Renegades Team

Renegades Team

The Renegades Writers combine passion for the game, with a lack of editorial oversight. When they aren't next to the water cooler bitching about that try assist the stats guys missed, they are churning out sports articles that have been widely touted as "readable".

Thursday, 26 May 2016 10:00

Fluke or For Real: Elijah Taylor

After being marginalised early this season ET finds himself at the Tigers, a team that could certainly use his presence. His first two games have returned scores of 45 and 61 and he’s finally stopped dropping in price. He has decent byes and plays this weekend. Is ET the 2RF of your dreams or will you be singing Why, Why, Why Elijah? Is ET a close to 50 point keeper or is he Zeb Taia? Fluke or For Real?

JWarrior

This one is purely for Huey and Steve. Fluke he will be back to his missed tackle best soon enough. This will lead to reduced minutes and more misery for old ET owners. No chance of averaging 50 for rest of the season. FLUKE

The Hotshot

Purely because of the parameters set. He will average CLOSE TO 50 but not over it. If you need an 18th man on the cheap then he is a great option, otherwise there are better players out there. FOR REAL

Paul Baker 

May not average 50 plus, but essential for this round in my opinion. As long as he makes 45 tackles this week, IDC he's in my team. FLEAL

Rowan Oswald 

He will average closer to 40 than 50. He is a tackle machine but he also goes through Paul Carter type brain snaps where he racks up a ridiculous amount of negative points. He is good coverage for the bye rounds but I would not have him in my starting 17 post Origin. This weekend against a depleted Broncos outfit will be the real test to see what type of player he is this year. Also Sue is back so there is that too. FLUKE

Steve Nicholls

Elijah and I have a complicated history. He caught my eye one day from the other side of my excel spreadsheet. We talked a bit (mostly me, he just listened). We got together. Things were great. Then he missed some tackles and committed some penalties. Then he got injured. Then we argued. Then we broke up. Then we got back together. Then he got hurt. Then we argued. Then we broke up. But you’re not here for the romance, you’re here for a rational analysis so let’s go. I think ET is a great selection that should be able to average somewhere in the high 40’s. I have a small concern that his minutes might be inflated by other people’s injuries but other than that he’s still a sound tackler and showed some decent ball playing ability last week. My other concerns is the Tigers byes aren’t as good as you think and if you’ve got a couple of Raiders in your backrow you are going to have some real issues in Round 15 and Round 19. I also don’t think Taylor will be a top level keeper. There’s currently 15 2RF that average over 50 and you probably don’t want to be overstocked with players that fall short of that. So if you have Cartwright, Fensom, Ma’u, Mooper etc do you really want to add another player who might not quite be good enough? Still he’s a great price. FOR REAL

Wednesday, 20 April 2016 10:00

Player Insight: Jake Friend

Jake Friend is the current captain for the Sydney Roosters, where he has played 170 odd games. He was born on February 1st, 1990, making him 26 years old. In the fantasy world he is considered to be the third best hooker available. Just behind rule number 1, CS9 and Farah.  

Trent Robinson has a tendency to run a backup hooker on the Roosters bench. This is the primary reason why Friend is considered to be the third best option at hooker. That has meant Friend has averaged 65 minutes and scoring between 45- 60 points per game. In recent times we have seen Friend move to an 80 minute role, which have seen a stark improvement in his output increasing his range to 60-70 per game.  However, will this be short lived?

Here's some of his key stats over the past three years:

Year

Games

Ave Points

Ave Mins

PPM

Base Ave

TCK Ave

TCK Per Min

2016

7

67.9

77.7

0.87

62.6

56

0.72

2015

20

52.1

55.8

0.76

49.0

43

0.77

2014

21

53.9

57.2

0.81

51.8

45

0.79

The increased minutes are certainly playing their part in Friend's improved performance, he's up over ten points a game BUT the minutes don't explain everything as his PPM is also up, despite the fact his base stats, primarily tackles, are coming at a slower rate then previous years. So his PPM is up but his base stats per minute are down, the reason for this is try assists. Friend already has six try assists this season after managing five in 2015 and six in 2014. With the Roosters losing a number of key playmakers Friend has had to pick up some slack, but with one of those playmakers back shortly it might not continue.

For all those who are wondering the main reason why Robinson is playing Friend as an 80 minute hooker at the present is because their only back up hooker Henderson has his leg snapped in half in round 3. The lack of depth has resulted in this anomaly.

The answer to this question has been on the mind of many coaches. It is the opinion held by many that his 80 minute stints will cease once we see the return of Cordner, JWH, and Pearce. It is believed that Nikorima, or Aubusson will start to eat into his minutes. This means for any prospective coaches eyeing Friend after his monster 107 points over the weekend, I would advise against it. This is because at most he has two weeks left as an 80 minute hooker, in which he should reach a mammoth price of $580k, only to start losing value immediately. We will see him move back down to sub $500k by no later than round 18.

So if you consider Friend to be a player you must have in your final 17 I would be holding off for a little longer, even if I am wrong, he has reached what is close to the ceiling for players in fantasy world and it seems very unlikely that Friend will be able to sustain his current average.

RNGD Eeyore out. 

Tuesday, 19 April 2016 10:00

Fluke or For Real: Ryan James

Ryan James and potential go together like Steve Matai and missed tackle. Over the past three years we’ve often seen glittering of this potential but in 2016 it appears to have legitimately metamorphosed into a very good rugby league player but does this make him a very good fantasy player?

Is Ryan James really a keeper you can build around? Fluke or For Real?

Glenn O'Callahan 

He was a great pod a couple of seasons back. But sadly I think fluke, there’s so many good options in 2RF. FLUKE

The Scarfie

He might be For Real but I'm not going to touch him. He is one of those players that suck you in with some boss scores only to burn you sooner rather than later. You need to ask yourself whether he has changed his ways or not? Has he finally got a haircut and a got real job? Keep in mind that Titans miss Round 12 and 18 as well. With the byes in mind I'm going to say a big no thank you. FLUKE

Tom Vaughan 

With Pettybourne injured in game and Bird not playing, James received 80mins in the middle of the field, which is unlikely to happen again this season. His other big scores have featured tries. FLUKE

Joshua Theeuf

Not every week will James be playing an 80 minute lock role. This week was simply because a bird flew the coop. The week he got his shitty score he missed three tackles and gave away one penalty and even if he didn’t he still would have only scored 38 which is what you should be expecting from R James. His inflated scores make it harder for people who hold him to trade, and far too tempting for those who don't to trade him in. Just don’t. At 55-60 minute prop there are better options like James Graham, Tolman, Bromwich and even Cooper. FLUKE

Thomas Mesaglio 

He's started the season off with a bang, however, he probably showed his true self in his 28 against the Sharks. Go all the way back to round 1 and he scored a similar 33 against the Knights. Although he's gone boom in between and again this week, I feel these scores are more indicative of a perfect storm of coincidences and opportunities presenting themselves to him: scoring rare tries, getting try saves, Greg Bird's inevitable suspension this week (coupled with in game injuries to boost his minutes), and racking up some huge tackle counts, including a monster 61 this week. All of these have served to skew his average a fair bit, and as the season progresses, he'll probably trend towards the lower end of the scale and average somewhere in the high 40s. FLUKE

Steve Nicholls

There’s a real risk that James’ best scores this season are already in the books. I love James playing in the middle of the field but his role seems to be constantly changing it can be hard to know what his role actually is. In his 45-65 minute games James has averaged 43 points in base stats and lost an average of four points a game in negative plays. That’s a pretty solid platform and means when he booms he really booms. I think James is going to end up doing the same sort of thing as Martin Taupau for fantasy purposes: he’ll boom, he’ll bust and he’ll finish up averaging somewhere around 50. With his lack of quality byes and current high price I think there are better options. FLUKE

Tuesday, 19 April 2016 10:00

Fluke or For Real: Tuimoala Lolohea

Tuimoala Lolohea was an interesting selection last week as a move to the halves aroused interest in many fantasy coaches. That move lasted about 17 minutes and now he’s likely to find himself the heir apparent to the injured Roger Tuivasa-Sheck.

Available as a CTR (and HLF) can Tui average 40? Fluke or For Real?

The Scarfie

Looking to get involved and will hopefully slot into the vacant FB position with RTS out the season. Should grab more running metres, bomb defusals and try saves. Looking forward to grabbing him for the rubbish Pat Mat.  FOR REAL

Dr Renegade

Got him last week. Available in the problematic CTR position. Now at fullback he should score good base stats and is talented enough to get great attacking stats too. FOR REAL

JWarrior

In the problematic centre position he will be a nice purchase. Playing at fullback he won’t score as highly as he would have at stand-off but he won’t be losing money either. Get him in now as he is as cheap as he will be, yet will finish the season as a reliable centre. FOR REAL

Glenn O’Callahan

CTR is shit house this year and Lolohea could be a big help. FOR REAL

Thomas Mesaglio 

Hopefully he slots in at FB again (so I can turf that useless RTS) and hits some big scores. Looked dynamic at the back, breaks tackles with ease with his fancy footwork, and has the opportunity to rack up some easy try assists when passing to the Warriors' powerful outside backs. Remember though, his points are essentially all attacking stats, but this is the same for any boom/bust fullback. Just don't be surprised if he has a quiet game or two when versing quality opponents. FOR REAL

Steve Nicholls

I always feel like I have to be the messenger of doom and gloom because the rest of the writers have a problem with unbridled optimism. Perhaps people are only looking for confirmation of a decision they’ve already made but I feel I am doing people a disservice if I don’t point out the risks involved with Lolohea. First Lolohea had 11 games at fullback last year and averaged 35. Last season in Lolohea’s 11 games at fullback he had a high of 72 and a low of 9 with a consistency score of 0.56 which represents a very inconsistent player. But that was last year you say, Lolohea looks like a much better player this year. He has looked good at times this season but people have also glossed over some of his bad games, he’s cheap because he has scores of 16, 11 and 18 to his credit. His average on the wing this season is actually worse than his average on the wing last year. He also has useless bye weeks. If you are in the position of having to make a move you could consider Tui, he’s more than likely undervalued but people seem to have visions of his overtime try running through their head like he’s 2012 Ben Barba. He’s not. And he's definitely not unanimous for real. FLUKE 

Thursday, 14 April 2016 10:00

Fluke or For Real: Kerrod Holland

Last week we looked at one cheap centre with good byes coming off a decent score. This week we’ll look at another. Is Kerrod Holland worth a trade this week?

Eddy Durham

Ideally you would have him already obviously but if you don't I think it’s still worth it. He should cover Morris on the byes, Hoppa isn’t playing Sundays I believe? And plus he looks the goods and may end up pushing someone like Stanley out of the team. Besides what better cheapies are out there? FOR REAL

The Hotshot

In his first game, he did nothing and scored a very respectable 37 points. With the likelihood of covering Morris and Hopoate before and over the Origin period, he'll get plenty more opportunity to make money and score decent points. You should have bought him last week but he's still worth a purchase. FOR REAL

Glenn O’Callahan

Buy buy buy. Don't worry about missing him last week, worry about not getting him this week. FOR REAL

JWarrior

He is a mirage, for one trade in and one trade out you will get a guaranteed two weeks so let’s say he makes $80k. It’s not worth it. Yes Hopoate will miss some games but last I checked Holland is a centre it is more likely that Brad Abbey will get his shot. Ok so I don't have him and I am wishing this and many other bad things on him. FLUKE

Dr Renegade

Next week will be too late. FOR REAL

The Defensive Centre

You need to start building depth coming into the byes. In the best case, Holland keeps Stanley out. In the worst, he plays the next couple of weeks and then comes in over Origin when Morris is out. He also has the chance of playing in the backline when Hopoate is out for Sunday games. He's obviously got a first grade temperament, which the coach can see giving him the kicking tee on debut. Get him in now. FOR REAL

Josh Theeuf

Unable to tell; but I’ll lean to real. I do not expect him to keep Stanley out, 2nd tier salary cap etc, but at the same stage he should make some decent coin and potentially offer some cover in the bye rounds. Purchase now or forever hold your peace. FOR REAL

Steve Nicholls

I think he looks like a very solid fantasy player that makes tackles and breaks tackles. Exactly what you want in a CTR. Just don’t downplay the risk associated with getting a $188k player with no job certainty. He will play this weekend and that will make you between $28-40k if he scores between 25-40. He will probably play Round 12 and Round 18 with Josh Morris playing Origin but you know how long this season has felt? Double it and that is Round 12, triple it and you have Round 18. Can you even imagine that far away? He might play in Round 10 and Round 11 when Will Hopoate sits Sundays out but the Bulldogs have other options too. There is a chance he replaces Chase Stanley in the line-up fulltime but only a small chance. If you were just to factor in playing this week and the two byes then his upside is 50-80 points in Origin and $70-120k of price increases. When I weigh all these factors up I think this is a bad trade and you might be better off forgoing a price rise to mitigate some of these risks and get him later on if he still looks like a solid bye round play. FLUKE

Wednesday, 13 April 2016 10:00

Dr Renegade: Rocco and Rochow

The most important injury of the weekend looked like it was going to be the most tragic event ever seen on a football field, but little Rocco Heighington came through with not much more than a scratch. Even though there were no long term injuries, it will still be at least a 17 year lay off until we will be able to pick him in your side. I’m tipping him to make it too. Not as a chunky frf/2rf like his dad, but as a fleet footed wing/three quarter. Mainly because his dad has stumbled upon a training tool that will certainly get him running quickly. At least it proved one thing, Andrew Fifita’s arm injury was not as serious as it first looked, with the big fella running in to assist lifting the buggy off young Rocco.

Fifita being named helps the huge number of teams that have him, and with “The Has Been” insisting on keeping him as captain, along with many others, it is a great relief to see him named. Tyrone Roberts still has not been named with his bone bruising on his knee, meaning Cameron Cullen gets another game and played really well last week, which means he looms as a potential replacement for Cody Walker owners.

Robbie Rochow broke his arm at training during last week. The break was adjacent to the plate from his last repair, which happens more often than you would imagine. The problem with this is that the old plate needs to be removed and there is no possible way to re-plate these injuries. This means that the old fashioned plaster and time are the only intervention, with at least 10 weeks out in his case.

Sio Siua Taukeiaho injured his knee in an awkward looking tackle, with a medial ligament injury diagnosed. Similar to Michael Lichaa’s injury, this should keep him out for that equally awkward time frame of 4 weeks. If you have him, and I think it is only JK that does, he’s a hold with not many others around that price range giving much more. A bye friendly player could be a great option though. Ma’u would be my choice, as long as he is not suspended long term for shanking someone mid game.

Aaron Woods also picked up an ankle injury that will keep him out for at least 4 weeks. Combined with his Origin selection (possible) and byes, he’s a trade out almost certainly. Again, a bye friendly player in would be gold if possible. Jack De Belin looms if you have the cash. The issue Woods may have is that Origin selection is just around the corner, will he be back in time to force his selection? Or will Daley insist on him even with reduced match fitness?

Players getting out of sick bay this week include Adam Reynolds, causing potential cash cow of the year Cody Walker to be dropped, with Rabbits continuing with Keary in the halves. I could hear JK sobbing from my place when team lists came out. Even though still listed as an injury by NRL, Tautau Moga is making a comeback via reserve grade in Townsville, and Kane Linnett may be a late inclusion, making Javid Bowen’s job security lower than the nickel refinery workers in that great city (a cool 1000 of them lost their jobs up there last month).

Fantasy irrelevant Benji Marshall is back, dumping the equally irrelevant Josh McCrone. Benji just needs to concentrate on his improving commentary and media game so he has a job from next year.

Watch out for an upcoming article about concussion and why it is the massive problem in any contact sport and as always, have a look at the pick, stick and rage and Q&A with The Renegade articles for some great trade advice. Check out Fantasy Fallout. These guys are the guns for that advice. Trust me, I’m your doctor.

Current Sick Bay

Broncos: -

Raiders: Jeff Lima (hand, Round 11), Sia Soliola (broken arm, Round 12)

Bulldogs: Brett Morris (knee, late season), Chase Stanley (hamstring, Round 8)

Sharks: Andrew Fifita (arm, TBC)

Titans: Kane Elgey (ACL, season), Nathaniel Peteru (knee, Round 7), Nathan Davis (shoulder, Round 6), Matt Srama (knee, season), David Hala (elbow, Round 7), Tyrone Roberts (knee, Round 7)

Sea Eagles: Jayden Hodges (ACL, season), Jamie Buhrer (thumb, Round 9), Daly Cherry-Evans (ankle, Round 9), Tim Moltzen (ankle, Round 9), Isaac John (pec, season)

Storm: Matt White (calf, indefinite), Billy Slater (shoulder, season), Curtis Scott (leg, Round 11), Jeremy Hawkins (indefinite), Cheyse Blair (indefinite)

Knights: James McManus (concussion, season), Chanel Mata'utia (knee, Round 8), David Bhana (ankle, Round 10), Jake Mamo (ankle, indefinite), Kade Snowden (various, Round 7), Robbie Rochow (arm, Round 13-16)

Cowboys: Ray Thompson (ankle, Round 10), Tautau Moga (ACL, indefinite), Kane Linnett (shoulder, Round 7-9)

Eels: Anthony Watmough (knee, indefinite), Tim Mannah (shoulder, Round 8), Luke Kelly (ACL, season)

Panthers: James Segeyaro (broken arm, Round 7), Dean Whare (calf, Round 7)

Rabbitohs: John Sutton (pec, Round 17), Zane Musgrove (wrist, indefinite), Alex Johnston (hamstring, indefinite)

Dragons: Mose Masoe (ACL, indefinite), Dylan Farrell (back, indefinite), Ben Creagh (knee, indefinite), Yaw Kiti Glymin (hamstring, indefinite)

Roosters: Boyd Cordner (pectoral, Round 8), Jared Waerea-Hargreaves (knee, Round 9), Mitchell Pearce (stood down, Round 9), Vincent Leuluai (knee, Round 10), Dale Copley (pectoral, Round 19), Ian Henderson (leg, indefinite), Sio Siua Taukeiaho (knee, Round 11-13)

Warriors: Ligi Sao (shoulder, Round 7), Ben Henry (knee, indefinite), Nathaniel Roache (ankle, indefinite), Manu Vatuvei (hamstring, indefinite)

Wests Tigers: Matt Ballin (knee, Round 10), Justin Hunt (back, Round 7), Aaron Woods (ankle, Round 11-13)

Wednesday, 13 April 2016 10:00

Late Mail Busters: Round 6

Round 6 of the NRL has been and gone, and so has another week of Late Mail. From buzz around a possible return for Adam Reynolds, to Channel Seven Sydney reporting James Tedesco was “in doubt”, which sent many a Fantasy coach to the top of the nearest tall building, there was plenty happening.

But how did the three sources - favourites of Fantasy players, tipsters, gamblers, and NRL addicts - do? Let’s take a look.

Game 1: Broncos v Dragons

Benji Marshall was a late withdrawal for the Dragons team, with Josh McCrone replacing him. Dunamis Lui was also added to the bench, with Siliva Havili not required.

NRL Late Mail: Does not publish until Friday.

News Ltd Late Mail: Reported James Roberts and Jarrod Wallace as likely to play, with both being in doubt but passing fitness tests.

Wackos Whispers: Also reported the fitness of Roberts and Wallace. Suggested a possible change of Havili and McCrone, but cancelled that out by saying the Dragons were most likely to be 1-17.

Game 2: Rabbitohs v Roosters

Despite some reports Adam Reynolds would be returning, the only change to the Rabbitohs team was Dave Tyrell dropping off the bench, with Paul Carter replacing him. For the Roosters, they performed their now common switch of Aidan Guerra to five eighth, Sio Siua Taukeiaho from lock to second row, Isaac Liu from the bench to lock, and Jayden Nikorima dropping to the bench. They also dropped Mitchell Frei from the bench, adding Abraham Papalii.

NRL Late Mail: Reported Reynolds as unlikely to be a late addition. Also reported Nikorima dropping to the bench, with Liu starting, but did not outline the reshuffle.

News Ltd Late Mail: Similar report to NRL Late Mail.

Wacko’s Whispers: Reported George Burgess and Bryson Goodwin as most likely to miss the game. Reported Dave Tyrell would start the game, with Paul Carter added to the bench. Reported Michael Oldfield as a direct swap for Goodwin. Listed Reynolds as unlikely to return. Reported the positional switch involving Nikorima, Guerra, Taukeiaho, and Liu accurately.

Game 3: Eels v Raiders

The only change for either side here was for the Raiders. Paul Vaughan moved from the bench to the starting lineup, with Shannon Boyd dropping back to the bench.

NRL Late Mail:  Reported no team changes likely for either team.

News Ltd Late Mail: Also reported no changes likely.

Wacko’s Whispers: Also reported no changes likely.

Game 4: Warriors v Sea Eagles

Thomas Leuluai’s return from a long injury layoff meant Jazz Tevaga dropped off the bench for the Warriors. Darcy Lussick started in the front row for the Sea Eagles, with Josh Starling dropping to the bench.

NRL Late Mail: Reported Tevaga as most likely to make way for Leuluai. Reported Jake Trbojevic as overcoming his injury, and being right to play.

News Ltd Late Mail: Similar report to NRL Late Mail. Also confirmed Tom Symonds would be fit.

Wacko’s Whispers: Reported the Leuluai/Tevaga swap. Also suggested Bodene Thompson may come into the Warriors team, with Konrad Hurrell to drop out. Confirmed the fitness of Trbojevic and Symonds, but reported Starling as in doubt, with either Blake Leary or Luke Burgess to replace him.

Game 5: Panthers v Cowboys

Tyrone Peachey dropped off the bench for the Panthers, with Jeremy Latimore. The Cowboys performed their usual switch of Rory Kostjasyn and Jake Granville. Come on Cowboys. Surely you can afford the right jumper for these guys!!

NRL Late Mail: Reported no expected changes.

News Ltd Late Mail: Reported the Kostjasyn/Granville swap.

Wacko’s Whispers: Reported Latimore as a likely addition to the Panthers bench, but reported Suaia Matagi or James Fisher-Harris as the player most likely to make way. Also covered the Kostjasyn/Granville switch.

Game 6: Sharks v Titans

The Sharks performed their usual change of Sam Tagataese dropping to the bench, with Matt Prior starting the match. Jason Bukuya was also left off the bench, with Gerard Beale added. For the Titans, Will Zillman made his return, with David Mead shifting from fullback to wing, Nene MacDonald moving from wing to centre, and John Olive dropping out of the team.

NRL Late Mail: Reported Zillman as likely to return, but as a direct replacement for John Olive in the centres. David Shillington was to be given as much time as possible, but still likely.

News Ltd Late Mail: Also reported Zillman as coming into the team, and correctly nominated the backline reshuffle. Also reported Shillington as likely.

Wacko’s Whispers: Reported the interchange of Prior and Tagataese. Also correctly reported the Zillman return and backline realignment. Did report Shillington as unlikely, with Agnatius Paasi or Luke Douglas to start, and Eddy Pettybourne to be added to the Titans bench.

Game 7: Knights v Tigers

The Knights suffered a few withdrawals due to injuries of varying severity. Robbie Rochow is out long term with a broken arm. Sione Mata’utia failed to clear concussion protocols. Danny Levi failed a late fitness test. Jaelen Feeney started in the centres, with Tyler Randell and Pauli Pauli elevated from the bench to the starting side at hooker and second row respectively. Daniel Saifiti and Will Pearsall were added to the Knights bench. For the Tigers, Tim Simona failed in his trip to the judiciary, and his spot was taken by Nathan Milone.  

NRL Late Mail: Reported Rochow as out, with Korbin Sims to shift from prop to second row, and Jack Stockwell to start. Reported Daniel Saifiti as being added to the bench. Also reported Mata’utia as unlikely, with Feeney as the replacement. Nominated Milone, Chris Lawrence, Dene Halatau, or Kyle Lovett all as possible replacements for Simona in the Tigers lineup. If Lawrence or Halatau were to play there, Curtis Sironen would be starting, and Michael Chee-Kam would join the bench.

News Ltd Late Mail: Reported the forced changes at the Knights the same as NRL Late Mail, and also added that Levi had not yet proved his fitness. Nominated Milone, Chee-Kam, and Watson Heleta as possible replacements for Simona.

Wacko’s Whispers: Reported Rochow, Mata’utia, and Levi as out. Reported Feeney and Randell as in, as well as Korbin Sims shifting to second row, with Stockwell starting at prop. Reported the bench additions as Daniel Saifiti and Mickey Paea. Reported Milone as Simona’s replacement.

Game 8: Storm v Bulldogs

A few pre-kickoff changes for the Storm to close out the round. Tohu Harris was shifted from centre to second row, with Kenny Bromwich dropping to the bench, and Ben Hampton starting in the centres. Christian Welch was replaced on the bench by Nelson Asofa-Solomona.

NRL Late Mail: Reported no changes expected.

News Ltd Late Mail: Also reported no changes likely.

Wacko’s Whispers: Reported Jeremy Hawkins as likely to start at centre, with Harris pushing to second row, Bromwich to the bench, and Hampton out of the squad.

The Season Scores:

NRL Late Mail

He’s Out Of Here: 29.1% (16 from 55)

There’s A Feeling: 85.7% (12 from 14)

Plans May Change: 77.8% (7 from 9)

Nothing To See Here: 100% (2 from 2)

Musical Chairs: 10.3% (12 from 116)

The Replacements: 31.1% (23 from 74)

OVERALL: 26.7% (72 from 270)

OVERALL WITHOUT MUSICAL CHAIRS: 39.0% (60 from 154)

News Ltd Late Mail

He’s Out Of Here: 27.7% (18 from 65)

There’s A Feeling: 75.0% (12 from 16)

Plans May Change: 72.7% (8 from 11)

Nothing To See Here: 100% (5 from 5)

Musical Chairs: 8.6% (20 from 118)

The Replacements: 33.7% (29 from 86)

OVERALL: 30.6% (92 from 301)

OVERALL WITHOUT MUSICAL CHAIRS: 39.3% (72 from 183)

Wacko’s Whispers

He’s Out Of Here: 29.3% (22 from 75)

There’s A Feeling: 25.9% (7 from 27)

Plans May Change: 60.0% (7 from 11)

Nothing To See Here: 100.0% (6 out of 6)

Musical Chairs: 25.2% (36 from 143)

The Replacements: 32.7% (32 from 98)

OVERALL: 30.6% (110 from 360)

OVERALL WITHOUT MUSICAL CHAIRS: 32.4% (74 from 217)

A second week of overall increases in accuracy gives us reason to hope. Maybe, like an NRL team, the Late Mail sites just needed to settle down and work into the season. There are also patterns emerging. Wacko’s Whispers is clearly superior in the Musical Chairs category. At a strike rate of 1 in 4, it’s still not confidence filling though. Even with this dominant category, Wacko’s is only tied with News Limited Late Mail for overall honours. This is because Wacko’s is not as accurate at reporting players who will miss games.

So, Late Mail is improving, but it’s still risky business. As always, the only real source is the NRL Team List released one hour before kickoff. Of course, sometimes the player is involved in a game late in the round, and it is hard to adjust your Fantasy team. This is sadly unavoidable, but there are plenty of great tips about setting your lineup on the Renegades site, Facebook page, and Fantasy Prospectus. This can at least help minimise the damage that trusting some bad Late Mail can do.

That’s Late Mail busted for Round 6, see you for Round 7.

Gio

Wednesday, 06 April 2016 10:00

Late Mail Busters – Round 5

Round 5 of NRL action has been and gone. It marks an interesting time for Late Mail Busters. Many a Fantasy player is still wearing the scars of the high injury toll from the early rounds. An adaptable bunch, they’ve brought in cheap cash cows, who are churning along nicely both in real NRL and Fantasy. But the imminent return of some of the injured casts a shadow over these players. To add to it all, NRL coaches are cagey sods, and like to hold a return as close to their chest as possible.

This has already started to happen, once again causing a few tactical gymnastics from Fantasy players. It will be interesting to see what Round 6 brings, but for now, let’s look at the late team changes, and the accuracy of the Late Mail from Round 5.

Game 1: Sea Eagles v Rabbitohs

For the Sea Eagles, Jake Trbojevic was a withdrawal, with Darcy Lussick moving from the bench to lock, and Blake Leary was added to the bench. The Rabbitohs has Bryson Goodwin drop out with injury, with Kirisome Auva’a moving from wing to centre, and Michael Oldfield coming onto the wing.

NRL Late Mail: Does not publish until Friday.

News Ltd Late Mail: Reported Trbojevic as being out. Also suggested Steve Matai and Dylan Walker as being in doubt, with Matai likely to drop out, and Walker likely to play. Did not nominate any replacements though. They also reported that Oldfield would come onto the wing, with Auva’a taking Goodwin’s centre spot.

Wackos Whispers: An updated report listed Trbojevic, Walker, and Matai as in doubt. Also reported the team change to the Rabbitohs.

Game 2: Titans v Broncos

Tyrone Roberts was a withdrawal, which led to a reshuffle for the Titans. Greg Bird moved from lock to five eighth, Agnatius Paasi moved from the bench to lock, and Eddy Pettybourne came onto the bench. Then David Shillington was the latest of late withdrawals, injuring himself in the warm up. Luke Douglas moved to starting prop, and Lachlan Burr was added to the bench. Late Mail Busters knows that emergency players are part of the squad warming up, but thinks its funnier to imagine Burr was just enjoying a hot dog in the stands and Neil Henry threw him a jumper. No late changes for the Broncos.

NRL Late Mail: Reported Roberts as out, with Cameron Cullen as a possible direct replacement. Also suggested Bird may shift, with Pettybourne joining the squad, but no mention as to who would play lock.

News Ltd Late Mail: Reported a similar scenario regarding the withdrawal of Roberts. Also reported Will Zillman as training but unlikely.

Wacko’s Whispers: Only reported Cullen as the likely replacement for Roberts. Also reported Zillman as a likely late inclusion.

Game 3: Storm v Knights

A few changes here. For the Storm, Marika Koroibete was suspended, with Richie Kennar coming into the team on the wing. Ben Hampton was relegated to the bench, Tohu Harris moved from second row to centre, and Felise Kaufusi came into the second row. Christian Welch made way for Nelson Asofa-Solomona on the bench as well. For the Knights, Akuila Uate returned from injury, replacing Corey Denniss. Danny Levi started and Tyler Randall dropped to the bench, and Jack Stockwell was brought onto the bench for Lachlan Fitzgibbon.

NRL Late Mail:  Reported the suspension of Koroibete, and mentioned Harris as likely to move to the backline, but no other changes were reported for the Storm. Reported Uate and Daniel Saifiti as likely to come into the 17 for the Knights. Also mentioned Stockwell as likely to return, with Dennis and Fitzgibbon as likely to drop out.

News Ltd Late Mail: Also made the same vague report about the Storm reshuffling due to Koroibete’s suspension. Also reported Kevin Proctor as unlikely. Listed Uate, Saifiti, Stockwell and Will Pearsall as likely to come into the squad for the Knights, although no mention as to likely replacements.

Wacko’s Whispers: Reported Kennar as Koroibete’s likely replacement. Also reported Harris switching to centres, and Hampton dropping to the bench, but nominated Kenny Bromwich as the likely starter from to be promoted from the bench.  Also reported Uate as likely to come in for Denniss, and that Jarrod Mullen was likely to be replaced by Pearsall due to injury, and that Daniel Saifiti was unlikely.

Game 4: Tigers v Sharks

Tigers were as listed on Team List Tuesday. Sharks had some shuffling in the squad. Paul Gallen started the game on the bench, with Jason Bukuya starting. The Sharks also performed their usual switch of Sam Tagataese and Matt Prior between bench and starting roles.

NRL Late Mail: Reported no expected changes.

News Ltd Late Mail: Also reported no changes.

Wacko’s Whispers: Suggested Tim Grant was unlikely due to concussion. Ava Seumanufagai or Josh Aloiai would start, and Rod Griffin would come onto the bench. Also suggested Jason Taylor would repeat his little stunt of Robbie Farah back to the bench, with Dene Halatau to start at hooker, and Kyle Lovett would start in the second row. Did suggest the Tagataese/Prior swap for the Sharks.

Game 5: Cowboys v Dragons

The only change was another regular switch of Rory Kostjasyn and Jake Granville between starting hooker and the bench.

NRL Late Mail: Reported no expected changes.

News Ltd Late Mail: Reported the Kostjasyn/Granville “switcheroo”, as they phrased it.

Wacko’s Whispers: Also reported the Kostjasyn/Granville swap. Also mentioned Euan Aitken as in doubt but likely to play for the dragons.

Game 6: Roosters v Warriors

The Roosters performed the same late move as last week, benching Jayden Nikorima. Aidan Guerra shifted to five eighth, Sio Siua Taukeiaho, moving from lock to second row, and Isaac Liu starting at lock. No late changes for the Warriors.

NRL Late Mail: Reported Nikorima’s benching and Guerra starting at five eighth, although no mention of the reshuffle. Bodene Thompson was unlikely to be a late inclusion.

News Ltd Late Mail: Similar report to NRL Late mail.

Wacko’s Whispers: Correctly listed the Nikorima/Guerra/Taukeiaho/Liu interchange of positions. Also expected Solomone Kata to be ruled out, with Konrad Hurrell to start at centre, and Bodene Thompson to come onto the bench.

Game 7: Eels v Panthers

Both teams had one change. For the Eels, Tim Mannah withdrew due to injury, with David Gower coming into the team in his spot. For the Panthers, Jeremy Latimore came onto the bench in place Suaia Matagi.

NRL Late Mail: Reported Mannah as out, with Danny Wicks to replace him in the starting lineup. Reported Bryce Cartwright as a starter despite the thumb injury picked up the week prior.

News Ltd Late Mail: Also reported Mannah as out, with Wicks to replace him, and Peni Terepo to be added to bench. Considering he was already there, I’m not sure what that’s about. Also confirmed Cartwright was playing.

Wacko’s Whispers: Reported Mannah as out, with Wicks or Terepo to start, and Gower to be added to the bench. Also said Nathan Peats was going to return from injury, with Isaac De Gois to drop out of the team. Listed Cartwright as a definite starter.

Game 8: Bulldogs v Raiders

In the biggest news for Fantasy coaches, Michael Lichaa returned from injury at the expense of Craig Garvey in the only change for the Bulldogs team. For the Raiders, Paul Vaughan was elevated from the bench to the starting lineup, switching with Shannon Boyd.

NRL Late Mail: Reported Lichaa as likely to return at the expense of Garvey. No changes expected for the Raiders.

News Ltd Late Mail: Similar report to NRL Late Mail.

Wacko’s Whispers: Reported the Lichaa/Garvey change, and also suggested Tony Williams may not clear concussion protocols.

The Season Scores

NRL Late Mail

He’s Out Of Here: 28.3% (13 from 46)

There’s A Feeling: 83.3% (10 from 12)

Plans May Change: 71.4% (5 from 7)

Nothing To See Here: 100% (1 from 1)

Musical Chairs: 11.0% (10 from 91)

The Replacements: 28.6% (18 from 63)

OVERALL: 25.9% (57 from 220)

OVERALL WITHOUT MUSICAL CHAIRS: 36.4% (47 from 129)

News Ltd Late Mail

He’s Out Of Here: 27.3% (15 from 55)

There’s A Feeling: 69.2% (9 from 13)

Plans May Change: 66.7% (6 from 9)

Nothing To See Here: 100% (1 from 1)

Musical Chairs: 8.6% (14 from 103)

The Replacements: 35.1% (24 from 72)

OVERALL: 27.3% (69 from 253)

OVERALL WITHOUT MUSICAL CHAIRS: 36.7% (55 from 150)

Wacko’s Whispers

He’s Out Of Here: 27.6% (16 from 58)

There’s A Feeling: 28.0% (7 from 25)

Plans May Change: 60.0% (7 from 11)

Nothing To See Here: 100.0% (2 out of 2)

Musical Chairs: 19.3% (23 from 119)

The Replacements: 31.3% (25 from 80)

OVERALL: 27.1% (80 from 295)

OVERALL WITHOUT MUSICAL CHAIRS: 32.4% (57 from 176)

All of the Late Mail sources improved their scores this week. Wacko’s Whispers does have a much higher score in the Musical Chairs category, but it is all relative. You can say they are right about movement within the 17 twice as often as the News Limited Late Mail, or you can say they’re right just under 1 in every 5. Both are accurate, but the second version reveals the big picture. Without the Musical Chairs category, NRL and News Limited Late Mail are neck and neck, a few percentage points ahead of Wacko’s Whispers.

In closing this week, Late Mail Busters again provides a word of caution before you discover a “scoop” and decide to share it. While lurking in the NRL Fantasy Renegades Facebook group, I noticed a post of Wacko’s report about Nathan Peats returning. Remember, they are right sometimes, but more often they’re wrong, so careful…..

See you for Round 6

Gio

                                             

Wednesday, 06 April 2016 10:00

Dr Renegade: Soli! Come out here Soli!

A few massive surprises on the injury front this week. The most amazing event has occurred! The Sharks have no first grade players injured at present. In what can only be described as a complete and utter magic show, neither Paul Gallen nor Andrew Fifita are injured. Even Luke Lewis is in good health. Ben Barba is running like it is 2012, and they have both first choice halves on the field at the same time. Can it get any better for Sharks fans? Well………..I guess they could actually have a trophy cabinet instead of a dustbin, but, baby steps. It is enough to turn Gibbsy and his Rooster mates green with envy!

A few in here had Green Machine engine room man Sia Soliola as a bit of a sneaky POD. He was doing his job admirably, both for the Raiders and Fantasy, with some really good scores and some great base stats. He too has been snapped. Unlucky for his owners, but this may just present a couple of opportunities for trade outs looking forward to good bye coverage.

His forearm fracture was a particularly nasty one, with rapid open reduction and internal fixation required. This surgery is reasonably invasive and would keep any one of us clutching our mummy’s hand and crying in the post-operative phase. I would stay away from all sport for at least 6 months, but Soliola will probably be back in 8 weeks. This gives us a good look at Bateman, Tapine, and Fensom’s minutes. Who will be the big winner here? Bateman at base price is tempting, but my money is on Fensom increasing his minutes for perfect gun status running up to the first major bye round.

Chase Stanley broke down again. Has anyone seen his mum heading back to IKEA with two rather large packages in her hands with that frustrated look of all flat pack haters? She must really be thinking about putting them back on the shelf. These two Stanley brothers must be the perfect horrible combination of the worst luck and most talent that I have ever seen in thirty years of watching Rugby League. Good luck to him and his brother Kyle. I hope one of them fulfils their promise. Holland has replaced him, and is a dead set buy looking at cash cow options and the red dot city that is my CTR reserves.

Tim Mannah finally broke his shoulder after carrying the Eels forward pack for the last 5 years. I guess it had to happen sooner or later. It has occurred at the best time in the club’s history though, as they are really well served with hard working and hard-nosed forwards. It has even caused resident has-been, Longy, to be seen skipping down the hallways at school, instead of running head long into corner posts for fun. Alvaro is an interesting selection and may be a good cash out for some underperforming hack in your FRF.

Sione Mata'utia was knocked senseless in an otherwise uneventful game, and is having some trouble regaining anything more than his baby food. Feeney has been training at CTR, giving all of his owners (yours truly included) even more false hope that he will be more than a mere ghost cow. Keep an eye out for team lists prior to the game to see if he’s a chance of further disappointing us. Another major ghost cow risk is that of Javid Bowen; he scored really well last week in his first game, but whispers from Cowboys inside man Angus is that Linnett has recovered really well and will be back next week. So two games may be all she wrote.

Returns this week include bye rounds necessity Nathan Peats, who has Isaac De Gois on the bench stealing his minutes this week; hopefully this will be rectified in the next few weeks so he can go back to being my bye rounds captain. Adam Reynolds could be a surprise inclusion on Friday night - his soup diet must be over. The best thing about a jaw fracture is that it doesn’t affect the ability to do the right amount of cardio work in the rehab squad, so his fitness will be no problems unlike Lichaa, who played a decent game on Monday night without scoring large numbers. He will be much better for that run, and I expect him to smash out some great scores when his fitness returns.

Big feet-for-hands Manu Vatuvei (Warriors) and Alex Johnston (Rabbitos) have minor hamstring strains and will be out this week, causing a few reshuffles in their teams. Don’t expect major time in the side for their replacements: Auva’a in the centres may be short lived, so buyer beware.

Watch out for an upcoming article about concussion and why it is a massive problem in any contact sport and, as always, have a look at the pick, stick and rage and Q&A with The Renegade articles for some great trade advice. Check out Fantasy Fallout with the famous JZ and some strange dude called Chris. These guys are the guns for that advice. Trust me, I’m your doctor.

Current Sick Bay

Broncos: -

Raiders: Jeff Lima (hand, Round 11), Sia Soliola (broken arm, Round 12)

Bulldogs: Brett Morris (knee, late season), Chase Stanley (hamstring, Round 8)

Sharks: -

Titans: Kane Elgey (ACL, season), Nathaniel Peteru (knee, Round 7), Nathan Davis (shoulder, Round 6), Matt Srama (knee, season), David Hala (elbow, Round 7), Tyrone Roberts (knee, Round 7)

Sea Eagles: Jayden Hodges (ACL, season), Jamie Buhrer (thumb, Round 9), Daly Cherry-Evans (ankle, Round 9)

Storm: Matt White (calf, indefinite), Billy Slater (shoulder, season), Curtis Scott (leg, Round 11), Jeremy Hawkins (indefinite), Cheyse Blair (indefinite)

Knights: James McManus (concussion, season), Chanel Mata'utia (knee, Round 8), David Bhana (ankle, Round 10), Jake Mamo (ankle, indefinite), Kade Snowden (various, Round 7)

Cowboys: Ray Thompson (ankle, Round 10), Tautau Moga (ACL, indefinite), Kane Linnett (shoulder, Round 7-9)

Eels: Anthony Watmough (knee, indefinite), Tim Mannah (shoulder, Round 8)

Panthers: James Segeyaro (broken arm, Round 7), Dean Whare (calf, Round 7)

Rabbitohs: Adam Reynolds (jaw, Round 7-8), John Sutton (pec, Round 17), Zane Musgrove (wrist, indefinite), Alex Johnston (hamstring, indefinite)

Dragons: Mose Masoe (ACL, indefinite), Dylan Farrell (back, indefinite), Ben Creagh (knee, indefinite), Yaw Kiti Glymin (hamstring, indefinite)

Roosters: Boyd Cordner (pectoral, Round 8), Jared Waerea-Hargreaves (knee, Round 9), Mitchell Pearce (stood down, Round 9), Vincent Leuluai (knee, Round 10), Dale Copley (pectoral, Round 19), Ian Henderson (leg, indefinite)

Warriors: Ligi Sao (shoulder, Round 7), Ben Henry (knee, indefinite), Nathaniel Roache (ankle, indefinite), Bodene Thompson (ribs, indefinite), Manu Vatuvei (hamstring, indefinite)

Wests Tigers: Matt Ballin (knee, Round 10), Justin Hunt (back, Round 7)

Dr Renegade

Thursday, 31 March 2016 11:00

Late Mail Busters – Round 4

Team lists named with players facing the judiciary meant Late Mail Busters was going to have a busy Round 4. Plenty of speculation about injured players coming back, concussion protocols, and an Easter miracle involving Sam Burgess saw just about anyone with a keyboard having a go at possible team changes.

Before we get stuck into the Round 4 games, make sure you read on until the end. The wrap up will contain a tale of woe from a Fantasy player, and the perils of dancing with the Late Mail.

Let’s get into last week’s matches.

 

Game 1: Rabbitohs v Bulldogs

Sam Burgess was not named, but there was a ton of speculation he’d be able to make the team. There was no Easter miracle for Sam, Bunnies fans, and Fantasy owners though, and he’ll be back for Round 5. The only change to the listed teams was Michael Oldfield replacing an injured Alex Johnston on the wing for Souths.

NRL Late Mail: Reported Burgess as most likely not playing. No other changes listed.

News Ltd Late Mail: Same report as NRL Late Mail

Wackos Whispers: Reported Burgess as a definite non-starter.

 

Game 2: Broncos v Cowboys

Only change to the team lists was Paul Green’s normal switch of Rory Kostjasyn and Jake Granville between the bench and starting position. Granville was subject to NRL’s concussion protocol, so there was some doubt over him.

NRL Late Mail: Reported no team changes, with Granville most likely playing.

News Ltd Late Mail: Same report as NRL Late Mail.

Wacko’s Whispers: Reported Granville as most likely to miss the match, with Rory Kostjasyn to start, and Josh Chudleigh to come onto the bench.

 

Game 3: Raiders v Titans.

Changes for this game involved the Titans. Nathan Friend missed the game with concussion, with Daniel Mortimer starting at hooker, and Kierran Moseley coming onto the bench. Greg Bird and David Shillington had to clear concussion protocols for Gold Coast, and were successful.

NRL Late Mail:  Reported Friend as out, with Moseley coming into the team. Did not speculate on team formation.

News Ltd Late Mail: Reported the change with Mortimer to hooker and Moseley coming onto the bench due to Friend’s withdrawal. Also reported Bird was likely to pass concussion protocols.

Wacko’s Whispers: Did not mention Friend’s withdrawal, but did note both Shillington and Bird would be passed fit.

 

Game 4: Roosters v Sea Eagles

Changes to both teams here. For the Roosters, Jayden Nikorima was dropped to the bench. Aidan Guerra was shifted from second row to five eighth, Sio Siua Taukeiaho from lock to second row, and Isaac Liu came into the starting lineup. The Sea Eagles named Martin Taupau and Brenton Lawrence (who were suspended), Steve Matai was an injury withdrawal, and Tom Symonds was left out. Lewis Brown started at centre with Feleti Mateo and Jamie Buhrer starting in the second row. Blake Leary, Luke Burgess, and Darcy Lussick were added to the bench.

NRL Late Mail: Reported the suspensions of Taupau and Lawrence, with Buhrer and Lussick nominated as replacements.

News Ltd Late Mail: Same report as NRL Late Mail.

Wacko’s Whispers: Also reported the same changes, and mentioned Leary as coming into the squad as well.

 

Game 5: Dragons v Panthers

For the Dragons, Ben Creagh was a withdrawal, with Jake Marketo added to the bench for the Dragons. Elijah Taylor was dropped from the bench, with James Fisher-Harris coming onto the Penrith bench.

NRL Late Mail: Reported Benji Marshall as a likely late inclusion for Josh McCrone for the Dragons. Also suggested Matt Moylan could return from injury as well.

News Ltd Late Mail: Same report as NRL Late Mail.

Wacko’s Whispers: Also reported the Marshall/McCrone swap for the Dragons, as well as Mike Cooper and Jack De Belin switching between starting and the interchange bench. Suggested Moylan was unlikely to play for the Panthers.

 

Game 6: Warriors v Knights

For the Warriors, Bodene Thompson was a withdrawal, and Jonathan Wright was left out. Manu Vatuvei and Isaac Luke were late inclusions. Simon Mannering’s move from lock to second row displeased many a fantasy coach, with Albert Vete starting at lock. Jazz Tevaga dropped to the bench. For the Knights, Sione Mata’utia was suspended, with Cory Denniss moving to centre, and Jake Mamo coming onto the wing. Tyler Randell was dropped to the bench, with Danny Levi starting hooker.

NRL Late Mail: Reported Akuila Uate as the replacement for Mata’utia.

News Ltd Late Mail: Also reported Mata’utia’s suspension, with Denniss or Nathan Ross coming into centre, and Uate or Mamo as the replacement.

Wacko’s Whispers: Reported both Uate and Mamo as coming into the Knights team, with Denniss competing with Nathan Ross for Mata’utia’s spot. Also suggested Vete or Sam Lisone would start, but with Ben Matulino dropping to the bench.

Game 7: Tigers v Eels

Jason Taylor once again left the NRL world wondering, as he started Robbie Farah from the bench for the Tigers. Dene Halatau moved to hooker, with Josh Aloiai starting. For the Eels, Peni Terepo was omitted from the bench, with David Gower added. Beau Scott was in doubt through injury.

NRL Late Mail: Reported no changes likely.

News Ltd Late Mail: Did report Farah was likely to start from the bench. Also reported Scott as likely to play.

Wacko’s Whispers. Reported Scott as likely to be out, with Kenny Edwards to start, and Gower coming onto the bench.

 

Game 8: Sharks v Storm

A couple of changes to end the round. For the Sharks, Matt Prior was again elevated from the bench to the starting team, with Sam Tagataese dropping to the bench. Jack Bird was in the concussion protocol. For the Storm, Curtis Scott started in the centres, although would sadly suffer leg fracture. Tohu Harris pushed into the second row, with Kevin Proctor omitted.

NRL Late Mail: Reported Bird as likely to play. Also suggested Scott would play, with Harris moving to the forwards, although no player was nominated to drop out.

News Ltd Late Mail: Also reported Bird would play, but that Scott was unlikely to play.

Wacko’s Whispers: Reported the Prior/Tagataese switch. Reported Scott as likely to come in, with Harris to the second row, Kenny Bromwich to the bench, and Ben Hampton being omitted.

 

The Season Scores:

NRL Late Mail

He’s Out Of Here: 22.5% (9 from 40)

There’s A Feeling: 80.0% (8 from 10)

Plans May Change: 66.7% (4 from 6)

Nothing To See Here: none

Musical Chairs: 8.3% (6 from 72)

The Replacements: 27.8% (15 from 54)

OVERALL: 23.1% (42 from 182)

OVERALL WITHOUT MUSICAL CHAIRS: 32.7% (36 from 110)

News Ltd Late Mail

He’s Out Of Here: 20.5% (9 from 44)

There’s A Feeling: 81.8% (9 from 11)

Plans May Change: 62.5% (5 from 8)

Nothing To See Here: none

Musical Chairs: 8.6% (7 from 81)

The Replacements: 35.1% (20 from 57)

OVERALL: 24.9% (50 from 201)

OVERALL WITHOUT MUSICAL CHAIRS: 35.8% (43 from 120)

 

Wacko’s Whispers

He’s Out Of Here: 22.9% (11 from 48)

There’s A Feeling: 29.4% (5 from 17)

Plans May Change: 60.0% (6 from 10)

Nothing To See Here: 100.0% (1 out of 1)

Musical Chairs: 13.2% (12 from 91)

The Replacements: 32.8% (21 from 64)

OVERALL: 24.2% (56 from 231)

OVERALL WITHOUT MUSICAL CHAIRS: 31.4% (44 from 140)

 

An improved performance from Wacko’s Whispers this week. Even with that improved performance, when you ignore the Musical Chairs category of movement within the 17-man squad, the News Limited Late Mail is still the most accurate. It is still disappointing to see the low success rates of all the sources, but maybe Wacko’s increase is the start of a trend. Let’s hope so; this game is hard enough to follow.

In fact, the Late Mail Buster himself is the subject of the tale of woe mentioned at the start of the article. He is not a great Fantasy player, but still tries to field a decent team each week. On Friday night he was going to be without internet access, so he checked the Late Mail. He has Granville as a hooker. NRL Late Mail and News Limited Late Mail said Granville would play, but Wacko’s said he would not. So the Late Mail Buster panicked, and dropped Granville, who went on to score 58.

To complete this little self-test, his second hooker is Jayden Nikorima. Overall, believing the wrong late mail cost this writer 45 points!

So when looking at the late changes, remember, the only true source is the lists published one hour before each game. Late Mail has been busted for another week, we’ll see you again for a look at Round 5.  

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