vacant 6 jumper this week and by his performance, he should almost certainly keep it. Unlike some halves, he won't rack up huge kick metres per game, but his defensive ability is what makes him appealing. Add in his freedom to run to and through the line, he will be a star. This guy will average 45+ and be the best cashie behind Soliola.

Matthew Duggan – I am a little on the fence, but am leaning towards Bird being for real. I doubt he will be a consistent scorer, but he has the talent that will lead to him getting enough attacking stats to finish the year above a 40 average, provided he stays in the halves. With Flanno suspiciously noting he can play anywhere in the backline and Barba's return imminent, I would be wary of him shifting to the centres. Even in the centres I think he will still get a decent enough average to make some good cash, but he would be far less of a must have, so wait until team lists

The Defensive Centre – Fluke! Don’t get me wrong; I’ll be bringing him in, as he will make some very important cash coming into the trade-heavy Origin period, but I don’t see him averaging 40. Playing in the halves (as a running half), or at CTR, he won’t have the solid base stats to be a regular big scorer. He was huge against the Roosters, but I wonder how he’ll perform against a team that actually takes the park, because the Roosters were awful. Furthermore, while one huge game may get him a few more weeks, one bad game could also get him punted back to Reggies to get his confidence up.

 

So, there you have it; a fairly resounding “for real”, with a few cautions at the end. With so many injuries at the moment, a solid cash cow is waiting to be snapped up. The Bird is the word!

Thursday, 02 April 2015 11:00

Round Five Tips – Stan is back for Easter

Game 1: Bulldogs v Rabbits
Venue: ANZ Stadium
Odds: $2.45 v $1.55

Why Bulldogs: Brett Morris, Josh Reynolds and Tim Lafai are all back and are all hugely instrumental to the Doggies. JRen the grub will be up to his old tricks and will try get into the heads of ARen and Keary.

Why Rabbits: No change to the Rabbits which is a great sign. GI has been quiet, but I feel Friday is his night to go boom!

Prediction: I think Rabbits by less than 12.

Game 2: Titans v Broncos
Venue: Cbus Super Stadium
Odds: $2.50 v $1.53

Why Titans: Last week they got off the doughnut. They had their first week, and no doubt that has brought a lot of confidence. Mosely and Matt White are back and will look to help the Tits to another win. Elgey looked okay in his debut, some poor, poor decision making all around but at least he executed okay.

Why Broncos: Are also riding high after some really great performances of late, a few calls went their way against the Warriors but you create your own luck. Put some $ on for a try to Copley, who has taken the spot of Hodges and will offer a threat to the Titans. Adam Blair is out so Broncos will give away less penalties. Jo Ofahengaue is also out

Prediction: Broncos to run rampant by over 13

Game 3: Sea Eagles v Raiders
Venue: Brookvale Oval
Odds: $1.53 v $2.50

Why Sea Eagles: The odds are short even though the team is riddled with injuries. Horo, Sao and Matai are in for Mateo, Lyon and Starling. Lyon and Starling are bad losses, but Mateo was shit last game so they’d better off with a poor man’s Mateo in Horo at the moment anyway. Home advantage is the only reason they are favourites. $ on BStewart to score Saturday.

Why Raiders: Well they must know something we don’t about Cornish, as he’s been more than capable but dropped for Sam Williams in the only change for this week. They got smashed by a rolling Roosters outfit, and need to improve even to topple a crippled Manly side.

Prediction: Manly by under 12 only because of home advantage. 

Game 4: Knights v Dragons
Venue: Hunter Stadium
Odds: $1.45 v $2.75

Why Knights: Undefeated at Hunter Stadium with James McManus and Tariq Sims back in. They got this easy.

Why Dragons: Dugan fired last week but his team overall is struggling.

Prediction: Knights by over 13

Game 5: Roosters v Sharks
Venue: Allianz Stadium
Odds: $1.17 v $5.00

Why Roosters: They suffered a hit with Fergo out, just after he hit form, but they will be too good.

Why Sharks: Valentine and Jack are their only hopes. The fullback and first five will need to spark their side with their youth and talent.

Prediction: Roosters by under 12

Game 6: Eels v West Tigers
Venue: ANZ Stadium
Odds: $1.77 v $2.05

Why Eels: Folau is closer to the ball in the centers with Faraimo in on the wing. The Eels won last week against the Rabbits, playing really inconsistent rugby at the moment. Hard to pick.

Why West Tigers: Woods, Halatau and Richards are all back in. Lovett gets the nod over Sue and look for this to create some heat.

Prediction: Eels won last week so they will lose this one, Tigers by under 12.

Game 7: Storm v Warriors
Venue: AAMI Park
Odds: $1.40 v $2.95

Why Storm: Clinical as always, looking to hit back after a tough loss, Bellyache won’t be happy.

Why Warriors: History is on our side with the Warriors being the Storms bogey side. The players coming in are better than the ones coming out which is always an added bonus.

Prediction: Warriors for the upset

Game 8: Panthers v Cowboys
Venue: Pepper Stadium
Odds: $1.50 v $2.60

Why Panthers: Sege, Plum and Johns are back with Kite and Brown out. Sege is huge for the Panthers and that was made apparent last week. I’m looking for the Panthers to bounce back.

Why Cowboys: Well, they won! So ya know confidence is key. Their team on paper is great, Tanginoa the next Lolo is back, and they just gotta keep scrapping for their wins.

Prediction: Panthers too strong by over 13

Thursday, 19 March 2015 11:00

Farah Trade or Hold

We are doing the unbelievable this week; considering whether to dump last year's fantasy stud and heir to Cameron Smith's fantasy immortal title, Robbie Farah. To quantify the decision we are looking for Farah to average more than 60 if we say hold, otherwise he is a trade. Your decision is to decide which writers know their stuff and which writers are sniffing some snuff. Or you can cherry pick the appropriate points and make your own decision.

Strahan

Trade. With 65-70 mins a game no fantasy coach can take the risk with Farah. He is still a work horse, but last week showed me enough to be worried about his future. 10-15 minutes off is about 10 or more points so he is no longer an elite option.

RAD

Farah is a trade. He is way too much money to be playing 70 minutes a week. Overall teams are probably going to trade him during Origin anyway it just makes more sense to me to suck it up and trade him now.

The Burglar

TRADE! No longer is Farah playing the full 80 anymore so he isn't just a set and forget choice. Not only this his work rate is seemingly lower then it has been in previous years. That combined with less minutes and as an origin player, this makes Farah a fantasy no go.

Tom

Hold but if it looks like he's not getting 80 then definitely look at trading him. He also misses 5 games over origin so you would probably have to trade him anyway before that time.

Wattsy  

Hold. Although he hasn't played the full 80 in the last two matches, he still remains the Tigers' most potent attacking force and disregarding his abnormally quiet game against the Dragons (and reduced minutes), he is still a solid 60 point player who will feature as the focal point of the Tigers' attack and particularly in the big games, get through a high defensive workload.

DK

Hold. There is a reason this bloke is the price he was. He can score 35-40 points just in tackles and if he plays 80 mins. He kicks, he runs at the line and is an integral part of the Tigers set up which makes him the set and forget player he is.

Hotshot

Trade. No longer an 80 minute player, Farah is a must sell this week. He's going to lose so much cash. Taylor also said he will continue to rest him. Why keep him when you can get Segeyaro for cheaper who will score roughly the same? I'm thankfully not in this position but if I was I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger.

JWarrior

Trade. Averaging only 40 tackles a game, in part due to his reduced role his chances of averaging near 60 are remote. With the halves looking more assured it has reduced the kicking metres of Farah thus making him closer to 50 than 60 and with a BE of 85 this week now is the time to give him up.

So the traders take this round 5-3 and certainly it is something to think about if you are from the "you don't trade guns" school of thought.

 

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