Episode 2: Shooting Stars

By the Fantasy Football Frotteur

The Second Row has it’s own unique difficulties compared to other positions, though perhaps it can be seen as a happy conundrum, which is that there are so many freaking guns getting around that it is often hard to pick which one you want, and many a fantasy coach knows the all-too-familiar temption to deck their 2RF out with more guns than a hillbilly at an NRA meeting. In fact, after undisputed Fantasy God Cameron Smith himself, the next 5 highest scoring fantasy players of 2017 come from the ranks of the second row position. So whether you go loco for Lolo, get urges for Surgess, or have a bellend for deBelin (honestly, i could do this all day), it is still important to remember that there are many juicy value players getting around which should be ignored at your own peril. Choose your guns wisely, but do not shy to include some under-priced gems hidden in the midrange section, as this will allow you to beef up your team in other areas. Here are some value players in the second row that are bound to be popular this season:

James Fisher-Harris 296k
In the back end of 2016 JFH played 11 games starting in the second row for an average of 72 minutes, scoring a healthy 39.9 average. Injury hampered his 2017 and JFH played only 13 games dotted throughout the regular season, firstly due to a busted eye socket, then a shoulder complaint and finally a continually re-aggravated hamstring injury. In his absence there rose a promising new rookie to fill his place, who now looms as his biggest obstacle to becoming a great cash cow this year, which is Corey Harawira-Naera. Even after JFH finally returned for 10 games at the end of 2017, he was unable to wrest that second row position back from CHN, playing lock 3 times and interchange 7 times. It is possible that Anthony Griffin merely wanted continuity since CHN had been playing well on the edge nearly the whole season while JFH was busy shattering like glass. Or perhaps he really does rate his new up and comer more than the old. Priced at 20.2 there could be a big return on investment if (and only if) he can lock up the vacant edge spot. Hook’s favoured acronym of choice between CHN and JFH is of vital importance because cheaper prospects like Viliame Kikau look to be better value if both are playing off the bench. Convoluting the decision is the fact that CHN is supposedly set to miss the first rounds of 2018 through injury, so even a solid TLT listing for JFH can be a trap.

Bryce Cartwright 325k
Cartwright was once a Panther riding a carriage to success, but in 2017 he somehow missed that carriage after aborting his stellar 2016 form and eventually terminating his Panthers contract (waka waka waka).  Linking up with the Titans in 2018 he looks to be a great pick if Garth Brennan finds a spot for him in his starting side, having recently been quoted as seeing him as a ball-playing lock. This decision may well infringe upon the economy of fellow value-2RF Jai Arrow, who had been all but sewn into for the 13 jersey until Cartwright’s arrival, though Brennan claims he can fit both in by moving Jai to the front row (through the magic of terrible coaching decisions!). Fantasy wise (and in real world Rugby League also), it seems a no-brainer that Bryce would seem more prosperous playing on the edge for the Titans: in 2016 he scored 52.7 fantasy points in nine 80-minute games, helped by a healthy 2.3 offloads per game, his definitive trademark weapon (he in fact made 69 offloads!). But off field scandal early in 2017 followed by a meniscal tear requiring surgery and a 3-month lay-off kept Cartwright to just 12 games in the regular season. Even when he finally returned in round 21, he only played off the bench and frequently poorly, finishing with an average of 22 points, which is where he is priced. Those interested in attending the Carty Party swill probably see price rises even from the interchange bench (since he couldn’t feasibly do any bloody worse!), but at such a low price a starting position would make him close to a must-have for this season. His DPP is also a handy one, as the HLF position is looking a hard pick this year, and a forwards’ tackles a highly bankable commodity.

Raymond Faitala-Mariner 389k
In 2016 when the Warriors traded Faitala-Mariner to the Bulldogs in exchange for Shaun Lane it seemed to many that the NZ franchise were getting the better rookie from the deal. But Lane never seemed to kick on with his career, struggling for game time at the Warriors and then joining the Manly reject project, whilst Faitala-Mariner had been finding a more concrete role even within a star-studded Canterbury forward pack.  Current rumours coming from the kennel are that RFM is in line for a starting position on the edge this season, pushing Adam Elliot into lock and shifting Frankenstein-doppelganger David Klemmer back into the prop ranks where he belongs. If it indeed comes to pass that RFM finds himself starting on the edge in 2018 he will be a terrific inclusion for any fantasy side. In 2017 he averaged 37.2 minutes mostly off the bench for 26.5 points. His two starting stints he played for 70 minutes and 52 minutes on the edge for scores of 61 and 40 respectively. Though also handy with an offload, he excels at busting tackles, making 26 TBs in his 16 games. Admittedly, it is hard to know if these whispers are merely the conjecture of the Bulldogs kennel itself, a fan-base notorious for their vocal opinions on team management (as well as thickened brows and hairy knuckles). But new coach Dean Pay is under a lot of pressure to shake things up and score some points, so even with the additions of Woods and Foran, running out another iteration of Des Hasler’s faithful failures for round 1 will be frowned upon by the new Bulldogs’ board. RFM and Elliot in the 12 and 13 jersey would certainly add some needed rejuvenation to the pack, and consequently make both players fantasy gold.
*addendum: To give credence to the rumours, RFM has been named on the edge in the upcoming trial versus the Raiders this weekend. Elliot features on the bench for this game.

Jai Arrow 409k
Jai Arrow played just 10 games for the Broncos in 2017, almost exclusively off the interchange bench through injury cover. Once touted as the replacement lock for Corey Parker (though he is yet to produce the offload potential of CP13), it was seen as a massive coup when the Titans signed the young back rower for 2018 and beyond. Moving back home, the Burleigh Bears junior has been nailed on as the Titans loose forward for some time, but a spanner has recently been thrown into the works with Bryce Cartwright’s arrival on the Gold Coast. Arrow has the ability to play big minutes and make a bazillion tackles (estimated figures) in the middle as lock, but a shift into the prop rotation to make way for Cartwright could spell disaster for his fantasy prospects. He is only priced at 28 after he averaged just 29 minutes of playing time in his 10 stints, so he is set to make money in either role- but the change could be the difference between a mid-ranger earning slight coin and a cut price keeper. Personally, I think most of this rumour is naught but crafty Brennan smokescreen and Arrow will line up as the lock for round 1, but who know what adjustments will be made if Gold Coast are stacking up some losses at the start of the season. Which they will. Because they are Gold Coast.  The downside of Arrow is that if he does sure up the 13 jersey, he will be in every team worth their salt including the WAGs and experimentals anyway, so the advantage of having him becomes somewhat nullified.

Isaac Liu 515k / Sio Siau Taukeiaho 535k
I have put both these players together because nobody has ever seen them in the same room at the same time. Okay, that is a complete lie but they do have a tendency to play “tag in/tag out” football where Robinson starts one at lock and one on the bench and continually swaps them around all season long as if he thinks they are the Hardy Boyz. This approach was somewhat hampered in 2017 through some untimely injuries to both players, and Liu and SST had only played 5 games together by round 20 last year. So, which of the two should you pick up? The stats show how SST and Liu’s playing styles differ: whilst both make a similar amount of tackles, SST has higher run metres and offloads, whilst Liu makes more tacklebreaks and the occasional linebreak. Both recorded a similar amount of missed tackles, penalties and errors. For the last 7 games of 2017, Liu seemed to have finally wrested the 13 jersey to himself even whilst Tauks was healthy, relegating the big Tongan to the bench. Liu averaged 48 minutes in his stint at lock and made 44.1 points per game (though this included 2 tries), well above the 35.2 he is priced at.  To compare, SST played 6 games at lock mid season for 50 minutes and averaged 40.3, though he remains priced a little higher at 36.5. SST also had goal kicking duties in this period, which are now set to be handed to Latrell Mitchell this season. The conclusion is that either of these two looks set to make a little coin if named at lock come round 1 (and you can be sure at least one of them will), but surprisingly it is Liu who looks to be the better value pick, despite his ownership at the time of writing being 1.3% versus 4.1% for SST. Current Roosters rumours have Liu in front for the spot come season start, but keeping a wary eye on the team lists for trials should illuminate this further. And of course, that is also assuming Nick Politis doesn’t buy Taumalolo, Gallen and Mannering next week.

Cameron Murray 533k
The only reprieve for Rabbitohs fans since the news of Crichton’s defection to the Roosters next year was the emergence of Cameron Murray. Angus is a former Rugby snob who prefers drinking pinot noirs in Rose Bay rather than sinking some cold beers in Redfern anyway, but in Murray they had a real home grown hero who bled red and green (er, I mean Cardinal and Myrtle- apologies bunnies’ diehards!) At the back end of 2017 the Rabbitohs season was already over and Michael Maguire had no reason not to experiment with a few up and comers in his side. After just a couple stints off the bench early on, Murray played the last 7 games of the season, but the hype really began in earnest when Madge moved him to the lock position for the last 3 games of the season and found he had significant fantasy output (I am assuming all Madges decisions in 2017 were based on his own fantasy side since few of them made any sense from a Rugby League point of view). Murray averaged 45.8 minutes of playing time in his 9 games, which puts him at his price point of 37.6. But for the 3 games he played at lock he averaged 44 tackles and 94 run metres- very tasty numbers! His price is toward the higher end for a mid-ranger, and indeed steep for a wholly untested one, but if he can grab the 13 jersey in 2018 as many sources indicate, he will still be underpriced and 533k will not seem so much if he emerges as a rookie gun. His biggest slight might be that some early season losses for the bunnies (who traditionally employ a unique strategy of waiting until their season is over to post some wins) may cause Siebold to opt for the tried and tested Sam Burgess to return to the lock position he has always excelled in. 

Published in NRL Fantasy

Episode 2: The Nosebleed section

By the Fantasy Football Frotteur


The Front Row has always been a tricky position for fantasy coaches, and with far less genuine guns than its 2RF counterpart it can be hard to be confident of your early season choices. Along with the dreaded centre position it is often where most coaches choose to run a little light and try to snag some cheapies early on. The inherent problem with the FRF is that even the starters will be playing far less minutes than anybody else on the field, so with the exception of “Fee-Fi-Fo-Fum” Fifita eating other grown men right there on the football field, they need to really increase their attacking output to be worthwhile candidates. Every season at least one of these gargantuan behemoths will have a stellar year where they score 10 tries and elevate themselves into the illustrious gun category (Ryan James 2016; Paul Vaughan 2017), but this output is often hard to sustain over time and they are liable to burn eager coaches the next season. DPP players who find a few more minutes by playing in the second row such as Josh McGuire and Josh Papilii can be a safe choice, or just putting faith in that aforementioned human-medical-experiment gone-wrong Andrew Fifita. For those looking for some bargains in the FRF, here are some value players:

Christian Welch - 320k
Welch has been touted as an up and comer in the Storm pack for a couple of seasons, but was cruelled last season by an ACL injury in round 9. A hungry young lad who eats tackles for breakfast, Welch has always been limited by his minutes in a stacked Melbourne pack. With the departing of McLean to the Cowboys this season, Welch could find himself bumped up the rotation though competing with new recruit Sam Kasiano for the vacant playing time. Also in his favour is the rumour of fellow prop Nelson Asofa-Solomona spending some time on the edge in order to prevent Hoffman busting his Zimmer frame in the surmountable task of replacing Tohu Harris. In 2016 Welch averaged 20 fantasy points in 22.6 playing minutes (through 15 games). His 2017 started promising, being elevated to the starting position twice - albeit after injuries to Jesse Bromwich and Jordan McLean respectively. Excluding the round 9 injury, he had averaged 26 points, just a tick above the 23 he is priced at but Welch will still need to find a consistent 30+ minutes rather than his usual stints of 20 to find value, but this possibility is not farfetched. Though a limited sample size, for the 3 games he played above 30 minutes last season he averaged 37.3.

Kane Evans - 323k
Perhaps a more promising FRF prospect than Christian Welch simply because he will be higher up the Eels’ pecking order, Kevans is a man-mountain import fresh from the Chooks reject list and touted for a possible starting spot. Though I personally think Brad Arthur would be bonkers not to give young gun Daniel Alvaro a shot in the hot seat, many prefer his impact off the bench and who am I to argue with a coach that wins nearly 50% of the time. After a promising start to his debut year as starting prop in 2016, the Roosters quickly discovered that Evans does not make nearly as many tackle breaks as a man of his stature looks like he should, and he spent the next two seasons relegated to time-poor stints off the interchange bench. In 2017 he averaged just 25 minutes and scored 22 points per game. The good news is that even this front row flop can still be terrific value in the Eels pack this year. Arthur just loves spreading the minutes evenly amongst his FRF, mostly because they have all been equally mediocre, but it would be hard to see Kevans playing any less than 30-40 mins. For his first 8 games before Trent Robinson cut his playing time, he averaged 38 minutes for a score of 37 points, well above his price and set to make money. The take home message here is that even numpties famous for stringing 30s are good value when you are priced at 22!

Leilani Latu - 328k
Latu is a man I have seen in many fantasy teams since his defection to the Titans for this season, though admittedly less so since Cartwright also aborted his Panthers’ contract and joined the Gold Coast.  I have included him in this list mainly for posterity, but it is hard to see a lot of value in him this season. Some might argue that he can grab a starting spot with Wallace suspended for two games, but even so he would really need to have a blinder to set his price rises off. Latu played plenty of big minute games for the Panthers last season for disappointing scores which are mainly being hampered by his terrible missed tackle count. Like with Kane Evans, he is only priced at 22 and does not need much to increase in value, but the difference is he was already averaging 36 minutes to get that 22. He is also far too susceptible to a poor game even with big minutes: last year in the 7 games he played between 40 and 50 minutes, he averaged 28. New team, new coach and new role to be sure, but it will take a ballsy coach to include him this season. He seems a popular pick with poor value.

Matt Lodge - 365k
Probably should be sitting in a prison cell right now, but at these prices you can’t afford to take the moral high ground on this one! The towering prop is coined for a starting role at the Brisbane Broncos this season, in a position where Bennett has been pretty systematic (20 mins to start the first half and 20 mins midway through the second). Lodge is priced at 24 points and you would think with 40 minutes up his sleeve he would be good for at least 30+ and easily increase his value. Ese’ese averaged 37 in a similar role last season and though their playing styles differ, Lodge comes in with some form as he was tearing up the ISC for the Redcliffe Dolphins last season. It is hard to get some good stats on Lodge in the NRL since he played just 12 games over 2 seasons for the Tigers in 2014/2015, mostly from the bench. But after paying $1.6M in court fees and knocking back a $1.5M Knights for a chance to lick Bennett’s left nutsack, you would think he has some intent to prove himself this season and earn a new contract. He will be in everybody’s team anyway, so this greatly mitigates the risk of an unlikely flop.

Herman Ese’ese - 472k
Easy E was a bit of a POD cash cow for some last season, who really kicked on once he secured a starting role in the Broncos by round 6. Before then he had averaged 34 minutes off the bench for 29 points, but once he had replaced Korbin Sims in the starting 13, his minutes became more consistent (40 minute average over 7 games) and his scores reflected this, averaging 37 and really taking his price rises to a new level). But soon Bennett found some secret Mastercoach reason to put Sims back into the starting prop role and Easy E’s scores dipped again, finishing the season on a 32-point average and leaving him poised as a value player for 2018. A new role at the Knights should see an increase in minutes, but I feel at least 45+ are really warranted to kick above the 40-point barrier he struggled to break in a stronger defensive outfit. Working against this hope is the fact that he started off the bench in the recent trial game versus Melbourne, which seemed to reveal much of the round 1 line-up. Like so many other props, Ese’ese’s (grammar +1) value is probably hinged on whether he can grab a starting role this season, for even though a solid 40 minutes in the middle of the game might see him increase slightly, it will probably not be enough to justify his pick when other options are going Boom-crash-money-time.

Nelson Asofa-Solomona - 481k
NAS is on this list for the same reasons as Christian Welch, though at a very different spectrum of the price range. The departures of McLean and Harris should spell more game time for the big Kiwi, with some rumour he will even spend time on the edge for short stints. All this is welcome news for the PPM beast, having averaged just 34 minutes per game last season yet showing himself capable with much larger minutes at times with little decline in his output. In games 40+ minutes (7 games) in 2017 he averaged 51 points, albeit with two tries. Priced at 32.8, there is a lot of value and sweet, sweet moolah to be made here. NAS busts tackles like it is going out of fashion (2.6 per game last season) and is deft with an offload too, his style is much more geared to attacking play than a simple tacklebot so he will invariably produce some lower scoring games but this is one rollercoaster that looks set to have some big highs also. The news of him possibly playing wider is perhaps the most promising, because this is a man who will eat the dreams of opposing edge defenders and poop out tackle breaks.

Jesse Bromwich - 534k
The fallen gun, once a member of the increasingly rare FRF elite whose numbers have now dwindled enough to count on one hand, JBrom had a 2017 to forget (which he did indeed do for some parts). Despite averaging 50 minutes, he only found 36.5 points per game, well down on his 50+ totals of the past. Off field indiscretions and subsequent punishments are thought to have affected his game throughout the season, and whether this is true or not, the changes in his stats are evident: His 24 tackles per game were down from the 30-point average in 2016; his 127 running metres were down from the 145 the previous season. But the biggest change to his game was that his offloads dried up- dropping from a healthy 47 in 2016 to a paltry 16 across 2017 (though 4 fewer games played). But many fantasy coaches will be backing a return to form for JBrom this season. The changes to the Storm forwards previously mentioned will also benefit him greatly, and as the alpha dog in the pack he could easily push his game time back closer to the 60 minutes he previously enjoyed. Whether those attacking stats return to his game or not will be the real gamble, but for his current pricing a return to gun status could provide excellent value for astute coaches- as long as he sticks to running his lines on the field.

Published in NRL Fantasy
Sunday, 11 February 2018 00:00

Sideways Trading

Jason Robson

Fantasy Coaches often hear the phrase "sideways trade" thrown about like the footy when a side needs a try after the bell to escape the jaws of defeat. But what's a "sideways trade" and why is it so important early in the fantasy season to avoid them like the Warriors avoid the finals?

In the context of the early rounds of NRL Fantasy, a "sideways trade" can best be described as trading a player (usually a gun) for another player of comparable fantasy-scoring ability without legitimate, long-term justification for doing so. Such justifications include but are not limited to:

  • Your current player is injured for several weeks
  • Your current player is suspended for several weeks
  • Your current player's role (ie minutes, goal kicking duties) have severely decreased
  • The player you obtain is severely undervalued due to an outlier score in their 5RA (ie scored 3 in after getting injured in the first five minutes)
  • Your player is a grubby Roosters player

If your trade fills one of the justifications above then it may not be a bad idea to make that trade. For example Greg Inglis got a season-ending knee injury in Round 1 (2017); it would be worth trading him to another WFB whom can score you points and/or gain you team value in the remaining 25 rounds.

The main motivation for sideways trades early on is to chase that first round score from a gun so you can get that gun "before his price is out of reach" as expectation is that gun will only get more expensive in the coming weeks and you will not be able to afford that player. This is often combined with a gun you chose to start the Fantasy season having a sub-score in round 1, usually a fair bit below their average of year/s previous meaning that you're concerned their price will drop considerably to the point they will become undervalued.

Both of these concerns are somewhat valid and in insolation may suggest that trading out a low-scoring round 1 gun for a high-scoring round 1 gun is a great use of a trade. However the validity of a trade cannot be viewed in insolation; it must be considered in context of your team-building strategy.

Your team building strategy is your strategy on how you aim to turn your round 1 side from a team value of $9.4m into a team worth north of $11.5m* containing at least 18 guns by using 34 trades to achieve this. 34 trades may seem a lot; but when you consider that your team will encounter injuries and suspensions in the season, it leaves little rooms in sideways moves. Obviously this point could be debated further but without really knowing what the net effect of reduced byes and squad sizes will be, this piece will focus purely on the cap management side of sideways trades.

Depending on the make-up of your team at Round 1; you would be lucky to have any more than 7-8 guns that are priced correctly (ie one could argue Bryce Cartwright being priced $325k is a gun at an outlier price). This means that unless any of your mid-rangers and/or cash cows form into guns (quite rare), you are going to need to insert at least an extra 9-10 guns into your squad to reach the optimal 18+ guns for the run home. By trading one gun for another in the early rounds, you are decreasing your remaining trades by at least one, without increasing the amount of guns in your team. To spell it out, if you sideways trade one gun to another in round 2 all you are effectively doing is making sure instead of having 34 trades to get your 18 guns, you're playing with 33 trades. Is this ideal? Probably not.

Regarding prices; whilst the high scoring player's price may increase and continue to increase for a few rounds it is worth considering the algorithm that is used to determine price fluctuations. Whilst the developers have not disclosed the exact formula, it is almost certain that the prices are derived from a 5-round average meaning the higher the five round average is, generally the higher the price for the player will be. In order to sustain the price, the score a player must usually score higher than the score leaving 5RA to exceed the break-even. Exceeding the break-even usually results in a price rise, failing to exceed it usually delivers the reverse..

So whilst it is not impossible for guns to increase in value, it is much more difficult for them to increase significantly in value in comparison to a cash cow. Why? Because a cashie will have a low 5RA to begin with; meaning any large score would increase their 5RA at a much quicker rate and thus allow their value to accelerate quicker as the large score will continue to have a large impact on the 5RA until it is phased out in 5 games' time. Whereas a gun whom gets a big score will see an increase in value, because the other 4 scores that will be replaced in the following weeks are high it will be difficult to exceed them.

As result, this creates a problem when you miss out on a big score from a gun you do not own. In the NRL Fantasy rules, it states that "The Players’ Prices will change based on a formula that takes into account their past performances. All games played by the Player since the start of the season are taken into account in the calculation of their Price changes, with a sliding scale of weightings with the most recent game receiving the highest weighting". That would mean the last score of a player probably has the biggest effect on the price of a player. So if a gun exceeds their BE/starting 5RA by a lot in round 1 (ie scores north of 75, BE was 50), most of the expected price increase over the 4 weeks with that score in the 5RA will occur after round 1 and very minimal rises afterwards.

Basically, in most instances you've missed the boat and by buying that gun AFTER the massive opening round score you are mostly likely buying him at or close to his peak price for the season. You can also flip this around to if a gun has a terrible score in the first week, most of his price decrease will occur in the first week meaning he'll be close to bottomed out after week 1. Buying players at inflated prices and selling at deflated prices early in the season is a great way of cannibalising your salary cap growth making it harder for you to get North of $11.5m. Like the stock market you need to buy low, sell high and not the other way around.

To explore this further, below are three examples of sideways trades that were made by coaches before round 2 in 2017 by trading out a low-scorer for a high-scorer in Round 1. Behind each summary will be the key numbers involved in making the trade before round 2 which will illustrate how little value each trade has in the long-term. Two examples (the 2RF and WFB) use Rest of the Season (ROTS) data whilst the third example (HLF) uses Rest of the 19 Rounds (ROT19) as player in question Shaun Johnson sustained a serious injury in round 19.

Example 1 – Trading out Sam Burgess (SOU) for Jack de Belin (SGI)

Surgess was unfortunate to be on the park as a lacklustre South Sydney side got the run around by Wests Tigers in an 18-34 defeat. He accumulated 5 missed tackles (averages roughly just under 3 per game) and no attacking stats to end up with a below-par 42. Naturally, coaches may be concerned that a run of sub-50 scores could see Surgess' value plummet below $500k.

On the flip side, Jack de Belin got into the swing of things with a massive 92 points against Penrith, including a huge try where he made defender after defender look like a jonx. As the third-highest priced player, another big score or two could see his price exceed $600k.

If you traded out Surgess ($512k) for JdB ($586k) you would need to part way with $74k and at least one trade to make it happen; and what would you receive in return for the rest of the season?

In the end, your $74k would have netted you an extra 226 points which one would suggest equates to a good trade. However, the validity of this trade looks better when looking purely at the numbers, as JdB played two more games than Surgess and in three games that Surgess played he managed under 60 minutes each due to injury in the match. Had Surgess had a bit more luck with injuries and/or JdB has less luck with injuries, the trade will have almost no value.

Looking at prices, JdB did continue to increase in price for a further two weeks, before peaking at $596k and depreciating back into the low-mid $500k range where he became very affordable to pickup mid-season for any coach that did not start off with him. On the whole, if you picked up Jdb in round 2 you significantly overpaid for him, and likely cannibalised your cap growth quite significantly.

Example 2 – Trading out Tom Trbojevic (MAN) to James Tedesco (WTI)

As everyone probably recalls quite well, "Teddy" started the season on fire as he carved up the Rabbitohs on his way to 91 points. Already a prime WFB option, the tigers fullback set his stall out early as a prime candidate to be one of the best scoring WFBs in 2017.

"Turbo" was also touted to be a handy WFB in 2017; his season started with a poor 27 against Parramatta as Manly struggled to impose themselves on the match. Inevitably, question marks were already surrounding the Manly fullback, and some would've been tempted to kick him to the curb.

As a result, Tedesco would be tempting before he became "out of reach" #FamousLastWords. If you traded Trbojevic ($379k) for Tedesco ($514k) in round 2 you would need to part way with $135k and at least one trade to make it happen; and what would you receive in return for the rest of the season?

In the end, your $135k would have actually cost you 6 points as Turbo outscored Teddy for the rest of the season as with the way the injuries stacked up Tommy played one extra game. So even if both players played the same amount of games you'd be looking at Teddy scoring probably no more than 50 points than Turbo. On the face of it, not exactly the best trade.

To compound this further, Tedesco's price in round 2 ($514K) was his third highest purchase price of the season (he peaked at $524k in round 3) meaning you basically bought him at maximum value, cannibalising your cap.  Whereas Trbojevic's round 2 price of $379k his lowest purchase price of the season, meaning you would have sold him at his lowest value.

Example 3 – Trading out Nathan Cleary (PEN) to Shaun Johnson (WAR)

Nathan Cleary was a revelation in 2016, slotting in seamlessly as a try-scoring goal-kicking gun half who was worth the investment. His 2017 campaign wasn't exactly set alight in 2017 when he managed 33 points as the panthers got torched by the Dragons – coaches whom had opted to punt with him would understandably be a bit nervous.

"SJ" on the other hand got the snowball rolling with a tidy 62 against the Knights, with his points almost split 50/50 between base stats and attacking stats. Although not a common trade, SJ's pedigree did make him a popular trade target from the get-go given he's been a top-scoring half for several years now.If you traded Cleary ($486k) for Johnson ($492k) in round 2 you would need to part way with $6k and at least one trade to make it happen; and what would you receive in return until round 19?

In the end, your $6k would gain you another 35 points up until round 19. You could argue that this difference could be larger if Cleary doesn't score 126 when he faces the Warriors in round 19. But even if Cleary only scores 50 in this game he would have 100 less points than SJ, but would this worth a trade? Probably not when you consider SJ got injured in round 19 and missed rounds 20 to 25 meaning Cleary did outscore him for the rest of the season. The basic premise is this trade would have rewarded you with minimal points and salary cap gain, thus making it a sideways trade.

Published in NRL Fantasy
Tuesday, 01 August 2017 00:00

Break Evens: Round 22

Brisbane Broncos

Player

Price

Break Even

Average

 George Fai

$148,000 

5

30

 David Mead

$170,000 

14

18.8

 Joe Boyce

$138,000 

16

0

 Francis Molo

$143,000 

16

0

 Gehamat Shibasaki

$138,000 

16

0

 Mosese Pangai

$138,000 

16

0

 Marion Seve

$138,000 

16

0

 Todd Murphy

$138,000 

16

0

 Salesi Funaki

$138,000 

16

0

 Tevita Pangai Junior

$270,000 

18

29.9

 Jonus Pearson

$187,000 

19

19

 Jamayne Isaako

$138,000 

20

13

 Jai Arrow

$235,000 

22

26.9

 James Roberts

$403,000 

24

44.9

 Jordan Kahu

$256,000 

25

28.2

 Tom Opacic

$237,000 

27

0

 Korbin Sims

$307,000 

29

34.8

 Sam Thaiday

$291,000 

32

33.2

 Kodi Nikorima

$263,000 

33

33.8

 Tautau Moga

$380,000 

35

37.2

 Corey Oates

$332,000 

36

34.4

 Adam Blair

$298,000 

37

32.9

 Matt Gillett

$486,000 

39

50.5

 Travis Waddell

$253,000 

40

14

 Jo Ofahengaue

$301,000 

41

33.2

 Jaydn Su'a

$280,000 

42

26.7

 Herman Ese'ese

$300,000 

42

32.5

 Darius Boyd

$303,000 

51

33.4

 Alex Glenn

$365,000 

51

34.1

 Benji Marshall

$198,000 

54

20.3

 Andrew McCullough

$468,000 

56

57.7

 Josh McGuire

$322,000 

59

44.6

 Ben Hunt

$414,000 

59

46.6

 Anthony Milford

$401,000 

65

43.5

Canterbury Bulldogs

Player

Price

Break Even

Average

 Josh Reynolds

$294,000 

13

34.4

 Marcelo Montoya

$287,000 

14

29.7

 Zac Woolford

$138,000 

16

0

 Renouf Toomaga

$138,000 

16

0

 Asipeli Fine

$140,000 

16

15

 Josh Cleeland

$138,000 

16

0

 Raymond Faitala-Mariner

$285,000 

17

27.6

 David Klemmer

$351,000 

17

38.8

 Danny Fualalo

$272,000 

18

24.5

 Brad Abbey

$168,000 

19

19.8

 Francis Tualau

$149,000 

20

17.6

 Tyrone Phillips

$204,000 

23

0

 Chase Stanley

$281,000 

23

33

 Andy Saunders

$138,000 

25

10

 Kerrod Holland

$291,000 

25

30.1

 Reimis Smith

$236,000 

27

0

 Richard Kennar

$232,000 

27

0

 Matt Frawley

$250,000 

30

29.1

 Greg Eastwood

$178,000 

33

21.7

 James Graham

$353,000 

34

45.3

 Aiden Tolman

$462,000 

34

50

 Sam Kasiano

$228,000 

34

23

 Josh Morris

$235,000 

35

32.3

 Josh Jackson

$377,000 

35

43.9

 Brett Morris

$230,000 

41

29.1

 Brenko Lee

$324,000 

41

35.6

 Adam Elliot

$335,000 

42

33.4

 Will Hopoate

$355,000 

44

40.7

 Craig Garvey

$186,000 

46

8.7

 Moses Mbye

$416,000 

60

39.1

 Michael Lichaa

$252,000 

65

33.8

North Queensland Cowboys

Player

Price

Break Even

Average

 Kyle Laybutt

$150,000 

8

23

 Blake Leary

$159,000 

13

20

 Gideon Gela-Mosby

$240,000 

13

35.5

 Sam Hoare

$159,000 

14

20.5

 Carlin Anderson

$138,000 

16

0

 Patrick Mago

$138,000 

16

0

 Enari Tuala

$138,000 

16

0

 Braden Uele

$138,000 

18

14

 Corey Jensen

$175,000 

19

20.1

 Ethan Lowe

$379,000 

21

39.8

 Javid Bowen

$249,000 

22

27.5

 Lachlan Coote

$215,000 

22

25.2

 Kalyn Ponga

$374,000 

23

49

 Kane Linnett

$287,000 

24

28.1

 Patrick Kaufusi

$240,000 

25

26.9

 Jake Granville

$316,000 

25

34.3

 Shaun Fensom

$290,000 

26

30.8

 Antonio Winterstein

$202,000 

27

22.7

 Josh Chudleigh

$236,000 

27

0

 Justin O'Neill

$274,000 

27

25.9

 Ray Thompson

$181,000 

31

16.7

 Ben Spina

$190,000 

32

21.8

 John Asiata

$213,000 

34

27

 Johnathan Thurston

$443,000 

36

48.6

 Coen Hess

$375,000 

40

44.9

 Ben Hampton

$138,000 

42

18.2

 Gavin Cooper

$329,000 

43

39.3

 Te Maire Martin

$305,000 

44

34.9

 Michael Morgan

$433,000 

46

41.8

 Matthew Scott

$348,000 

47

35.5

 Kyle Feldt

$349,000 

48

31.6

 Scott Bolton

$373,000 

52

42.7

 Jason Taumalolo

$539,000 

72

61.5

St George Illawarra Dragons

Player

Price

Break Even

Average

 Matthew Dufty

$237,000 

-16

60.5

 Nene Macdonald

$371,000 

9

35.7

 Kalifa Faifai Loa

$284,000 

11

48.5

 Hame Sele

$182,000 

13

19.3

 Tyrone McCarthy

$143,000 

16

0

 Kiti Glymin

$138,000 

16

0

 Shaun Nona

$138,000 

16

0

 Siliva Havili

$152,000 

17

0

 Luciano Leilua

$161,000 

18

0

 Mose Masoe

$166,000 

19

0

 Josh McCrone

$231,000 

22

31.3

 Jake Marketo

$214,000 

24

0

 Jacob Host

$227,000 

28

22.1

 Will Matthews

$253,000 

29

0

 Euan Aitken

$322,000 

30

40

 Paul Vaughan

$449,000 

32

53.8

 Taane Milne

$148,000 

33

15.4

 Drew Hutchison

$296,000 

34

0

 Blake Lawrie

$138,000 

37

9.5

 Jason Nightingale

$332,000 

37

35.5

 Gareth Widdop

$386,000 

38

45

 Timoteo Lafai

$328,000 

39

40.1

 Joel Thompson

$371,000 

39

44.2

 Leeson Ah Mau

$470,000 

43

41.9

 Tariq Sims

$367,000 

43

37.5

 Kurt Mann

$285,000 

44

28.9

 Josh Dugan

$410,000 

47

45.9

 Tyson Frizell

$436,000 

47

45.9

 Jack de Belin

$531,000 

48

59.1

 Cameron McInnes

$467,000 

52

54.7

 Jai Field

$138,000 

52

8.3

 Russell Packer

$277,000 

57

33.6

Parramatta Eels

Player

Price

Break Even

Average

 Kirisome Auva'a

$239,000 

-3

28

 Cameron King

$216,000 

6

33

 Bevan French

$336,000 

11

35.2

 Josh Hoffman

$204,000 

14

21

 Suaia Matagi

$225,000 

15

27.1

 James Hasson

$138,000 

16

0

 Cody Nelson

$143,000 

16

0

 John Folau

$143,000 

16

0

 Marata Niukore

$138,000 

16

0

 Mitchell Moses

$336,000 

17

34.7

 Kelepi Tanginoa

$170,000 

19

0

 Nathan Davis

$187,000 

20

23

 George Jennings

$175,000 

20

0

 Rory O'Brien

$180,000 

21

20

 Brad Takairangi

$214,000 

22

25.5

 Bureta Faraimo

$202,000 

23

0

 Jeff Robson

$266,000 

25

36

 Frank Pritchard

$240,000 

25

26.2

 Daniel Alvaro

$338,000 

25

34.6

 Siosaia Vave

$238,000 

27

26.3

 Michael Jennings

$301,000 

29

35.3

 David Gower

$244,000 

30

25.3

 Will Smith

$209,000 

31

25.2

 Isaac De Gois

$275,000 

31

0

 Tim Mannah

$234,000 

33

29.8

 Semi Radradra

$386,000 

34

36

 Kenny Edwards

$399,000 

36

39.8

 Nathan Brown

$498,000 

36

50

 Manu Ma'u

$368,000 

38

41.4

 Clinton Gutherson

$427,000 

42

44.4

 Beau Scott

$316,000 

42

33.2

 Tepai Moeroa

$385,000 

44

39.4

 Peni Terepo

$287,000 

47

26.7

 Corey Norman

$378,000 

48

46.6

 Kaysa Pritchard

$304,000 

59

36.5

Newcastle Knights

Player

Price

Break Even

Average

 Chanel Mata'utia

$177,000 

5

27.3

 Jacob Saifiti

$220,000 

11

24.4

 Josh King

$252,000 

11

27.7

 Jaelen Feeney

$188,000 

13

19.9

 Jacob Gagan

$143,000 

16

16

 Will Pearsall

$143,000 

16

0

 Tom Hughes

$138,000 

16

0

 Cory Denniss

$149,000 

17

0

 Dylan Phythian

$139,000 

21

10

 Ken Sio

$148,000 

22

19.4

 Rory Kostjasyn

$210,000 

24

0

 Brock Lamb

$314,000 

27

35.4

 David Bhana

$238,000 

27

0

 Pat Mata'utia

$258,000 

30

0

 Pauli Pauli

$276,000 

32

0

 Danny Levi

$316,000 

33

34.6

 Jack Cogger

$286,000 

33

0

 Josh Starling

$280,000 

33

29.8

 Joe Wardle

$190,000 

34

22.7

 Tyler Randell

$152,000 

34

8.6

 Brendan Elliot

$231,000 

34

28.1

 Shaun Kenny-Dowall

$308,000 

35

30.7

 Anthony Tupou

$206,000 

36

19

 Peter Mata'utia

$212,000 

36

26.5

 Jarrod Mullen

$331,000 

38

0

 Mickey Paea

$176,000 

38

9.7

 Sione Mata'utia

$327,000 

41

36.5

 Trent Hodkinson

$256,000 

43

27.9

 Luke Yates

$248,000 

43

30.3

 Jack Stockwell

$231,000 

44

27.8

 Nathan Ross

$326,000 

44

33.8

 Mitchell Barnett

$416,000 

45

44.2

 Sam Stone

$309,000 

46

31

 Daniel Saifiti

$322,000 

47

35.8

 Jamie Buhrer

$417,000 

49

47.9

 Dane Gagai

$407,000 

52

40.9

 Lachlan Fitzgibbon

$292,000 

56

35.7

 Sam Mataora

$339,000 

65

4

Penrith Panthers

Player

Price

Break Even

Average

 Tyrone May

$181,000 

-2

36.5

 Waqa Blake

$294,000 

9

31

 Dean Whare

$161,000 

14

19.8

 Kaide Ellis

$138,000 

16

0

 Jed Cartwright

$138,000 

16

0

 Darren Nicholls

$138,000 

16

0

 Samisoni Langi

$144,000 

17

0

 Moses Leota

$141,000 

20

15.7

 Reagan Campbell-Gillard

$299,000 

20

35.2

 Tyrone Peachey

$236,000 

22

33.7

 Tim Browne

$225,000 

25

25.9

 Peter Wallace

$338,000 

30

40.4

 James Fisher-Harris

$194,000 

31

19.1

 Leilani Latu

$193,000 

31

22.4

 Dallin Watene Zelezniak

$283,000 

32

32.7

 Sam McKendry

$283,000 

32

0

 Peta Hiku

$212,000 

33

19.9

 James Tamou

$351,000 

40

40.4

 Corey Harawira-Naera

$333,000 

46

42.3

 Bryce Cartwright

$262,000 

48

23.1

 Josh Mansour

$327,000 

49

37.6

 Isaah Yeo

$357,000 

50

43.8

 Viliame Kikau

$138,000 

52

13.9

 Sitaleki Akauola

$138,000 

53

12.6

 Matt Moylan

$334,000 

53

36

 Sione Katoa

$138,000 

55

10.8

 Nathan Cleary

$577,000 

56

54.2

 Dylan Edwards

$384,000 

58

47.4

 Trent Merrin

$415,000 

63

45.6

 Mitch Rein

$408,000 

64

43

South Sydney Rabbitohs

Player

Price

Break Even

Average

 Cameron Murray

$143,000 

6

18

 Sitiveni Moceidreke

$148,000 

9

27

 Jack Gosiewski

$143,000 

16

0

 Damien Cook

$205,000 

21

28.2

 Dane Nielsen

$204,000 

23

0

 Thomas Burgess

$303,000 

24

33.9

 Anthony Cherrington

$138,000 

24

15

 Braidon Burns

$182,000 

25

20

 Robert Jennings

$211,000 

25

24.6

 Siosifa Talakai

$251,000 

25

29.7

 Kyle Turner

$262,000 

26

30.6

 Luke Kelly

$244,000 

28

28

 Jason Clark

$251,000 

28

30.4

 George Burgess

$255,000 

28

26.3

 Tyrell Fuimaono

$294,000 

31

35.6

 Zane Musgrove

$265,000 

32

30.8

 Aaron Gray

$241,000 

32

25

 David Tyrrell

$212,000 

32

24.2

 John Sutton

$314,000 

33

39.6

 Hymel Hunt

$201,000 

35

21.5

 Bryson Goodwin

$326,000 

43

32.3

 Alex Johnston

$309,000 

46

33.4

 Adam Reynolds

$410,000 

51

47.2

 Robbie Farah

$346,000 

60

36.2

 Cody Walker

$372,000 

60

43.7

 Greg Inglis

$405,000 

63

25

 Sam Burgess

$454,000 

68

53.7

 Angus Crichton

$620,000 

70

61.4

Canberra Raiders

Player

Price

Break Even

Average

 Michael Oldfield

$168,000 

10

25.5

 Aidan Sezer

$307,000 

14

28.5

 Jarrod Croker

$350,000 

15

40.1

 Zac Santo

$188,000 

16

29

 Makahesi Makatoa

$138,000 

16

0

 Brent Naden

$138,000 

16

0

 Dave Taylor

$213,000 

16

23.7

 Lachlan Croker

$143,000 

16

0

 Kurt Baptiste

$148,000 

19

16.3

 Luke Bateman

$257,000 

21

29

 Clay Priest

$232,000 

21

25.5

 Joseph Tapine

$375,000 

22

38.1

 Dunamis Lui

$163,000 

24

16.3

 Jeff Lima

$162,000 

26

12.3

 Jordan Turner

$233,000 

27

0

 Nick Cotric

$381,000 

29

40.1

 Shannon Boyd

$281,000 

29

30.2

 Sia Soliola

$336,000 

30

37.4

 Jack Wighton

$293,000 

30

33.9

 Erin Clark

$138,000 

32

6

 Scott Sorensen

$138,000 

39

9

 Royce Hunt

$138,000 

40

1

 Josh Hodgson

$377,000 

40

42.6

 Blake Austin

$308,000 

42

36

 Joseph Leilua

$313,000 

43

34

 Elliott Whitehead

$396,000 

43

41.6

 Josh Papalii

$445,000 

58

53.6

 Junior Paulo

$374,000 

61

42.1

 Jordan Rapana

$431,000 

88

50.8

Sydney Roosters

Player

Price

Break Even

Average

 Victor Radley

$182,000 

-9

40

 Isaac Liu

$326,000 

3

34.2

 Connor Watson

$300,000 

8

27.9

 Chris Smith

$144,000 

13

19

 Liam Knight

$143,000 

16

0

 Brock Gray

$138,000 

16

0

 Sio Siua Taukeiaho

$382,000 

20

42.3

 Eloni Vunakece

$183,000 

21

0

 Jayden Nikorima

$181,000 

21

0

 Daniel Tupou

$295,000 

22

33.8

 Luke Keary

$302,000 

24

35.9

 Nat Butcher

$162,000 

25

13.5

 Zane Tetevano

$224,000 

26

23.8

 Kane Evans

$209,000 

28

22.6

 Dylan Napa

$249,000 

31

27.9

 Latrell Mitchell

$342,000 

31

38.2

 Mitchell Cornish

$178,000 

31

13.3

 Jared Waerea-Hargreaves

$336,000 

34

40.4

 Mitchell Aubusson

$332,000 

36

40.4

 Blake Ferguson

$300,000 

39

31.7

 Ryan Matterson

$412,000 

40

39.8

 Jake Friend

$477,000 

41

50.6

 Aidan Guerra

$376,000 

43

43.2

 Lindsay Collins

$138,000 

45

8

 Joseph Manu

$244,000 

46

28.4

 Michael Gordon

$336,000 

51

40.2

 Boyd Cordner

$467,000 

54

49

 Paul Carter

$261,000 

58

14.3

 Mitchell Pearce

$501,000 

74

56

Manly Sea Eagles

Player

Price

Break Even

Average

 Joey Lussick

$138,000 

1

34

 Bill Bainbridge

$146,000 

9

20.5

 Taniela Paseka

$138,000 

16

0

 Toafofoa Sipley

$143,000 

16

0

 Brett Stewart

$148,000 

17

0

 Darcy Lussick

$180,000 

19

17.9

 Curtis Sironen

$349,000 

20

38.5

 Matthew Wright

$272,000 

20

30.4

 Brad Parker

$138,000 

21

14

 Steve Matai

$202,000 

23

0

 Jonathan Wright

$201,000 

23

0

 Lloyd Perrett

$206,000 

25

23.9

 Brian Kelly

$212,000 

27

24.7

 Frank Winterstein

$237,000 

28

28.4

 Lewis Brown

$138,000 

33

13.3

 Shaun Lane

$285,000 

33

36.4

 Pita Godinet

$295,000 

34

0

 Jarrad Kennedy

$179,000 

34

9.5

 Addin Fonua-Blake

$247,000 

40

30.9

 Brenton Lawrence

$328,000 

42

35.7

 Blake Green

$249,000 

42

28.6

 Akuila Uate

$294,000 

43

34.4

 Jorge Taufua

$309,000 

45

32.6

 Cameron Cullen

$138,000 

45

6.6

 Apisai Koroisau

$360,000 

54

40.6

 Martin Taupau

$431,000 

55

52.1

 Jackson Hastings

$138,000 

57

7.7

 Dylan Walker

$279,000 

58

36.1

 Tom Trbojevic

$435,000 

61

45.5

 Jake Trbojevic

$495,000 

63

54.7

 Daly Cherry-Evans

$472,000 

64

47.7

Cronulla Sharks

Player

Price

Break Even

Average

 Edrick Lee

$217,000 

-3

27.2

 Fa'amanu Brown

$217,000 

9

25.9

 James Segeyaro

$256,000 

13

28.7

 Briton Nikora

$138,000 

16

0

 Jesse Ramien

$138,000 

16

0

 Billy Magoulias

$138,000 

16

0

 Kurt Dillon

$138,000 

16

0

 Manaia Cherrington

$143,000 

16

0

 Jordan Drew

$138,000 

16

0

 Joseph Paulo

$138,000 

17

14.4

 Gerard Beale

$183,000 

18

20.1

 Sam Tagataese

$148,000 

18

15.6

 Chris Heighington

$220,000 

22

25.1

 Matt Prior

$309,000 

23

34.6

 James Maloney

$261,000 

23

26.9

 Tony Williams

$289,000 

27

40

 Jeremy Latimore

$198,000 

29

21

 Jack Bird

$317,000 

35

32

 Jayson Bukuya

$309,000 

35

38.3

 Sosaia Feki

$260,000 

37

27.4

 Chad Townsend

$318,000 

37

37

 Valentine Holmes

$314,000 

40

37

 Luke Lewis

$309,000 

42

33.6

 Daniel Mortimer

$263,000 

43

21

 Ricky Leutele

$298,000 

45

33

 Jayden Brailey

$320,000 

49

36.5

 Kurt Capewell

$308,000 

55

31.9

 Wade Graham

$420,000 

60

46.7

 Paul Gallen

$526,000 

62

58.6

 Andrew Fifita

$472,000 

64

54

 Adam Clydsdale

$138,000 

82

9.9

Melbourne Storm

Player

Price

Break Even

Average

 Joe Stimson

$184,000 

-9

21.5

 Brandon Smith

$229,000 

3

40.3

 Brodie Croft

$308,000 

11

48.3

 Justin Olam

$138,000 

16

0

 Jeremy Hawkins

$143,000 

16

0

 Will Chambers

$279,000 

18

33.5

 Slade Griffin

$274,000 

20

32.7

 Ryley Jacks

$223,000 

22

28.5

 Nelson Asofa-Solomona

$326,000 

24

31.8

 Dean Britt

$138,000 

25

11

 Vincent Leuluai

$138,000 

27

10.5

 Nate Myles

$192,000 

27

21.6

 Suliasi Vunivalu

$271,000 

28

34.2

 Curtis Scott

$351,000 

29

51

 Josh Addo-Carr

$306,000 

30

35.5

 Jahrome Hughes

$408,000 

33

54.7

 Tim Glasby

$329,000 

36

36.1

 Robbie Rochow

$257,000 

38

24

 Kenneath Bromwich

$306,000 

39

33.8

 Young Tonumaipea

$270,000 

39

32.2

 Billy Slater

$436,000 

41

46

 Mark Nicholls

$138,000 

42

14.1

 Tui Kamikamica

$138,000 

42

7.5

 Christian Welch

$202,000 

43

23.3

 Jesse Bromwich

$353,000 

43

35.6

 Dale Finucane

$403,000 

44

43.4

 Cooper Cronk

$320,000 

46

39.7

 Jordan McLean

$347,000 

48

38.4

 Cheyse Blair

$269,000 

49

32.5

 Cameron Smith

$573,000 

55

63.3

 Tohu Harris

$353,000 

59

37.6

 Cameron Munster

$495,000 

59

49.6

 Felise Kaufusi

$389,000 

61

45.7

Wests Tigers

Player

Price

Break Even

Average

 Alex Twal

$269,000 

3

43.8

 Jamal Idris

$220,000 

5

29

 Matt McIlwrick

$235,000 

6

28.4

 Michael Chee-Kam

$173,000 

11

23.5

 Esan Marsters

$289,000 

14

35.4

 Dallas Graham

$138,000 

16

0

 Watson Heleta

$138,000 

16

0

 Junior Tatola

$138,000 

16

0

 Nathan Milone

$138,000 

16

0

 JJ Felise

$145,000 

16

15

 Rod Griffin

$138,000 

16

0

 Wesley Lolo

$138,000 

16

0

 Justin Hunt

$143,000 

16

0

 Joel Edwards

$205,000 

17

21.4

 Malakai Watene Zelezniak

$202,000 

19

23.9

 Matthew Eisenhuth

$289,000 

19

39.5

 Moses Suli

$264,000 

24

31.1

 Tuimoala Lolohea

$375,000 

27

37.7

 Chris Lawrence

$247,000 

27

30.4

 Tim Grant

$233,000 

28

28.5

 Jordan Rankin

$219,000 

29

18

 Tim Simona

$269,000 

31

0

 Josh Aloiai

$266,000 

33

27.3

 Luke Brooks

$349,000 

34

33.5

 Ava Seumanufagai

$296,000 

34

33.6

 Matt Ballin

$201,000 

36

7

 Jacob Liddle

$307,000 

36

29.5

 David Nofoaluma

$367,000 

38

44.6

 James Tedesco

$465,000 

38

51.4

 Sauaso Sue

$272,000 

38

30.6

 Kevin Naiqama

$256,000 

40

26

 Jack Littlejohn

$198,000 

43

23.3

 Aaron Woods

$478,000 

46

47.6

 Kyle Lovett

$311,000 

59

33.6

 Elijah Taylor

$378,000 

71

45.1

Gold Coke Titans

Player

Price

Break Even

Average

 Tyler Cornish

$146,000 

9

25

 Jamal Fogarty

$142,000 

10

23

 Paterika Vaivai

$153,000 

14

17.6

 William Zillman

$173,000 

15

15.6

 Alexander Brimson

$138,000 

16

0

 Keegan Hipgrave

$138,000 

16

0

 Jeff Lynch

$138,000 

16

0

 Lachlan Burr

$152,000 

17

0

 Nathaniel Peteru

$196,000 

18

22.4

 Pat Politoni

$170,000 

18

22.7

 Max King

$261,000 

22

26.4

 Edward Pettybourne

$154,000 

23

12.5

 Agnatius Paasi

$245,000 

23

27.1

 Tyrone Roberts

$234,000 

24

25.1

 Morgan Boyle

$269,000 

26

31.1

 Leivaha Pulu

$245,000 

27

30.5

 Ashley Taylor

$391,000 

28

39.6

 Phillip Sami

$138,000 

28

9

 Ryan James

$414,000 

30

48.3

 Kane Elgey

$212,000 

30

24.6

 Anthony Don

$216,000 

31

23.7

 Tyronne Roberts-Davis

$163,000 

31

18.7

 David Shillington

$271,000 

31

0

 Karl Lawton

$197,000 

34

22

 Dale Copley

$204,000 

36

24.5

 Jarryd Hayne

$325,000 

37

32.4

 Daniel Vidot

$218,000 

38

18.3

 Dan Sarginson

$238,000 

39

24

 Ryan Simpkins

$231,000 

40

25.4

 Chris McQueen

$259,000 

41

26.7

 Zeb Taia

$370,000 

42

0

 Joe Greenwood

$327,000 

44

33.7

 Kevin Proctor

$390,000 

44

39.8

 Nathan Peats

$403,000 

49

44.6

 Chris Grevsmuhl

$283,000 

56

23

 Jarrod Wallace

$374,000 

58

44.8

 Konrad Hurrell

$356,000 

59

36.9

 John Olive

$138,000 

60

2

New Zealand Warriors

Player

Price

Break Even

Average

 Nathaniel Roache

$194,000 

-17

23

 Mason Lino

$166,000 

6

27.5

 Bunty Afoa

$287,000 

8

33.4

 John Palavi

$143,000 

16

0

 Isaiah Papalii

$139,000 

16

16

 Matthew Allwood

$143,000 

16

0

 Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad

$239,000 

21

30.8

 Solomone Kata

$283,000 

23

27.7

 Jacob Lillyman

$299,000 

23

33.6

 James Gavet

$360,000 

27

35.9

 Sam Lisone

$263,000 

28

30.1

 David Fusitua

$193,000 

29

26.2

 Ben Matulino

$355,000 

30

38.7

 Ma'afoaeata Hingano

$138,000 

32

17

 Charlie Gubb

$213,000 

32

24.6

 Jazz Tevaga

$285,000 

33

0

 Kieran Foran

$341,000 

36

40.6

 Ryan Hoffman

$315,000 

39

36.5

 Blake Ayshford

$268,000 

39

28.1

 Ligi Sao

$138,000 

39

14.4

 Albert Vete

$207,000 

41

22.1

 Manu Vatuvei

$254,000 

44

9

 Issac Luke

$416,000 

44

42.6

 Bodene Thompson

$471,000 

49

44

 Roger Tuivasa-Sheck

$368,000 

51

40.6

 Shaun Johnson

$538,000 

51

58.1

 Ken Maumalo

$325,000 

65

31.6

 Simon Mannering

$591,000 

69

59.7

 

Published in NRL Fantasy
Sunday, 30 July 2017 00:00

What We Learnt - Storm vs Sea Eagles

Our early Sunday game for Round 21 was always going to be all about one man. Cameron Smith became just the 3rd player to participate in 350 NRL matches and he did not shirk his responsibilities.

Smith lead the scoring with four try assists, 6 goals, 31 tackles plus a couple of other attack stats to finish on 88*. If there was any doubt about Smith's mantle as 'Rule number 1' for NRL Fantasy players, it has been quashed well and truly with a mind boggling performance from CS9. He ran the team just like we've come to expect and whenever the Storm were on attack, #CAM350 was there to take advantage of a weak Manly side which finished on 69 missed tackles. 69!!

As far as other scores go;

The other Cameron, Munster, finished on 59*. 9 tackle busts and an offload will have to be some consolation for Munster owners, as he came close to scoring at least 3 times but couldn't quite cross the line.

Joe Stimson was handed another start and duly delivered with a try on his way to 58* points. He's definitely not a target for this season but once Tohu Harris departs, he could be an undervalued buy for 2018.

Curtis Scott had a quiet second half and ended the game on 41* points. This was his second game in an unfamiliar left centre position but he performed admirably. He should continue to grow through this year and is definitely a valid option to fill a spot in your 17 for the remainder of the season.

Martin Taupau had somewhat of a resurgence with 49* points in 44 minutes. He made 5 tackle busts and 3 offloads to get him back to being in the conversation for a spot in your side after a few less than stellar performances.

DCE and the Trbojevic Bros Inc were a major let down with Cherry-Evans finishing on 25* after contributing 9 of the aforementioned missed tackles. He wont suffer the same treatment every week and is someone you shouldn't hesitate to play for the remainder of the season, unless you have Cleary, Pearce and a host of bench forwards to play in his stead. Jake Trbojevic scored 40* with no attacking stats other than run metres. He wont have to play the Storm every week so you can expect his scores to increase for the remainder of the season. The same could be said for brother Tom, who was shut down by Melbourne. Despite a try-assist, he could only provide 23* points for his owners. 

Published in NRL Fantasy
Friday, 28 July 2017 00:00

What We Learnt - Warriors vs Sharks

Sharks win 26-12. That game was rather disappointing. As a Warriors fan, I'm not disappointed in their performance. I've come to expect it. But the way they rolled over in the last 20 minutes was pathetic. The more disappointing aspects of the match were the fantasy scores.

Bodene Thompson had a 33 point first half and scored a try to start the second stanza before suffering a shoulder injury. He still managed to top the scoring with 52* points from only 58 minutes. From reports, there was a 'crack'ing sound which could spell season over. All his owners will be severely disappointed as Thompson has been a strong POD over the last 6 weeks, averaging over 56.

Paul Gallen was the only other popular player to hit 50* points. Nothing special from the Sharks skipper, 30 tackles, 150+ metres and four offloads. Stock standard but still disappointing.

After that there was a run of very poor scores.

Simon Mannering's run of great scores came to a screeching halt with only 48*.

Andrew Fifita
continued his run of rather disappointing scores with 39*. That makes 6 games in a row since he's hit 60. Since the start of Oranges he's been a bum. The problem with Fifita is his potential to go out on any given week and score 100+. This is why you must hold and continue to play.


Roger Tuivasa-Sheck had a 9 point second half and finished on 38*. I suppose this could be considered a pass mark but it proves that he needs tries to really be considered a gun at WFB.

In fact the only surprising score was Fa'amanu Brown with 39*. He scored a first half try before going off in the 60th minute with a nasty head knock courtesy of Sam Lisone's knee. I would say 99.99% of Brown's owners would have had him riding the pine but if you were un(?)fortunate enough to have to play him **cough cough** Matthew Duggan **cough cough**, 39 points is a god send.

*All scores were correct at the time of writing and do not include updates.

Published in NRL Fantasy
Monday, 24 July 2017 00:00

Break Evens: Round 21

Brisbane Broncos

Player  BE  Games Ave  Price 
 George Fai           5 1 30    148,000
 David Mead          15 9 18.8    170,000
 Joe Boyce          16 0 0    138,000
 Francis Molo          16 0 0    143,000
 Gehamat Shibasaki          16 0 0    138,000
 Mosese Pangai          16 0 0    138,000
 Marion Seve          16 0 0    138,000
 Todd Murphy          16 0 0    138,000
 Salesi Funaki          16 0 0    138,000
 James Roberts          20 17 44.5    379,000
 Jamayne Isaako          20 1 13    138,000
 Tevita Pangai Junior          21 12 29.1    257,000
 Jai Arrow          22 7 26.9    235,000
 Jonus Pearson          23 5 17    183,000
 Jordan Kahu          27 17 28.1    256,000
 Tom Opacic          27 0 0    237,000
 Tautau Moga          29 18 37.1    373,000
 Korbin Sims          30 17 34.7    303,000
 Alex Glenn          31 18 35    376,000
 Kodi Nikorima          34 11 33.8    263,000
 Corey Oates          36 13 34.4    332,000
 Travis Waddell          40 1 14    253,000
 Jo Ofahengaue          42 10 33.2    308,000
 Sam Thaiday          42 17 32.9    296,000
 Jaydn Su'a          43 3 26.7    280,000
 Herman Ese'ese          43 14 32.5    300,000
 Adam Blair          45 18 32.6    303,000
 Matt Gillett          47 16 48.6    462,000
 Darius Boyd          48 13 34.3    324,000
 Andrew McCullough          50 17 58.5    474,000
 Benji Marshall          52 8 22.4    234,000
 Ben Hunt          55 12 47.5    429,000
 Anthony Milford          56 14 44.6    423,000
 Josh McGuire          73 16 45.4    353,000

Canterbury Bulldogs

Player  BE  Games Ave  Price 
 Raymond Faitala-Mariner -         9 10 28    262,000
 Chase Stanley           5 5 35.8    271,000
 Zac Woolford          16 0 0    138,000
 Renouf Toomaga          16 0 0    138,000
 Josh Cleeland          16 0 0    138,000
 Asipeli Fine          16 2 15    140,000
 Kerrod Holland          17 11 30.6    287,000
 Sam Kasiano          17 18 23.8    235,000
 Brad Abbey          19 4 19.8    168,000
 Danny Fualalo          20 18 23.6    257,000
 Francis Tualau          20 5 17.6    149,000
 Marcelo Montoya          22 13 27.9    265,000
 Tyrone Phillips          23 0 0    204,000
 Andy Saunders          25 1 10    138,000
 Richard Kennar          27 0 0    232,000
 Reimis Smith          27 0 0    236,000
 David Klemmer          31 15 36.9    326,000
 Greg Eastwood          33 15 21.7    178,000
 Josh Reynolds          33 13 32.2    273,000
 Matt Frawley          38 13 28.7    253,000
 Aiden Tolman          39 18 48.9    440,000
 Brenko Lee          41 13 35.6    324,000
 Brett Morris          41 14 29.1    230,000
 Adam Elliot          42 18 33.4    342,000
 Josh Morris          42 18 32.8    249,000
 Will Hopoate          45 12 41    362,000
 Craig Garvey          46 3 8.7    186,000
 James Graham          47 14 45.1    353,000
 Josh Jackson          50 16 42.9    370,000
 Moses Mbye          51 17 39.4    429,000
 Michael Lichaa          66 18 35.3    296,000

North Queensland Cowboys

Player  BE  Games Ave  Price 
 Kyle Laybutt           8 2 23    150,000
 Blake Leary          13 3 20    159,000
 Sam Hoare          14 2 20.5    159,000
 Gideon Gela-Mosby          14 4 35.5    240,000
 Carlin Anderson          16 0 0    138,000
 Patrick Mago          16 0 0    138,000
 Braden Uele          16 0 0    138,000
 Enari Tuala          16 0 0    138,000
 Corey Jensen          18 7 20.3    175,000
 Javid Bowen          22 8 27.5    249,000
 Kalyn Ponga          23 6 49    374,000
 Jake Granville          24 14 34    307,000
 Patrick Kaufusi          25 9 26.9    240,000
 Shaun Fensom          26 13 30.8    290,000
 Justin O'Neill          27 14 25.6    272,000
 Ethan Lowe          27 18 38.8    357,000
 Josh Chudleigh          27 0 0    236,000
 Lachlan Coote          28 12 25    216,000
 Ray Thompson          31 6 16.7    181,000
 Ben Hampton          31 17 18.7    138,000
 Ben Spina          32 8 21.8    190,000
 Gavin Cooper          35 17 40.2    338,000
 Te Maire Martin          36 10 36.7    320,000
 Johnathan Thurston          37 7 48.6    443,000
 Antonio Winterstein          37 11 22.6    213,000
 Kane Linnett          38 18 27.1    281,000
 John Asiata          39 18 27.3    226,000
 Coen Hess          42 17 44.9    374,000
 Kyle Feldt          44 18 31.6    358,000
 Scott Bolton          45 18 43.6    387,000
 Matthew Scott          47 2 35.5    348,000
 Michael Morgan          55 17 40.6    429,000
 Jason Taumalolo          65 16 62.3    552,000

St George Dragons

Player  BE  Games Ave  Price 
 Matthew Dufty -       30 1 84    188,000
 Jacob Host           8 9 24    230,000
 Kalifa Faifai Loa          11 2 48.5    284,000
 Hame Sele          13 12 19.3    182,000
 Tyrone McCarthy          16 0 0    143,000
 Kiti Glymin          16 0 0    138,000
 Shaun Nona          16 0 0    138,000
 Siliva Havili          18 0 0    152,000
 Luciano Leilua          19 0 0    161,000
 Nene Macdonald          19 18 33.8    334,000
 Mose Masoe          19 0 0    166,000
 Gareth Widdop          22 15 45.9    380,000
 Jake Marketo          25 0 0    214,000
 Will Matthews          29 0 0    253,000
 Euan Aitken          30 11 40    322,000
 Leeson Ah Mau          33 18 40.9    451,000
 Josh McCrone          33 18 31.2    232,000
 Taane Milne          33 10 15.4    148,000
 Drew Hutchison          34 0 0    296,000
 Blake Lawrie          37 2 9.5    138,000
 Timoteo Lafai          42 18 40.5    335,000
 Kurt Mann          44 16 28.9    285,000
 Tyson Frizell          44 16 45.7    433,000
 Jason Nightingale          48 18 34.7    332,000
 Tariq Sims          49 18 37.1    371,000
 Joel Thompson          50 17 44.1    374,000
 Paul Vaughan          51 17 52.4    430,000
 Jai Field          52 3 8.3    138,000
 Jack de Belin          54 17 58.2    518,000
 Russell Packer          58 18 34.4    306,000
 Josh Dugan          60 12 44.6    409,000
 Cameron McInnes          61 18 54.5    469,000

Parrammatta Eels

Player  BE  Games Ave  Price 
 Cameron King           5 3 31.3    193,000
 Semi Radradra           8 18 36.6    374,000
 Kirisome Auva'a          14 8 24    205,000
 Josh Hoffman          14 13 21    204,000
 Marata Niukore          16 0 0    138,000
 James Hasson          16 0 0    138,000
 Cody Nelson          16 0 0    143,000
 John Folau          16 0 0    143,000
 Siosaia Vave          20 12 27    240,000
 Nathan Davis          20 1 23    187,000
 Kelepi Tanginoa          20 0 0    170,000
 George Jennings          20 0 0    175,000
 Rory O'Brien          21 2 20    180,000
 Brad Takairangi          22 15 25.6    213,000
 Suaia Matagi          22 18 26.5    214,000
 Bureta Faraimo          23 0 0    202,000
 Bevan French          24 13 32.9    307,000
 Frank Pritchard          25 6 26.2    240,000
 Jeff Robson          25 1 36    266,000
 David Gower          30 6 25.3    244,000
 Will Smith          31 9 25.2    209,000
 Isaac De Gois          32 0 0    275,000
 Daniel Alvaro          33 17 33.6    325,000
 Mitchell Moses          33 18 32.8    310,000
 Nathan Brown          33 17 48.9    473,000
 Kenny Edwards          35 11 38.6    387,000
 Peni Terepo          37 2 34    306,000
 Clinton Gutherson          42 18 44.4    427,000
 Beau Scott          42 14 33.2    316,000
 Michael Jennings          43 15 34.5    300,000
 Tim Mannah          44 17 29.8    245,000
 Tepai Moeroa          45 15 39.3    389,000
 Manu Ma'u          49 17 40.6    365,000
 Corey Norman          50 14 47.2    388,000
 Kaysa Pritchard          60 15 36.5    304,000

Newcastle Knights

Player  BE  Games Ave  Price 
 Chanel Mata'utia           5 3 27.3    177,000
 Jaelen Feeney          13 8 19.9    188,000
 Josh King          13 9 26.1    231,000
 Will Pearsall          16 0 0    143,000
 Tom Hughes          16 0 0    138,000
 Jacob Gagan          16 1 16    143,000
 Cory Denniss          17 0 0    149,000
 Dylan Phythian          21 1 10    139,000
 Rory Kostjasyn          24 0 0    210,000
 Jacob Saifiti          25 15 23    206,000
 Joe Wardle          27 12 24    205,000
 David Bhana          27 0 0    238,000
 Pat Mata'utia          30 0 0    258,000
 Danny Levi          30 18 34.6    313,000
 Ken Sio          31 15 19.3    156,000
 Mitchell Barnett          31 16 44.7    413,000
 Pauli Pauli          32 0 0    276,000
 Jack Cogger          33 0 0    286,000
 Peter Mata'utia          33 18 27    224,000
 Josh Starling          33 13 29.8    280,000
 Brendan Elliot          34 12 28.1    231,000
 Tyler Randell          34 5 8.6    152,000
 Shaun Kenny-Dowall          35 10 30.3    309,000
 Anthony Tupou          36 4 19    206,000
 Trent Hodkinson          37 11 29    272,000
 Sione Mata'utia          38 18 36.7    331,000
 Mickey Paea          38 3 9.7    176,000
 Jarrod Mullen          38 0 0    331,000
 Brock Lamb          40 17 34.5    307,000
 Dane Gagai          41 17 41.4    413,000
 Nathan Ross          41 16 33.9    333,000
 Daniel Saifiti          41 18 36.7    339,000
 Jack Stockwell          44 10 27.8    231,000
 Luke Yates          45 15 31.1    269,000
 Sam Stone          46 11 31    309,000
 Lachlan Fitzgibbon          51 8 38.3    319,000
 Jamie Buhrer          57 10 47.7    423,000
 Sam Mataora          65 1 4    339,000

Penrith Panthers

Player  BE  Games Ave  Price 
 Tyrone May -         2 1 43    158,000
 Waqa Blake           3 17 30.4    266,000
 Michael Oldfield           7 1 31    159,000
 Dean Whare          14 15 19.8    161,000
 Jed Cartwright          16 0 0    138,000
 Darren Nicholls          16 0 0    138,000
 Kaide Ellis          16 0 0    138,000
 Samisoni Langi          17 0 0    144,000
 Reagan Campbell-Gillard          19 18 35    286,000
 Moses Leota          20 6 15.7    141,000
 James Fisher-Harris          25 7 20.4    206,000
 Leilani Latu          27 18 23    206,000
 Dallin Watene Zelezniak          30 16 33.1    287,000
 Tim Browne          32 13 25.5    227,000
 Peta Hiku          33 9 19.9    212,000
 Sam McKendry          33 0 0    283,000
 Tyrone Peachey          34 17 33.5    235,000
 Nathan Cleary          42 18 53.9    566,000
 Sione Katoa          44 5 11.6    138,000
 Corey Harawira-Naera          44 14 43.4    347,000
 James Tamou          47 18 40.2    355,000
 Viliame Kikau          52 9 13.9    138,000
 Matt Moylan          53 16 36    334,000
 Sitaleki Akauola          53 7 12.6    138,000
 Isaah Yeo          55 17 44.3    372,000
 Dylan Edwards          58 9 48.7    401,000
 Peter Wallace          58 12 38.3    333,000
 Josh Mansour          59 7 38.4    348,000
 Bryce Cartwright          60 6 22.7    288,000
 Trent Merrin          63 17 45.6    415,000
 Mitch Rein          64 5 43    408,000

South Sydney Rabbitohs

Player  BE  Games Ave  Price 
 Sitiveni Moceidreke           9 1 27    148,000
 Jack Gosiewski          16 0 0    143,000
 Robert Jennings          16 10 25.6    213,000
 Cameron Murray          22 3 14.3    138,000
 Dane Nielsen          23 0 0    204,000
 Anthony Cherrington          24 5 15    138,000
 Siosifa Talakai          25 7 29.7    251,000
 Braidon Burns          25 10 20    182,000
 Kyle Turner          27 15 30.7    261,000
 George Burgess          28 12 25.9    254,000
 Thomas Burgess          28 16 33.2    291,000
 Luke Kelly          28 1 28    244,000
 Jason Clark          28 14 30.4    251,000
 Damien Cook          30 17 28.1    205,000
 Hymel Hunt          32 10 22.4    217,000
 Zane Musgrove          32 17 30.8    265,000
 Aaron Gray          32 6 25    241,000
 David Tyrrell          34 5 25    223,000
 John Sutton          36 18 39.9    316,000
 Adam Reynolds          46 16 47.6    414,000
 Robbie Farah          46 18 37.3    369,000
 Bryson Goodwin          47 17 31.8    331,000
 Tyrell Fuimaono          47 9 34.2    294,000
 Cody Walker          48 18 45    393,000
 Alex Johnston          63 18 32.4    318,000
 Greg Inglis          63 1 25    405,000
 Angus Crichton          68 17 61.4    625,000
 Sam Burgess          74 17 54.4    479,000

Canberra Raiders

Player  BE  Games Ave  Price 
 Aidan Sezer -       10 18 28.9    285,000
 Kurt Baptiste          12 5 17.6    150,000
 Makahesi Makatoa          16 0 0    138,000
 Brent Naden          16 0 0    138,000
 Lachlan Croker          16 0 0    143,000
 Zac Santo          16 1 29    188,000
 Joseph Tapine          19 16 37.1    351,000
 Clay Priest          21 12 25.2    226,000
 Shannon Boyd          24 17 30.2    277,000
 Dunamis Lui          24 7 16.3    163,000
 Dave Taylor          25 5 21    205,000
 Jordan Turner          27 0 0    233,000
 Luke Bateman          27 16 28.4    250,000
 Sia Soliola          30 18 37.4    336,000
 Jeff Lima          31 2 11    175,000
 Erin Clark          32 1 6    138,000
 Jack Wighton          33 17 33.8    291,000
 Nick Cotric          34 18 39.3    367,000
 Blake Austin          38 18 36.7    321,000
 Scott Sorensen          39 2 9    138,000
 Royce Hunt          40 1 1    138,000
 Elliott Whitehead          42 17 41.7    398,000
 Jarrod Croker          44 16 37.7    325,000
 Josh Hodgson          45 17 42.4    377,000
 Joseph Leilua          51 18 33.7    323,000
 Junior Paulo          54 17 43.1    396,000
 Josh Papalii          58 15 53.6    445,000
 Adam Clydsdale          83 11 9.9    138,000
 Jordan Rapana          88 18 50.8    431,000

Sydney Roosters

Player  BE  Games Ave  Price 
 Victor Radley           3 1 34    151,000
 Isaac Liu           6 14 32.4    287,000
 Connor Watson          12 14 26.5    274,000
 Chris Smith          13 1 19    144,000
 Brock Gray          16 0 0    138,000
 Liam Knight          16 0 0    143,000
 Jayden Nikorima          21 0 0    181,000
 Eloni Vunakece          21 0 0    183,000
 Daniel Tupou          21 17 33.4    281,000
 Nat Butcher          25 2 13.5    162,000
 Blake Ferguson          25 14 32.6    306,000
 Zane Tetevano          26 16 23.8    226,000
 Kane Evans          28 11 22.6    209,000
 Mitchell Cornish          31 3 13.3    178,000
 Dylan Napa          32 14 27.9    253,000
 Ryan Matterson          35 15 39.1    402,000
 Mitchell Aubusson          38 17 40.2    328,000
 Luke Keary          39 18 34.9    292,000
 Jared Waerea-Hargreaves          40 18 40.3    335,000
 Sio Siua Taukeiaho          40 9 38.8    358,000
 Latrell Mitchell          41 15 37.4    336,000
 Jake Friend          42 16 50.6    477,000
 Aidan Guerra          44 17 43.7    384,000
 Joseph Manu          45 13 29.6    269,000
 Lindsay Collins          45 2 8    138,000
 Michael Gordon          51 17 40.2    336,000
 Boyd Cordner          54 12 49    467,000
 Paul Carter          58 3 14.3    261,000
 Mitchell Pearce          67 15 57.2    524,000

Manly Sea Eagles

Player  BE  Games Ave  Price 
 Joey Lussick           1 1 34    138,000
 Bill Bainbridge           9 2 20.5    146,000
 Shaun Lane          14 4 40.8    282,000
 Taniela Paseka          16 0 0    138,000
 Toafofoa Sipley          16 0 0    143,000
 Brett Stewart          17 0 0    148,000
 Matthew Wright          18 8 29.5    258,000
 Darcy Lussick          19 7 17.6    180,000
 Brian Kelly          19 18 25.2    215,000
 Curtis Sironen          20 14 38.5    349,000
 Brad Parker          21 2 14    138,000
 Steve Matai          23 0 0    202,000
 Frank Winterstein          23 18 28.8    239,000
 Jonathan Wright          23 0 0    201,000
 Akuila Uate          24 17 35.9    305,000
 Lloyd Perrett          25 9 23.9    206,000
 Jarrad Kennedy          34 2 9.5    179,000
 Tom Trbojevic          34 16 47.1    446,000
 Pita Godinet          34 0 0    295,000
 Brenton Lawrence          35 17 36.1    332,000
 Cameron Cullen          36 4 8.5    157,000
 Daly Cherry-Evans          39 18 48.9    482,000
 Blake Green          39 17 29.1    264,000
 Addin Fonua-Blake          44 16 31.6    265,000
 Apisai Koroisau          44 17 41.6    377,000
 Jorge Taufua          45 12 32.6    309,000
 Dylan Walker          51 18 37.7    312,000
 Lewis Brown          53 15 12.7    138,000
 Jake Trbojevic          53 17 55.6    505,000
 Jackson Hastings          57 9 7.7    138,000
 Martin Taupau          70 15 52.1    445,000

Cronulla Sharks

Player  BE  Games Ave  Price 
 Edrick Lee -         3 5 27.2    217,000
 Fa'amanu Brown          10 6 23.8    197,000
 James Segeyaro          11 5 27.2    238,000
 Gerard Beale          14 14 20.3    181,000
 Briton Nikora          16 0 0    138,000
 Manaia Cherrington          16 0 0    143,000
 Kurt Dillon          16 0 0    138,000
 Jesse Ramien          16 0 0    138,000
 Jordan Drew          16 0 0    138,000
 Billy Magoulias          16 0 0    138,000
 Joseph Paulo          17 10 14.4    138,000
 Sam Tagataese          18 9 15.6    148,000
 James Maloney          23 15 26.9    261,000
 Matt Prior          26 17 34.2    298,000
 Tony Williams          27 1 40    289,000
 Jeremy Latimore          28 13 21.1    205,000
 Chris Heighington          32 17 24.5    219,000
 Jack Bird          35 15 32    317,000
 Ricky Leutele          39 18 33.6    312,000
 Valentine Holmes          40 15 37.6    324,000
 Sosaia Feki          42 17 27.4    271,000
 Daniel Mortimer          43 2 21    263,000
 Kurt Capewell          46 11 32.5    324,000
 Wade Graham          47 16 47.4    430,000
 Jayden Brailey          49 15 36.5    320,000
 Jayson Bukuya          52 16 38    317,000
 Paul Gallen          55 18 59.2    532,000
 Luke Lewis          56 16 33.1    321,000
 Chad Townsend          56 18 36.4    325,000
 Andrew Fifita          64 16 54.8    490,000

Melbourne Storm

Player  BE  Games Ave  Price 
 Slade Griffin           2 5 35.4    262,000
 Brandon Smith           3 3 40.3    229,000
 Nelson Asofa-Solomona           6 17 31.9    309,000
 Brodie Croft          11 3 48.3    308,000
 Joe Stimson          13 11 18.2    151,000
 Curtis Scott          14 4 53.3    331,000
 Justin Olam          16 0 0    138,000
 Jeremy Hawkins          16 0 0    143,000
 Ryley Jacks          23 11 28.5    223,000
 Dale Finucane          25 18 44    398,000
 Dean Britt          25 1 11    138,000
 Vincent Leuluai          27 2 10.5    138,000
 Nate Myles          27 12 21.6    192,000
 Jahrome Hughes          29 2 56.5    393,000
 Kenneath Bromwich          31 17 34.4    311,000
 Will Chambers          35 14 32.4    269,000
 Tim Glasby          35 16 36.1    329,000
 Suliasi Vunivalu          38 17 33.6    267,000
 Robbie Rochow          38 8 24    257,000
 Young Tonumaipea          39 6 32.2    270,000
 Billy Slater          41 13 46    436,000
 Jesse Bromwich          41 14 35.7    359,000
 Tui Kamikamica          42 2 7.5    138,000
 Mark Nicholls          42 9 14.1    138,000
 Christian Welch          43 8 23.3    202,000
 Cheyse Blair          49 13 32.5    269,000
 Jordan McLean          50 11 38.6    357,000
 Josh Addo-Carr          51 18 33.9    298,000
 Cooper Cronk          55 14 39.9    334,000
 Cameron Munster          56 14 49.1    496,000
 Tohu Harris          59 8 37.6    353,000
 Felise Kaufusi          66 18 46.2    411,000
 Cameron Smith          76 14 61.3    563,000

Wests Tigers

Player  BE  Games Ave  Price 
 Alex Twal -         8 3 44.3    233,000
 Jamal Idris           5 5 29    220,000
 Matt McIlwrick          11 18 27.6    212,000
 Michael Chee-Kam          11 17 23.6    166,000
 Matthew Eisenhuth          14 5 39.8    272,000
 Nathan Milone          16 0 0    138,000
 Watson Heleta          16 0 0    138,000
 Junior Tatola          16 0 0    138,000
 Dallas Graham          16 0 0    138,000
 Wesley Lolo          16 0 0    138,000
 Justin Hunt          16 0 0    143,000
 Rod Griffin          16 0 0    138,000
 JJ Felise          17 5 15    145,000
 Joel Edwards          17 9 21.4    205,000
 Esan Marsters          22 7 33    268,000
 Malakai Watene Zelezniak          24 8 23.6    201,000
 Moses Suli          24 16 31.1    264,000
 David Nofoaluma          28 18 45    361,000
 Tuimoala Lolohea          28 11 36.2    356,000
 Jordan Rankin          30 1 18    219,000
 Tim Simona          31 0 0    269,000
 Luke Brooks          32 12 32.5    340,000
 Josh Aloiai          33 11 27.3    266,000
 Ava Seumanufagai          34 17 33.6    296,000
 Tim Grant          34 13 28.3    236,000
 Matt Ballin          36 1 7    201,000
 Kevin Naiqama          36 18 26.5    271,000
 Jacob Liddle          36 13 29.5    307,000
 James Tedesco          37 15 50.7    448,000
 Jack Littlejohn          37 10 25.3    224,000
 Sauaso Sue          38 16 30.8    280,000
 Aaron Woods          50 16 46.5    468,000
 Chris Lawrence          52 12 28.8    250,000
 Kyle Lovett          59 7 33.6    311,000
 Elijah Taylor          69 17 46.7    418,000

Gold Coast Titans

Player  BE  Games Ave  Price 
 William Zillman           5 9 15.7    167,000
 Tyrone Roberts           9 15 26.1    233,000
 Tyler Cornish           9 1 25    146,000
 Jamal Fogarty          10 1 23    142,000
 Paterika Vaivai          14 7 17.6    153,000
 Max King          14 12 26.2    250,000
 Alexander Brimson          16 0 0    138,000
 Keegan Hipgrave          16 0 0    138,000
 Jeff Lynch          16 0 0    138,000
 Nathaniel Peteru          17 9 22.3    192,000
 Ashley Taylor          17 18 39.2    370,000
 Pat Politoni          18 3 22.7    170,000
 Lachlan Burr          18 0 0    152,000
 Morgan Boyle          22 10 31.6    266,000
 Edward Pettybourne          23 2 12.5    154,000
 Jarryd Hayne          26 12 32.3    321,000
 Anthony Don          26 14 24.1    222,000
 Phillip Sami          28 1 9    138,000
 Karl Lawton          29 10 23.4    213,000
 Leivaha Pulu          30 16 30.6    247,000
 David Shillington          31 0 0    271,000
 Tyronne Roberts-Davis          31 6 18.7    163,000
 Ryan James          31 18 47.8    395,000
 Agnatius Paasi          33 7 25.9    243,000
 Kane Elgey          37 13 24.6    222,000
 Joe Greenwood          37 16 34.3    337,000
 Daniel Vidot          38 3 18.3    218,000
 Dale Copley          39 14 24.6    217,000
 Dan Sarginson          39 5 24    238,000
 Ryan Simpkins          40 8 25.4    231,000
 Chris McQueen          41 13 26.7    259,000
 Zeb Taia          43 0 0    370,000
 Kevin Proctor          44 12 39.8    390,000
 Jarrod Wallace          49 17 46.2    394,000
 Nathan Peats          52 10 44.5    408,000
 Chris Grevsmuhl          56 4 23    283,000
 Konrad Hurrell          59 16 36.9    356,000
 John Olive          60 2 2    138,000

New Zealand Warriors

Player  BE  Games Ave  Price 
 Nathaniel Roache -       17 7 23    194,000
 Mason Lino           7 1 30    153,000
 Bunty Afoa          12 11 32    261,000
 Isaiah Papalii          16 1 16    139,000
 John Palavi          16 0 0    143,000
 Matthew Allwood          16 0 0    143,000
 Solomone Kata          21 13 26.9    271,000
 Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad          22 6 30.8    239,000
 Sam Lisone          27 17 30.1    262,000
 James Gavet          28 13 35.9    360,000
 Ma'afoaeata Hingano          29 8 18.5    154,000
 Jacob Lillyman          31 17 32.8    288,000
 David Fusitua          31 18 26.7    205,000
 Charlie Gubb          32 8 24.6    213,000
 Jazz Tevaga          33 0 0    285,000
 Ben Matulino          38 11 37.6    346,000
 Ligi Sao          38 10 14.5    138,000
 Blake Ayshford          39 15 28.5    281,000
 Ryan Hoffman          39 15 36.5    315,000
 Kieran Foran          41 13 40.5    341,000
 Albert Vete          41 8 22.1    207,000
 Bodene Thompson          43 18 43.5    465,000
 Manu Vatuvei          44 1 9    254,000
 Issac Luke          44 17 42.4    415,000
 Simon Mannering          46 16 60.4    590,000
 Roger Tuivasa-Sheck          50 17 40.9    380,000
 Shaun Johnson          52 17 58.1    538,000
 Ken Maumalo          59 17 32.3    356,000
Published in NRL Fantasy
Sunday, 23 July 2017 00:00

What We Learnt - Tigers vs Eels

The Parramatta Eels have beaten the Wests Tigers at ANZ Stadium, requiring a late field goal from Corey Norman to take a 17-16 win and solidify their position in the top 8 on the NRL ladder.

James Tedesco scored his FIRST TRY SINCE ROUND ONE (!) and added 9 tackle breaks to lead the scoring with 61* points. It was always a matter of when and not if, Tedesco got back on the score sheet and with a price tag of around $440,000 next week looks the goods for the run home. He's a popular option with almost 25% ownership but you can definitely count on him to produce when it matters.

Nathan Brown continued a strong run of form with 59* to bring his 5 round average to 59.8. He's a solid workhorse and also has a good offload which adds to his appeal. If you're a Burgess owner and concerned about his availability, Brown is a great trade target as the Eels continue their push to the finals. They'll need all his metres and tackles if they want to make a run at the top 4.

For anyone that had the faith, or didn't have a choice, Semi Radradra returned a great score of 52*. He was very involved tonight and finished with one try, a try assist and 3 line breaks along with 202 metres. As is always the problem with the flying Fijian, he has his good and his bad weeks. The Eels face a reasonably easy schedule for the remainder of the regular season but start with a game against the 3rd ranked Broncos next week. He's definitely a match up based play but against the weaker teams he can run riot.

Corey Norman had a whole host of attacking stats but could still only return a score of 36*, thanks largely to a late line break. There were high hopes on Norman continuing his early season form alongside Mitchell Moses, however he hasn't topped 43 points since round 9 and averages just 40.2 with Moses in the team. In all likelihood, Norman owners won't have much of a choice but to hold and hope he turns it around.

Clint Gutherson owners will be nervously awaiting reports of a possible injury that befell him towards the end of the match. I am one such person and while I am happy with his 46* from tonights match, an injury will not be such fantastic news. He's great fun to watch and is very hungry for the ball. He's very capable of very large scores and averages 49.2 in his last 5 matches. If he does succumb to injury, I can't imagine it will be a long term one. Here's hoping you have some cover.

*All scores do not include updates and were accurate at time of publication.

Published in NRL Fantasy
Sunday, 23 July 2017 00:00

What We Learnt - Dragons vs Sea Eagles

Game of two halves... almost.
The Dragons blew the Sea-Eagles off the park at WIN Stadium in a high scoring affair. The St George-Illawaara team scored 9 tries to Manlys 4 in what can only be described as a flip-flopping affair.
The Dragons held a 30-0 half time lead thanks to tries to Nightingale, Lafai, Aitken, Host and Widdop.
With Manly desperate to hit back, Dylan Walker got them off to a good start by dotting down in the 42nd minute. 
What followed can only be described as mind boggling. The Dragons were in possession inside the Manly 20 when a dust up betwen Jack de Belin and Darcy Lussick resulted in the former throwing a punch and being binned. 
De Belin can also count himself lucky as it looked to some like he struck out with an elbow but the fact he was holding the ball with the same arm may save him from further scrutiny.
Manly then went on the attack, scoring 3 tries in the 10 minutes that Lussick was off the field to little brother Joey Lussick, Akuila Uate and Jake Trbojevic which closed the game up at 30-22.
As soon as Darcy returned to the field, the Dragons scored through Paul Vaughan which kick started another run of points as the game finished 52-22.

Star of the future, or now.

With the news that Josh Dugan would miss the game, Matt Dufty finally got his chance at fullback and was one of the Dragons best. He finished on 82* points with 11 tackle busts, 194 running metres, two try assists and capped it off with the final try of the game. Why this kid has been held back for so long beats me and the Dragons faithful will hope he can retain his spot at the back. With Euan Aitken going down after scoring his second try, perhaps Josh Dugan can return into the centres? We'll have to wait and see but the fact of the matter is, The Dragons looked a lot more electric with Dufty in the side.

Trbojevic Bros Inc roll on
Jake and Tom continue to shine in the Manly team with Jake nabbing a try for the second game in a row and finishing on 72* points. With Sam Burgess possibly missing time on the run home, Jake will be a popular target and at under 10% ownership could provide a nice alternative to the mainstays in the forwards. Tom couldn't get on the scoreboard today but he did turn provider for one try and saved another, finishing on 49*. He had a very quiet game so to still produce a score of that level is fantastic news for all his owners. Another potential Burgess trade target with Curtis Scott and Tyrell Fuimaono both disappointing this week.


Guns are guns for a reason
And the reason is clear. Average 50 or more and you'll be considered for a season ending spot in a lot of teams. The usual suspects Jack de Belin (60*) and Paul Vaughan (56*) continued to provide as they have all season. JdB managed 76 minutes today with Joel Thompson sidelined in the warm up and Packer being pulled early after some dismal defending led to the Manly fight back. Vaughan scored a try so his score may disappoint some of his owners but with a couple of less than ideal scores recently, I'd be laughing all the way to the bank.


And guns will soon no longer be guns...
Cameron McInnes and Martin Taupau will count themselves lucky that everyone is running low on trades but I have no doubt they will still find themselves in the shop window for a number of teams this week following two very disappointing scores of 34* and 33* respectively. McInnes is notorious for relying on tackle counts and with the Dragons having the majority of possession, he only managed to make 39 today. Combine that with 1 missed tackle, 1 error and 1 penalty conceded and McInnes was never in the hunt for a top score. With his running metres drying up (he hasn't run for more than 20 metres since round 15) he will be a hard hold, but with Cameron Smith possible missing some time, there aren't really any better options. Taupau started the game with some strong runs and when he went off after his first stint of 25 minutes, was on 28 points. Unfortunately, he must have watched what Andrew Fifita did on Friday night as his second 22 minute stint returned just 5 points. With 10 minutes remaining he was actually on less than his half time score. Taupau has been rather disappointing of late, with two sub-35 scores in his last 4 games. I'm sure if there were more trades floating around, he'd be a goner.


*Scores do not include updates and were correct at time of writing.

Published in NRL Fantasy
Friday, 21 July 2017 00:00

What We Learnt - Sharks vs Rabbitohs

Sharks put the Rabbits back in their Sh*tty burrow.
By The Big Tree

Oh Crikey!

Sorry for ever doubting you oh Fantasy god Angus Crichton! Playing through his apparent foot fracture Crikey pumps out a beastly 86* to appease all his wary owners. A few sells this week, let's hope those coaches know what they're doing. 

No sign of Gal slowing down! 

Still powered by peptides? Gallen tops the metres gained column once again, not quite enough extras such as OLs and TBs to return another gun score. How does the old bull keep doing it?! 49* will have to do this week.

Sammy Boyle is running dry.

38* why oh why! Midweek Facebook group speculation that Sam Burgess was carrying a neck injury likened to that of his Pommy counterpart James Graham had a few worried. Whether this be true or absolutely horrifying scenes in the 74th minute as Surgess leaves the field with what looks like rib cartilage issues. Those Zero Traders won't sleep well. 

Fui/Scott Saga - Advantage Gamblers

Another storyline all week has been whether to run Fuimaono at CTR, or gamble on Scott being a late call up and risk an AE. A paltry 24* from Fuimaono tonight leaves the advantage with the gamblers as we saw CMat score 29 who a lot were saying could be their AE should Scott not make the 17. We wait. 

Flatline Fifita.

With a monstrous 36 in his first stint Fifita owners were salivating at the prospect of him coming back and ripping in. In the 2nd half we witness a classic case of what goes up must come down as he manages a gross 11 in his second. 47*. 


Oh, and, Reynolds played well for a guy with a broken thumb....

Published in NRL Fantasy
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